Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Complete Game Preview

On paper, the Oregon State Beavers should be no match for the second-ranked Oregon Ducks. In reality though, the Beavers pose a significant threat to Oregon’s postseason aspirations.

For the Ducks (10-1, 7-1), the route to the College Football Playoff is simple: Win and you’re in. The same goes for Marcus Mariota’s Heisman Trophy chances—beat Oregon State, beat the Pac-12 South champion and the Ducks will likely have their first Heisman winner and a playoff game on Jan. 1.

As they say, that’s easier said than done.

While the Beavers (5-6, 2-6) are coming off of a tough loss to Washington, they’re still capable of pulling off a big upset. Just ask Arizona State.

Oregon State seems to relish playing ranked teams in Corvallis. Moreover, playing in Corvallis at night is a terrifying prospect, especially for a team like Oregon that has so much on the line. Throw in the fact that weird things tend to happen in the Pac-12 after dark, and you begin to understand why some Ducks fans may be concerned.

We haven’t even mentioned that this is the Civil War. You can go ahead and throw all of the stats out of the window.

The Ducks will have the weight of the world on their shoulders from here on out. Everyone expects the Ducks to win, and win big. Can they deal with the pressure and turn it into a positive?

Here's what you need to know.

Date: Saturday, Nov. 29

Time: 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET

Place: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Oregon

TV: ABC

Line: Oregon (-17.5), according to Odds Shark

Oregon Keys to Victory

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Jump Out Early

The best-case scenario for the Ducks in their regular-season finale is to jump on the Beavers early and often. After 11 games, the Ducks have suffered a ton of devastating injuries to key contributors. The Ducks need to have their stars healthy and rested by the time the Pac-12 title game rolls around on Dec. 5.

What’s the best way to rest your starters? Ensure a victory early.

All three potential Pac-12 title game opponents (UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State) play on Friday Nov. 28. Regardless of which team wins the South, they’ll have an extra day of rest and preparation on the Ducks. That’s a huge advantage.

If the Ducks compound that advantage by having to play a full four quarters against Oregon State, they will be doing themselves a disservice.

The Ducks need to get a win by any means necessary. If they can get it done early, they’ll be really helping themselves a great deal.

Pass Defense

Oregon State is ranked No. 25 in the country in passing offense. Conversely, the Ducks are ranked No. 117 against the pass. The Beavers should have a clear advantage if they decide to target the Ducks passing defense early and often.

That being said, the Ducks have been slowly improving against the pass and only allowed 105 yards through the air last week against Colorado. Moreover, the Buffaloes attempted 32 passes and averaged 3.3 yards per attempt.

Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion has a history of beating up on the Ducks secondary. In 2013, Mannion threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns in Eugene and will likely find similar success this season.

The Beavers rushing attack had a big game against Arizona State two weeks ago, but they’ve struggled for most of the year and are ranked No. 114 in the nation in rushing. Needless to say, the Beavers are going to air it out.

The Ducks should be focused on defending the pass first and worry about the Beavers running game later. That strategy could bite them in the butt; however, it’s Oregon’s best course of action right now.

Oregon State Keys to Victory

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Get a Lead 

The Ducks are not used to playing from behind, though they’ve done more of it this year than in years past. Oregon is a team that operates better with a lead. Moreover, the Ducks would love to get their starters out early, if possible.

If the Beavers are able to jump out to a lead early, they may be able to break the Ducks' spirit. Also, if the Beavers get a lead they can try to control the clock with their run game.

The shorter you can make a game against Oregon, the better. I know the Ducks could care less about their time of possession; however, they do care about the number of possessions they get. If the Beavers are able to get a lead and run the ball, they’ll have a better shot at knocking off the Ducks.

Pound the Rock

Yes, the Beavers passing attack is much better than their running game. However, the Ducks are going to expect Sean Mannion to try to beat them with his arm. The Beavers should consider flipping the script and trying to defeat the Ducks with their ground game.

Oregon State’s best game of the season was their 35-27 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona State on Nov. 15. In that game, the Beavers gained 247 yards on the ground and both Terron Ward and Storm Woods had more than 125 yards rushing.

If the Beavers are successful on the ground, their chances of beating the Ducks are much higher.

Oregon Players to Watch

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Ifo Ekpre-Olomu

For a preseason second team All-American, senior cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu has had a very quiet year. Though he’s still a top NFL prospect, Ekpre-Olomu has struggled at times this year.

That being said, it looks like he’s coming into his own at the right time. Against Colorado, Ekpre-Olomu was given the difficult assignment of guarding wide receiver Nelson Spruce.

Coming into the game, Spruce was leading the country with 9.9 receptions per game. Ekpre-Olomu held Spruce to two catches for 16 yards. While part of Spruce’s suppressed numbers had to do with Colorado’s quarterback situation, Ekpre-Olomu did a fantastic job against a much larger receiver.

