Predicting the Winner of Every College Football Conference
It’s crunch time now. We’ve reached the final stretch of the 2014 college football season, with a little over two weeks to go until the inaugural College Football Playoff is set and bowl matchups are decided.
To get there, though, we need to determine champions in every FBS league. With 12 weeks of play in the books, every league title picture has crystallized (well, mostly). We know which teams are in contention, which teams are playing out the string and which teams have a real chance of hoisting hardware in the first full weekend of December.
That’s what this feature is all about. We’re predicting every league champion when the dust settles on the 2014 regular season. We’re looking at the current standings, teams’ remaining schedules and current momentum in making these selections. And, of course, these are hardly set in stone. That’s why they play the games.
American Athletic Conference
1 of 10
Current leader: Memphis
The American Athletic Conference is one of the toughest league races to handicap with three weeks left. Entering league play, East Carolina (with wins over ACC foes North Carolina and Virginia Tech) looked like the favorite, but losses to Temple and Cincinnati have left the Pirates chasing a trio of teams.
Memphis enters this weekend a half-game ahead of Cincinnati and Central Florida, but all three teams have one defeat each. Under Justin Fuente, the Tigers are one of the nation’s best turnaround stories. They’ve already qualified for their first bowl game since 2008, but they want more. With home games against South Florida and UConn left, they’re a strong favorite to claim at least a piece of the league title.
Tommy Tuberville and Cincinnati have three league games left: at UConn, at Temple and closing the season at home vs. Houston. All three games are winnable, but Temple and Houston could be dangerous. Cincy has an impressive passing offense led by Gunner Kiel, averaging 322.7 passing yards per game, No. 9 nationally.
Central Florida hosts winless SMU this week, then travels to South Florida and East Carolina to end the regular season. The Knights are just 1-3 away from home this season, and winning at ECU on a Thursday night will be difficult. Expect Memphis and Cincinnati to tie for the title, with the Tigers winning the crown by virtue of their 41-14 rout of the Bearcats on Oct. 4.
Projected champion: Memphis
Atlantic Coast Conference
2 of 10
Current leader: Florida State
You might not like Florida State. You might have picked against the Seminoles. You might have counted the Seminoles out, multiple times. They don’t care. It doesn’t matter. Jimbo Fisher’s team just keeps winning, winning and winning.
The defending BCS national champions have won a nation-best 26 consecutive games and are 10-0 entering Saturday’s ACC finale against Boston College. They’ve been far from dominant this season, winning four games by six points or less and overcoming double-digit road deficits at N.C. State, Louisville and Miami.
It doesn’t matter. They just keep winning. They’ve already clinched a berth in the ACC title game and are a strong bet to finish the season unbeaten and make the College Football Playoff.
FSU coach Jimbo Fisher told Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel that his team has proved itself as one of the nation's best.
"Everybody talks about this team — 'it doesn't do this, it doesn't do that' — well measure this team for 60 minutes. When you measure this team up for 60 minutes, it measures up pretty dagum good to anybody, anywhere. Anybody, anywhere.
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Defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston has already thrown more interceptions (12) than he did all last season (10), but he has shown moxie in leading multiple second-half comebacks. Senior Rashad Greene is one of the nation’s best wide receivers, and freshman tailback Dalvin Cook is showing why he was one of the 2014 recruiting class’s most sought-after prospects.
FSU still must face Florida (which has already fired Will Muschamp) and then Georgia Tech in the ACC title game, and while the Yellow Jackets’ flexbone will offer a challenge, the Seminoles have proved they can overcome challenges.
Projected champion: Florida State
Big 12 Conference
3 of 10
Current leaders: Kansas State, TCU
With its nine-game, round-robin schedule, the Big 12 boasts that it selects “one true champion.” With three weeks left in the regular season, that might be easier said than done. Kansas State’s 26-20 win over West Virginia Thursday night vaulted it back into a tie for the league lead with TCU; both teams are 6-1 in Big 12 play. Baylor (5-1) is a half-game behind the pair.
Kansas State has a solid all-around team. The Wildcats host suddenly feisty Kansas next week before traveling to Baylor for the regular-season finale. TCU is riding a five-game win streak. The Horned Frogs, who have the nation’s No. 4 scoring offense (45.9 ppg) travel to Texas for a Thanksgiving night showdown before ending the regular season by hosting a bad Iowa State team that is still winless in Big 12 play.
