Evgeny Gradovich vs. Jayson Velez: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
Saturday night in Omaha, Nebraska, IBF featherweight champion Evgeny Gradovich defends his belt against hard-punching contender Jayson Velez. Both of these fighters are undefeated.
The featherweight division is one of boxing's hottest at the moment, and this fight will have big ramifications for future unification bouts. Both champion and challenger look like potential rising stars.
The winner will have a very big opportunity to look good on this HBO-televised bout.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per BoxRec | Evgeny Gradovich | Jayson Velez |
| Record: | 19-0, 9 KOs | 22-0, 16 KOs |
| Height: | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Reach: | 67" | 70" |
| Weight: | 126 lbs | 126 lbs |
| Age: | 28 | 26 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Oxnard, California | Caguas, Puerto Rico |
| Rounds: | 128 | 91 |
Evgeny Gradovich is a native of Russia but has found a cozy new home in Oxnard, California, where he is one of numerous world champions trained by Robert Garcia. Gradovich's hard-nosed work ethic has allowed him to easily assimilate, as evidenced by his nickname, "The Mexican Russian."
Jayson Velez is the longer fighter and has the bigger punch. These two have a similar amount of professional experience, but Gradovich has faced better competition.
Main Storylines
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Evgeny Gradovich shot to prominence in March 2013 when he accepted an opportunity to challenge IBF featherweight champion Billy Dib on short notice. In just his 16th professional fight, Gradovich became a world title holder via split decision.
I actually think judge Don Ackerman was guilty of giving too much credit to the champion, Dib, in scoring the fight 114-112 in his favor. It was a competitive fight, but Gradovich clearly edged the champion to my eyes.
In the rematch in November 2013, Gradovich stopped Dib in Round 9.
Gradovich is a native of Siberia, but he lives and trains in Oxnard, California, at the famous Robert Garcia Boxing Academy. One of Garcia's many world champions, Gradovich's hard-nosed style has been warmly embraced by the Southern California fans, earning him the nickname "The Mexican Russian."
Jayson Velez could be on the brink of stardom. Puerto Rican fans are among the best in the world and are always anxious for another emerging champion to rally around. Velez has an exciting style with heavy hands. He's also a charismatic fighter who plays to the crowd.
Featherweight is a red-hot weight class right now, with all four belts held by compelling champions. Gradovich has the IBF belt. Veteran knockout artist Jhonny Gonzalez has the WBC belt.
Undefeated Nicholas Walters grabbed the WBA title with a brutal Round 6 TKO of Nonito Donaire last October. WBO champion Vasyl Lomachenko stole the show on the Manny Pacquiao pay-per-view last weekend. Three-division champion Abner Mares is also hanging around at 126.
So the winner of this fight should have the chance to take part in some of the biggest fights of 2015.
Strengths
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Evgeny Gradovich is a skilled pressure boxer. He has a very strong amateur background and a relentless work ethic.
Gradovich is a true ring general. He excels at controlling the tempo and forcing the fight to take place at his range.
Jayson Velez has very good length for a featherweight. His power is dangerous in both hands. He throws quick, fluid combinations, mixing up his attack to the body and head on the same exchange.
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Weaknesses
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Evgeny Gradovich has limited power for a world championship fighter. He mostly fights in a predictable direction, coming forward.
Jayson Velez is like a lot of young fighters with dangerous power; he tends to sell out too quickly looking for a fight-ending punch. He leaves a lot of space for a patient, smart fighter to counter him.
He also has a habit of bending at the waist rather than lowering his level at the knees. That could make him very vulnerable for an uppercut.
Evgeny Gradovich Will Win If...
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Evgeny Gradovich is the more technical fighter in this matchup. The Siberian native is also as tough and durable as anybody.
But he can't match power with Jayson Velez. The lanky challenger has dangerous pop in both hands.
So Gradovich needs to be the smarter fighter. He's got to control the tempo of the fight by consistently getting off first with his own jab and following up on the lead left quickly with a hook downstairs or an uppercut as he steps inside.
Gradovich needs to dictate the pace of this fight, and he needs to make sure he is forcing the action to take place on the inside of Velez's full extension. Gradovich is a pressure fighter. So to win he's going to need to neutralize Velez's power on the inside.
Jayson Velez Will Win If...
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The big challenge for Jayson Velez in this fight will be to keep Evgeny Gradovich at the full extension of his punches. The first part of doing that is making sure he's able to get off first with his own jab.
Gradovich is going to be looking to move inside, so Velez is going to need to be ready to slip back and re-establish his own distance. If Gradovich slips under his jab and moves in, Velez should look to fade back and catch the champion with his lead hook.
Velez needs to tighten up his defense in this fight. Gradovich may not be a monster puncher, but his power is respectable.
If Velez is defensively careless, Gradovich will exploit it to score. He'll pound away on Velez and wear him down over the course of the fight.
Prediction
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This fight has the potential to sneak up on people and be one of the more entertaining battles of the year. These are two undefeated fighters who come forward, looking to engage in close range and fight. Realistically, it could go either way.
But my hunch is that Evgeny Gradovich will be rugged enough to withstand Jayson Velez's power and that his superior ring generalship will allow him to edge out a close and exciting decision.
I think Gradovich retains the title by decision, 115-113.
Whoever wins this one, I hope to see him in a unification fight against another champion in the first part of 2015. There are too many great fights out there at featherweight to let the next year go by with nothing but alphabet-soup mandatories.
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