The Ducks are going to need Ekpre-Olomu to be the lockdown corner we thought he would be in August, especially against Oregon State’s potent passing attack.

Royce Freeman

It seems like every week we talk about how important Royce Freeman is to Oregon’s offense. Well, he is. In fact, outside of Marcus Mariota he is Oregon’s most important player.

Freeman has broken numerous Oregon freshman records this season and has now rushed for 1,050 yards and 16 touchdowns this season.

Moreover, Freeman provides the Ducks with a physical style of running that they’ve lacked in years past, especially in the red zone. In short, Freeman is an absolute monster.

While the Beavers defense is better at stopping the run than the pass, the Ducks will rely heavily on Freeman as they attempt to put this game out of reach early.

Expect another 100-yard performance from the true freshman.

Oregon State Players to Watch

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Sean Mannion

Mannion has had a long and distinguished career at Oregon State. If the Beavers fail to beat the Ducks, this will be his last game in the orange and black. In total, Mannion has thrown for 13,438 yards—a Pac-12 record—and 82 touchdowns—sixth in Pac-12 history.

While Mannion has won a lot of games and set a ton of records at Oregon State, he has yet to beat the Ducks. Needless to say, he’ll have a ton of motivation on Saturday.

As we mentioned, the Ducks pass defense has been pretty terrible this season. Mannion should be able to throw for over 300 yards pretty easily. However, Mannion’s biggest concern should be avoiding turnovers.

The senior quarterback has thrown 54 interceptions over the past four seasons—tied for the fourth-most in Pac-12 history. If the Beavers are to have any shot at winning, Mannion must protect the ball at all costs.

Storm Woods

With senior running back Terron Ward out for the year, Storm Woods will be left to carry the load for the Beavers. 

On the season, Woods has rushed for 638 yards and 4 touchdowns and has also caught 20 passes for 121 yards and one touchdown.

Oregon’s rush defense is better than its pass defense. Oregon State’s passing attack is better than its rushing game. Based on statistics alone, the Beavers should use their strengths and attack Oregon’s weakness.

However, the way to beat Oregon is with a strong run game. Just ask Stanford or Arizona. If Storm Woods get going, it could be a long night for the Ducks.

What They're Saying

Dean Hare/Associated Press

Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich is preparing for a raucous atmosphere at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, according to Andrew Greif of The Oregonian:

"

We don't control Oregon State's mindset, I know they're going to be fired up and ready to play and rocking and rolling. That will be a great atmosphere, as it always is, for game day. We need to have a great Sunday, we need to have a great Monday, we need to have a Tuesday that leads up to our best showing on Saturday.

"

Fox Sports' 13-member panel has the Ducks ranked No. 1 in their playoff poll this week. Panel member Rob Stone believes the Ducks have a shot at the college football trifecta:

"

Wins over what I believe will be top-10 teams Michigan State and UCLA, coupled with their recent domination of their schedule (six straight games with at least 42 points in double-digit wins), earns them the top spot. They have a solid chance to win college football's treble (conference champion, Heisman winner, national title).

"

Oregon State head coach Mike Riley says the Ducks are playing their best football of the season right now, according to Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune:

"

(The Ducks) are a really good team, and they're playing their best ball of the year. They're very consistent. They have lots of talent and they have a unique quarterback in (Marcus) Mariota, for sure.

"

Prediction

Steve Dykes/Associated Press

All of the statistics point to the Ducks cruising to victory No. 11. However, those numbers only tell part of the story. What the statistics cannot measure are the intangibles. They cannot measure the pressure. They cannot measure the rivalry.

There’s a chance that the numbers simply play out as they’re supposed to and that the Ducks jump on the Beavers early and never relinquish the lead. That’s been Oregon’s M.O. over the past six games.

But with all that’s at stake for Oregon, it’s fair to ask if the Ducks are ready for this moment. Sure, Oregon has big-game experience. Sure, the Ducks have been highly ranked before. However, if we’re being honest, the Ducks have struggled in big games when all of the pressure has been squarely on their shoulders.

All of this pressure will come to a head in the Pac-12 Championship Game. That being said, Oregon State stands between the Ducks and their goal of reaching the College Football Playoff. If the Ducks can’t beat Oregon State, next week’s championship becomes somewhat irrelevant. Yes, it would still be great for the Ducks to add a Pac-12 title to their resume. Still, it would be a letdown.

Oregon will likely never have another quarterback as great as Marcus Mariota. Let’s not kid ourselves; this is Mariota’s last regular-season game as Oregon’s quarterback. The Ducks are at a level where their goals should be loftier than a Pac-12 title. The Ducks are playing for a national title and they have the quarterback to lead them.

The Ducks have to understand and embrace this moment. I think they will. This year’s version of the Civil War will be close, as the Ducks will come out a bit cautious. However, they’ll eventually start firing on all cylinders and will advance to 11-1 with a two-touchdown victory.

Oregon 38, Oregon State 24

Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.