Baylor finishes the season with three consecutive home games. The Bears host Oklahoma State this week and a reeling Texas Tech team next week before finishing up with the Wildcats. They boast the nation’s top scoring offense at 50.1 points per game, which will thrive on home ground.
Here’s how the tie will play out. TCU will win its final two games. Kansas State will beat Kansas, while Baylor will roll the Cowboys and Red Raiders. That makes Baylor-Kansas State crucial to avoid a three-way tie. The Wildcats were taken apart by TCU’s fast-paced offense, falling 41-20. Expect much the same in Waco.
Baylor and TCU finish the season atop the league standings. The Big 12 does not have an official tiebreak, per Matt Mosley of Fox Sports Southwest, but Baylor would have bragging rights thanks to its 61-58 win over the Horned Frogs earlier this season. Would it have a leg up on a College Football Playoff bid? That's another story entirely.
Projected champion: Baylor
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Big Ten Conference
4 of 10
Current leader: Ohio State
A year ago, Ohio State spent December in misery. The Buckeyes entered the Big Ten title game riding a 24-game winning streak, needing only a win over Michigan State to make the final BCS National Championship. The Spartans weren’t interested in being a footnote to history. They took down the Buckeyes 34-24, taking the Big Ten title and winning the Rose Bowl to finish a 13-1 season.
A year later, the Buckeyes are poised to erase 2013’s hurt.
Following a 49-37 win at Michigan State (now a fellow Big Ten East member), Urban Meyer’s team is the last remaining Big Ten unbeaten at 6-0. With only home games against Indiana and Michigan left, the Buckeyes are strong favorites to win the East.
It’s a huge accomplishment for a team that lost Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller to shoulder surgery in August and a testament to redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett’s development at quarterback.
In the West, Wisconsin holds the division lead following last week’s 59-24 demolition of Nebraska, highlighted by Melvin Gordon’s FBS single-game record of 408 rushing yards. The Badgers visit Iowa and host Minnesota to end the season, so they’re strong favorites to represent the West in Indianapolis.
They’ll push Ohio State hard, but the Buckeyes offense will be too potent. Ohio State will take the Big Ten and make a case for the College Football Playoff.
Projected champion: Ohio State
Conference USA
5 of 10
Current leader: Marshall
Marshall is the Rodney Dangerfield of the 2014 college football season. The Thundering Herd just can’t get no respect. Marshall averages 47.1 points per game (second best nationally) and allows 16.3 points per game (fifth best nationally). The Herd are 10-0, and their smallest margin of victory was a 42-27 season-opening win over Miami (Ohio). Their average margin of victory is 29.8 points per game.
But the Herd can’t crack the College Football Playoff Top 25 and have no shot at making the four-team playoff field, thanks to a weak schedule. It hasn’t played a power-five opponent, and unless it is selected for the group-of-five spot in the playoff-affiliated bowls, it won’t do so this season.
That’s unfortunate since senior quarterback Rakeem Cato (26 touchdowns, seven interceptions) is the best quarterback you haven’t seen play. SB Nation's Jeremy Mauss says the College Football Playoff committee is playing games with non-power-five programs.
With UAB and Western Kentucky left on the schedule, the Herd will win the C-USA East and will be the strong favorites to beat West representative Louisiana Tech in the C-USA title game. Just don’t expect the national media to take notice.
Projected champion: Marshall
Mid-American Conference
6 of 10
Leaders: Northern Illinois, Toledo
Despite losing Dave Doeren to N.C. State two years ago, Northern Illinois hasn’t missed a beat. The Huskies made the MAC title game a year ago and look like the class of the league this fall. At 9-2, 6-1 in league play entering next Friday’s season finale at Western Michigan, the Huskies have the MAC’s best resume thanks to wins over Northwestern and UNLV in non-conference play. They average 250.7 rushing yards per game, No. 17 nationally.
NIU already owns a tiebreaker over West co-leader Toledo thanks to Nov. 11’s 27-24 win over the Rockets. Western Michigan (7-3, 5-1) will be no easy out. The Chippewas still must win at Central Michigan to force a de facto West title game next Friday. But Northern Illinois’ offense and big-game pedigree gives it the edge to advance to the MAC title game.
There, the Huskies will get revenge over East champ Bowling Green for 2013’s league title game defeat.
Projected champion: Northern Illinois
Mountain West Conference
7 of 10
Leaders: Boise State, Colorado State, Utah State
The Mountain West is in a unique situation. Its highest-ranked team might not even win its own division. Colorado State has been impressive: The Rams are 9-1 and ranked No. 22 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll. But with two weeks left in the regular season, they’re tied for the Mountain Division lead at 5-1 with Boise State and Utah State.
