College Football Playoff 2014: Top 25 Predictions After Week 14 AP Rankings
Another week of the 2014 college football season is in the books, which means you should start paying attention to the selection committee's Top 25.
It's funny to watch fans get worked up about the first couple of batches of rankings. Remember when everybody was upset about two SEC teams being in the College Football Playoff? That's not going to happen anymore. Things tend to correct themselves in college football
Now, it's time to start paying attention, though. Little time remains until the conference championships. The polls carry more weight because those on the outside looking in are running out of chances to impress the committee.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The playoff rankings have not yet been revealed, but a bevy of other polls are out. You can see the Associated Press poll below:
The AP poll isn't the be-all and end-all in terms of deciding the playoff rankings, but the committee will likely use it as a road map.
Top 25 Breakdown
Top Four
| 1st | Alabama Crimson Tide | 10-1 (6-1 SEC) |
| 2nd | Oregon Ducks | 10-1 (7-1 Pac-12) |
| 3rd | Florida State Seminoles | 11-0 (8-0 ACC) |
| 4th | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 10-1 (6-1 SEC) |
The composition of last week's Top Four will almost certainly remain the same. The order might be a little different, though.
The only team that could possibly get bounced out—and it would be a stretch—is Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs shut out Vanderbilt. The Commodores aren't a good team, but beating any FBS team 51-0 sends a message. It's the school's largest in-conference shutout in nearly 80 years, per ESPN Stats & Info:
Conversely, Mississippi State is really the only team that could move up as well.
The selection committee won't be impressed by Florida State's win over Boston College. The Seminoles needed a 26-yard field goal from Roberto Aguayo with three seconds remaining to put away the Eagles. FSU is obviously deserving of a Top Four spot but perhaps not the top seed.
Meanwhile, Oregon and Alabama both beat weak opponents by 34 points, so there's little reason to elevate or demote the Ducks and/or the Crimson Tide.
The realistic move would be moving Mississippi State up to third and dropping FSU to fourth, which still seems unlikely.
Don't be surprised if the playoff seeds are unchanged when the rankings are revealed.
Playoff Hopefuls
| 5th | Ohio State Buckeyes | 10-1 (7-0 Big Ten) |
| 6th | Baylor Bears | 9-1 (6-1 Big 12) |
| 7th | TCU Horned Frogs | 9-1 (6-1 Big 12) |
| 8th | UCLA Bruins | 9-2 (6-2 Pac-12) |
| 9th | Georgia Bulldogs | 9-2 (6-2 SEC) |
| 10th | Michigan State Spartans | 9-2 (6-1 Big Ten) |
TCU is bound to get dinged for not not playing anyone of note as the season ends. After their big win over Kansas State on Nov. 8, the Horned Frogs finish with Kansas—whom they beat—Texas and Iowa State. That's not exactly a murderers' row.
TCU was off this week, which opens the door for the selection committee to begin souring on the Horned Frogs and throwing its support behind other power-five teams.
If somebody supplants TCU for fifth, it will likely be Ohio State. Critics rightfully bring up the loss to Virginia Tech, but there's no question this is a completely different Buckeyes team. J.T. Barrett isn't a Heisman Trophy favorite, but he's on the list of guys on the periphery.
What could hurt Ohio State is the fact that it was ahead of Indiana by just a point heading into the fourth quarter. The Buckeyes might've won by 15 points, but it wasn't a real positive win:
"Even if OSU tacks on another TD or two against IU, this game isn't going to help those playoff hopes much.Not when OSU was a 34.5-point fave
— ESPN Big Ten (@ESPN_BigTen) November 22, 2014"
With that said, the committee could favor Baylor more than the Buckeyes. The Bears had a decisive 49-28 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday. They were up 42-14 in the fourth quarter before the Cowboys got two garbage-time touchdowns.
"I think our team's record speaks for itself," said Baylor head coach Art Briles, per the Austin Statesman. "I think good teams find ways to win, and that's kind of what we did."
Baylor sits fifth in the AP poll, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Bears there in the playoff rankings as well.
The wild card will be UCLA. The committee was high on the Bruins in Week 13, placing them ninth. A 38-20 win over No. 19 USC will only embolden the group.
FoxSports.com's Stewart Mandel thinks UCLA will likely be no lower than eighth, and he also argued that the Bruins could still sneak into the playoffs.
"It's still a long shot, but if all hell breaks loose—if Georgia or Missouri upsets the SEC West champ in Atlanta, or Ohio State falls in the Big Ten title game—then a two-loss UCLA team that ends its season by beating one-loss Oregon would have a solid case for the Top Four," he wrote.
The only problem for UCLA is that it has struggled mightily against Oregon and Stanford—the two teams the Bruins would need to beat in order to make the playoff.
The Rest
| 11th | Kansas State Wildcats | 8-2 (6-1 Big 12) |
| 12th | Arizona Wildcats | 9-2 (6-2 Pac-12) |
| 13th | Arizona State Sun Devils | 9-2 (6-2 Pac-12 |
| 14th | Auburn Tigers | 8-3 (6-1 SEC) |
| 15th | Wisconsin Badgers | 9-2 (6-1 Big Ten) |
| 16th | Ole Miss Rebels | 8-3 (4-3 SEC) |
| 17th | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 9-2 (6-2 ACC) |
| 18th | Missouri Tigers | 9-2 (6-1 SEC) |
| 19th | Oklahoma Sooners | 8-3 (5-3 Big 12) |
| 20th | Clemson Tigers | 8-3 (6-2 ACC) |
| 21st | Minnesota Golden Gophers | 8-3 (5-2 Big Ten) |
| 22nd | Louisville Cardinals | 8-3 (5-3 ACC) |
| 23rd | Colorado State Rams | 10-1 (6-1 MW) |
| 24th | Marshall Thundering Herd | 11-0 (7-0 C-USA) |
| 25th | Boise State Broncos | 9-2 (6-1 MW) |
You don't want to dismiss a large swath of the rankings, but, in reality, just one of the 15 teams listed above has a shot at making the playoff. The only team with a remote chance is Missouri, and that's only if the Tigers win the SEC Championship Game and the other dominoes fall as needed.
Missouri would have to hope that enough one-loss teams above it lose between now and the end of the season. The selection committee might love the SEC, but it's unlikely to love the SEC enough to send in the Tigers ahead of a one-loss Baylor, TCU, Ohio State or Oregon team.
It's also worth watching whether the committee gives any love to the group-of-five conferences. With USC, Utah, Nebraska and Duke all falling out of the AP Top 25, the chance is there for some combination of Marshall, Boise State and Colorado State to sneak into the playoff rankings.
Mike Hamrick, Marshall's athletic director, believes those schools in the group of five deserve to at least know where they are in relation to the power-five teams, per CBSSports.com's Jon Solomon:
"But Hamrick does question why undefeated Marshall has yet to be ranked. And he is frustrated by what he views as the increasing divide between the so-called haves and have-nots even in college football rankings.
"I didn't think it was going to become that way, but then you see these rankings every week with three-loss teams making it," Hamrick said. "It's very confusing if you're a [Group of Five] school. We don't know how we fit in and that's why I wish there was at least some transparency. Hey, if we're No. 50, just tell me we're 50. I don't care. But the average fan's take right now is [the committee is] more worried about ranking the Power Five and then they'll just deal with us later, which was not what my understanding was of when this was all put together."
"
It's time to start giving the Thundering Herd and the Rams some love.
The next-best options are 6-5 Arkansas and 7-4 LSU. The SEC has some good teams at the top, but the conference has been exposed lately. There's no way a four- or five-loss team deserves Top 25 consideration.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
