Miami Heat Must Find Identity Outside Dwyane Wade
In order to move on from LeBron James' departure, the Miami Heat need an identity. Less than 15 games into a season simultaneously teeming with promise and problems, they've found one. A familiar one.
The wrong one.
Dwyane Wade has, once again, become the Heat's performance lifeline. Long the face of the franchise, James relegated him to sidekick duty for four years. In his absence, Wade's face would still be there, but it would be Chris Bosh carrying Miami into a delicate era, reprising the role he played in Toronto as his team's primary barometer.
But that hasn't happened to start 2014-15. These Heat are instead turning back the clock and not in a good way. It's 2009-10 all over again. Their identity begins and ends with Wade. And just as that wasn't enough then, it isn't enough now.
Wade's Presence Is Being Felt...
Statistically speaking, it is enough—when Wade is on the floor.
The Heat are scoring at a rate of 110.6 points per 100 possessions with Wade in the game, the equivalent of the league's second-best offense, according to NBA.com (subscription required). They're hitting a higher percentage of their shots overall (48.2 percent) and even their three-pointers (38.3 percent). Both marks would rank among the Association's six best.
Bosh has played particularly well alongside Wade. His offensive efficiency climbs by nearly 10 points per 100 possessions beside him, and his shooting percentages are up across the board, per NBA.com.
And then there's the matter of Wade himself. He's averaging 19.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game on 50.8 percent shooting. The 33-year-old is also posting the team's highest player efficiency rating (23.9), and his impact on the offensive end cannot be overstated.
The Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman noted an early Heat victory as it relates to Wade's back-to-back complete games thus far this season equaling last year's total:
Both the ball and his teammates move better with him running the show. The Heat lack a true and established point guard, but Wade has served his squad well as the top playmaker.
Around 65.7 percent of their buckets come off assists when he's in the game, which would rank second among all teams, according to NBA.com. Wade himself is assisting on 41.4 percent of his teammates' baskets when on the floor, which would not only be a career high but ranks fifth among qualified players, behind only John Wall (44.5), Chris Paul (47.2), Rajon Rondo (48) and the injured Ricky Rubio (54.2).
Dan Devine of Yahoo Sports offered even more praise for Wade's offensive game earlier this month:
"The impact of Wade's facilitating extends beyond just the impressive number of dimes he's dropping, too. Per SportVU, Wade's third in the league in "free throw assists," or passes leading to a trip to the line where the shooter made at least one freebie (1.3 per game) and 19th in secondary, or "hockey," assists (1.4 per game).
It's great that Wade's happy to have the ball in his hands, but we're betting Spoelstra's more excited by how his increased willingness to get it out of them has bolstered Miami's attack.
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It would seem that the Heat, then, are just fine leaning on Wade more than anyone else.
And they are.
When he's actually playing.
Which he hasn't been.
So they haven't been fine.
...But His Absence is Being Felt More
Frequent rest and relaxation is a reality when it comes to Wade's physical maintenance. He's never gone an entire season without missing at least five games, and he sat out an average of 16 per season over the last four years.
Such upkeep became an obstacle even with James in the lineup. Now that he's gone, it's a biting burden that is both unavoidable and irreversibly harmful. Playing him 70-plus games isn't an option; Wade is going to miss time. When he does, it's going to hurt.
It just shouldn't be this damaging.
"When you don't have that guy on the court, it's a huge void that you have to fill," Bosh said, per the Sun Sentinel's Shandel Richardson. "I think it's both a good and a bad thing. We want him out there, but at the same time our rookies are gaining a ton of experience and our new guys are gaining a ton of experience. It's forcing the chemistry to happen a lot sooner."
We'll have to take Bosh's word for it at the moment, because the numbers don't support his claims.
Miami is 1-3 in the four games Wade has missed to date. Two of those losses have come against supposedly inferior teams in the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks, and the average margin of defeat through these losses is 11.7 points.
While the Heat's defense has allowed fewer points per 100 possessions without Wade on the floor, it's been substantially worse on the offensive end, per NBA.com.
When he's on the bench, they're running the equivalent of a bottom-10 offense that would rank 19th in field-goal percentage (44.7). They're also coughing the ball up 17.7 percent of the time without him, which would make them the fourth-most turnover-prone team in the league.
That shouldn't happen.
Improving without Wade will never be an option, to be sure. There will always be some kind of adverse statistical drop-off on the offensive end. That the Heat were a better point-piling contingent without him last year, per NBA.com, only validates' James' profound ability to carry a team on his own. Wade's absences become a bigger problem without him.
But that's where Bosh is supposed to come in. He's being paid like the franchise cornerstone to give Miami that identity outside Wade and James. He's just not playing up to snuff, as noted in game stats provided by NBA on ESPN:
Through his first 12 games, Bosh is averaging 20.6 points on a career-worst 42.6 percent shooting. Both the Heat's offense and defense are also performing better without him on the floor, according to NBA.com, and he's still predominantly living on the perimeter; more than 71 percent of his field-goal attempts are coming outside eight feet, where he's shooting just 40 percent.
This is not the Bosh whom Miami bargained for over the summer. He's facing more defensive pressure overall, but 57 percent of his shots have been open or wide-open looks. That, at the very least, is comparable to last year, when 60 percent of his shots were similarly classified. His shooting efficiency shouldn't be hemorrhaging like it is now.
Moreover, this isn't something the Heat can afford to have happen long term, as Bleacher Report's Tom Sunnergren explains:
"Outside of Bosh, Miami’s superstar appeal is flawless. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has already proven that, with sufficient talent, he can craft a system on both sides of the floor that allows his players to thrive. The city of Miami has demonstrated that it’s an attractive destination for the young and super-rich. Pat Riley can build a fine supporting cast.
The remaining puzzle piece is that the player on Miami’s roster making superstar money starts playing like it. When he re-signed with the Heat this summer, Bosh was billed as a bridge between one era of Heat champs and the next. Things can change fast, but at the moment, the center appears to be a liability.
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Free agency will be a huge factor as the Heat move forward. Their financial commitments are flexible and that, along with an expected cap eruption in 2016, gives them the means to add prime-time players over the next few summers.
To really enter that conversation, though, the Heat need more than cash and Wade. To really compete for something more than a lottery finish this year, they need to be more than him.
Other players aside from Bosh have to step up in his absence and return. Luol Deng, Mario Chalmers and Shawne Williams—each of whom is averaging in double figures while shooting better than 45 percent from the floor—need to augment their production and aggression when he's on the bench.
Rookie Shabazz Napier must morph into an offensive bellwether who can effectively direct the offense when Wade cannot. Josh McRoberts needs to remain healthy and shoot better than 16.7 percent from deep.
Something, anything, different needs to happen.
An Identity Search Run Afield
There is no surviving an 82-game season the way these Heat are playing now. Their current model puts them at the mercy of Wade's health, paving the way for more losses like those to the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday night, when they allowed 110 points, let up 13 three-pointers and dished out just 11 assists on 30 baskets.
“Not a whole lot to say,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after his team fell to Los Angeles, via the Miami Herald's Joseph Goodman. “We got blitzed.”
Blitzed, yes.
Blindsided, no.
Nothing the Heat face now is shocking. They knew the stakes when James left, and now the satisfaction of admirably retooling the roster following his exit has subsided. It's since been replaced by the uneasiness of knowing that Wade's abilities have given them an identity his availability cannot sustain—which, really, is the same as having no identity at all.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, and are accurate as of games played on Nov. 20, 2014. Salary information via ShamSports.
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