And who did the Rams lose to? That’s right: Boise State, 37-24 on Sept. 6. The Rams will be favored to beat New Mexico and Air Force in the season’s final two weeks, but they need the Broncos to fall to claim the division title.
Boise State travels to Wyoming this week before hosting Utah State in the regular-season finale. Assuming it wins out, Colorado State will be rooting heavily for USU to upend Boise on its trademark blue field. If that happens, the Rams will take the division, thanks to a 16-13 win on Oct. 8. If not, the Broncos will win the Mountain.
No matter who wins, they’ll be favored to dispatch Nevada, San Diego State or Fresno State, the potential West reps in the league title game. Never bet against the Broncos playing a big game at home.
Projected champion: Boise State
Pac-12 Conference
8 of 10
Leader: Oregon
Oregon entered this season as the Pac-12’s top candidate to make the College Football Playoff, and with three regular-season weekends left, nothing has changed. Despite a surprising home loss to Arizona, the Ducks have already won the Pac-12 North, and at 9-1 (6-1 in league play), they would likely make the four-team field if they win out.
They boast a strong Heisman Trophy candidate in junior quarterback Marcus Mariota and a balanced, potent offense that averages 46 points per game (third best nationally). With Colorado and Oregon State left, they’re likely to enter the Pac-12 title game 11-1.
Who will they face? Good question. The South is muddled, with Southern California (6-2) holding a half-game lead over UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State (all 5-2).
Tiebreakers could come into play, but the Bruins look like the best of the four teams. They’d win tiebreakers over Arizona or Arizona State, and they face USC this week. With a win over the Trojans, UCLA would be the favorite to win the South.
But they won’t be favored to beat Oregon in the Pac-12 title game since the Ducks already own a 42-30 road win over the Bruins.
Projected champion: Oregon
Southeastern Conference
9 of 10
Current leader: Alabama
Entering last week, Alabama controlled its destiny for the SEC title and a College Football Playoff berth. Entering the final week of the regular season, the same will be true.
The Crimson Tide took care of the first part of the equation with a 25-20 home win over then-No. 1 Mississippi State last week, and following a tune-up with FCS foe Western Carolina this week, they will be in position to win the West by hosting Auburn in a crucial Iron Bowl.
The Tide have a capable offense and a nasty defense (allowing 14.5 points per game, which ranks second nationally). If it wins out, Alabama is a lock to make the College Football Playoff.
MSU can only win the West with wins over Vanderbilt and Ole Miss and an Alabama loss to Auburn. Ole Miss can win the West with wins over Arkansas and MSU and an Alabama loss to Auburn. It’s tough to project the Tide losing at home to Auburn, especially with the taste of last season’s stunning “Kick Six” defeat in their mouth.
Alabama will be a strong favorite over either Georgia or Missouri in the SEC title game. Georgia needs Mizzou to lose to either Tennessee or Arkansas to take the East title via tiebreaker by virtue of its blowout win over the Tigers earlier this season. Mizzou has been very up and down, so it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Gary Pinkel’s team slip up. Either way, neither team will be able to handle Alabama in the Georgia Dome.
Projected champion: Alabama
Sun Belt Conference
10 of 10
Leaders: Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette
The Sun Belt has an interesting quandary. Its best team might not be eligible for postseason play. In its first season of FBS play, Georgia Southern has been impressive. The Eagles, who are transitioning from the FCS, are 8-3 and unbeaten in league play at 7-0 with only Nov. 29’s home game against Louisiana-Monroe left. They lost at Georgia Tech and N.C. State by a combined five points, an impressive feat for a first-year FBS program.
However, they’re ineligible for postseason play unless the supply of six-win teams for bowl slots is completely exhausted. They can still win the Sun Belt, however.
Louisiana-Lafayette is a half-game behind at 6-0; the Ragin’ Cajuns have a home game left against Appalachian State (5-5, 4-2) and a road trip to Troy (3-4, 3-8) to end the season. They should be favored to win both games, which would then create a co-champion quandary.
At 11 teams, the Sun Belt is one team short of the 12 needed for a league title game, and Georgia Southern doesn’t play Louisiana-Lafayette this season. Expect co-champions, but only ULL will likely be able to represent the league in postseason play this season.
Projected co-champions: Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Lafayette
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
