College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Predictions for Selection Committee Poll

The debate over which four teams belong in the College Football Playoff has become one of the most entertaining arguments in sports today.

We compare resumes and schedules, stack up impressive wins and form justifications for losses—that was a tough team on the road, they only lost by a few points, etc.). We ultimately end up arguing over which conferences are truly strong and which are just aided by media bias.

Of course, predicting what the selection committee will do with its rankings each week is just as much fun as arguing what we think it should do.

Namely, figuring out what it will do with the top four teams—let's be honest, only those first four rankings and maybe those of the closest contenders outside that group are relevant—is a fascinating guessing game.

Let's play that game here.

It's pretty obvious who the first three teams will be, and the order doesn't seem terribly relevant. Alabama will likely remain No. 1, Oregon will likely remain No. 2 and Florida State will likely remain No. 3. All three teams won this week, though the Seminoles once again had a close call—this time to Boston College.

Of the three, Florida State's undefeated record can't make up for the fact that it's played a weaker schedule than the top two teams and has really struggled against inferior competition.

Winning ultimately may be the only thing that matters, but for a selection committee trying to determine how to rank the teams in college football, an undefeated record doesn't preclude measuring who that team has beaten and how impressive it's looked in doing so.

In other words, Florida State doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt—even as the defending national champions.

Of course, not everyone agrees, as B/R Radio tweeted:

So those are the top three. Who will be No. 4?

Probably Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs may ultimately be hurt by Ole Miss' loss this weekend—the Rebels are Mississippi State's last marquee matchup unless Alabama loses and the Bulldogs get into the SEC title game—for the moment they still have a far more impressive resume than TCU, Baylor or Ohio State.

Sure, the wins over Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU don't look as strong as they once did, as those three teams have hit rough patches, but Mississippi State still played Alabama tough on the road.

It certainly didn't do anything in a 51-0 victory over Vanderbilt to warrant being dropped from the No. 4 spot.

"We cleaned up a lot from last week and made some plays," starting quarterback Dak Prescott told The Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com) after the game. "We won 51-0. If you don't think we controlled that game, then I don't know what you're looking for."

Yes, we've gotten to the point of the season where we're talking about game control as we search for any little clue that might indicate which one-loss team is better than another.

That's college football in a nutshell, everybody.

TCU's off week should leave it locked into the No. 5 spot, and Minnesota's win over Nebraska and Kansas State's win over West Virginia certainly bolstered their resumes. They probably weren't boosted enough to leapfrog Mississippi State, but the margin between these teams is closing.

Ohio State won once again, which may not help it this week but did guarantee its spot in the Big Ten title game, where it'll have the chance to not only win the conference but also pad its resume against a marquee opponent—likely Wisconsin.

It'll stay at No. 6 this week, but the fact that it still has a conference championship game to play, Mississippi State likely doesn't and TCU and Baylor don't is a huge boost for the Buckeyes.

Speaking of Baylor, the Bears aren't likely to leapfrog any of the one-loss teams until they play Kansas State on December 6. It's hard to imagine the committee would still consider TCU a better team than Baylor if the Bears had not only a head-to-head victory on their side but also the conference title.

Will that be enough to propel them over Mississippi State and Ohio State, however? That's harder to say.

Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech is still the worst of the group, but it has also really impressed down the stretch. Mississippi State would be the only playoff team to have not won a conference title if it were voted in, surely a mark against the Bulldogs, but they also played a brutal SEC slate and their lone loss came against the top team in the country.

But that's then. For now, don't expect the top four to change at all. Nothing in this latest week of college football suggests any changes to the playoff contenders is forthcoming.