College Football Bowl Predictions 2014: NCAA Playoff Picks After Week 13 Results
If you asked any coach of a College Football Playoff contender what he thought about his team's position in the latest rankings, each one would tell you the same thing: We are focused on the next opponent.
After all, you don’t overlook Michigan if you are at Ohio State, Auburn if you are at Alabama, Florida if you are at Florida State, Ole Miss if you are at Mississippi State, Oregon State if you are at Oregon or even Texas if you are at TCU.
Fans and commentators can still look at the big picture, though. With that in mind, here is a look at the latest playoff projections heading into Week 14.
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Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Thanksgiving Treat: TCU at Texas
In a typical year, a matchup between Texas and TCU would be framed as a “big brother vs. little brother” matchup in the state of Texas in which the in-state bully, the Longhorns, were challenged by the upstart Horned Frogs.
Not in 2014.
TCU is right in the thick of the College Football Playoff race, but Texas is red-hot after an abysmal start to the season. The Longhorns have three straight wins, and they all came by three-score margins. What’s more, the early losses to BYU, UCLA, Oklahoma, Baylor and Kansas State are understandable.
The losses to the Bruins and the Sooners came in heartbreaking fashion as well.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the overall pressure, which should be more of an issue for playoff contender TCU than Texas. ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit suggested as much:
Texas has a chance in this game because of its defense, which is the strength of the team.
The Longhorns are 24th in the nation in points allowed per game and held Oklahoma State to seven points, the dynamic West Virginia offense to 16 and Texas Tech to 13 the last three games.
TCU wins games with its offense, and it will be critical for the Longhorns to continue the defensive momentum.
TCU is eighth in the country in passing yards per game and 28th in rushing yards per game. That is the balanced attack that is a nightmare for defensive coordinators, and quarterback Trevone Boykin, who is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender, is the director. He has a head-turning 3,021 passing yards, 548 rushing yards and 31 total touchdowns and will look to add more Thursday.
Kansas State coach Bill Snyder was certainly impressed by Boykin, via Stephen Hawkins of the Associated Press, via The News & Observer:
"He provides a great deal of spark and leadership to his football team. Obviously his quickness and vision on the field, and ability to make big plays on his own ... It's just his innate ability to get to the right place the right time. He can make people miss. He just has a great sense of where he is and how to get where he needs to go.
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Impressive defense or not, stopping the Horned Frogs attack that put up 82 points in a single game earlier in the season is much easier said than done.
The other side of the ball has been the problem for Texas. It is 98th in the nation in scoring offense and scored fewer than 10 points three different times this season, including a shutout loss to Kansas State. For what it’s worth, quarterback Tyrone Swoopes threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns against Oklahoma State the last time out and may have turned a corner.
The TCU defense has been vulnerable at times this season, and it gave up 30 points to Kansas, 30 to West Virginia, 61 to Baylor and 33 to Oklahoma. If Swoopes can establish some momentum early against that defense and give his own group a lead, an upset will suddenly become a possibility.
The Longhorns will also have the home crowd on their side in a raucous atmosphere under the lights. The Horned Frogs will feel the pressure in the second half with a playoff spot on the line and make a crippling mistake against an opportunistic Texas defense.
Get ready for chaos. The first upset of the week will take place Thursday.
Prediction: Texas 31, TCU 24
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