Jets vs Bills: What Are Experts Saying About New York?
According to ESPN insider Adam Schefter, the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills will play their Week 12 game at Ford Field in Detroit Monday at 7 p.m. ET.
The weather component sways some advantages in favor of the Jets. Players get an extra day to recuperate from injuries, and the Bills haven’t been able to partake in routine practices in preparation for the game.
A brutal snowstorm has hijacked the storylines headed into this matchup. It's now the focual point in a contest between two divisional foes—one team playing for a playoff berth and the other for its dignity.
This game is expected to be totally different from the first meeting. Most analysts doubt that the Jets offense will repeat their turnover-ridden first quarter in Week 8.
Here, the experts weigh in on intricate factors leading up to an impromptu Monday night division showdown.
Rich Cimini: Jets Should Win a No-Win Situation
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ESPN New York reporter Rich Cimini unequivocally feels the snowstorm gives Gang Green a major advantage over the Bills. He also projects that a loss to a less prepared Buffalo team could hurt Rex Ryan’s chances of returning as head coach next season. He cites this week’s matchup as a must-win game for Ryan and the Jets:
"Allen Iverson's legendary rant notwithstanding -- 'We're talking about practice; we ain't talking about the game' -- practice is important. Jets coach Rex Ryan tried to downplay it, claiming the two divisional foes know each other so well that "mental reps" are good enough, but don't believe that for a second. On-the-field preparation is vital and, unless the NFL decides to postpone Sunday's 1 p.m. kickoff at Ralph Wilson Stadium, the Bills will be at a competitive disadvantage.
This is shaping up as a no-win situation for Ryan and the Jets (2-8). If they beat the under-practiced Bills (5-5), the postgame narrative will be, "Well, what did you expect?" If the Jets lose to a team whose preparation was significantly impacted by the snow? Wow, it could be the final nail in Ryan's coaching coffin. We're not talking Jets-Patriots here. We're talking about teams with similar talent, so, yeah, coaching and preparation matter.
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Cimini nailed a valid point. The fact that the Bills weren't able to use their facilities to practice gives an excuse for Buffalo to play poorly, and it eaves no excuse for the Jets to lose this game.
New York went through walkthroughs and practices as normal. By default, the Jets come in as a more prepared team. Most NFL analysts, gurus and coaches preach preparation as the key to winning.
Ryan argued divisional foes often know each other’s strengths and weaknesses well enough to be sufficiently prepared without routine practices.
This theory sounds reasonable, but the Jets are a totally different team compared to Week 8. This alone requires the Bills to prepare for an improved offense, specifically Michael Vick and Percy Harvin.
Kyle Orton has to locate Jaiquawn Jarrett on defense and figure out how to expose newcomer Marcus Williams in coverage. Practice would have been helpful on both sides of the ball.
Mental reps won’t be enough to prepare for Vick’s mobility and how he affects the defensive scheme when moving the pocket.
Jane McManus: Eric Decker on the Mend
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ESPN New York's Jane McManus highlights another small advantage of the extended rest period for the Jets coming off a bye week. Wide receiver Eric Decker has battled a hamstring injury all season, and he now feels as good as he did in Week 2, per McManus:
"New York Jets receiver Eric Decker said his hamstring injury improved over the bye week, and that it now feels as strong as it did before the Green Bay Packers game. Decker managed the injury through training camp, and then reinjured it in the Green Bay game on Sept. 14.
'I've got a little more bounce in my step and I'm not thinking about, every time I make a cut with my hamstring that it's going to aggravate it,' Decker said.
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Despite the hamstring injury, Decker still leads the team in receiving yards (450) and touchdown receptions (4). The former Denver Broncos receiver was expected to make a big splash, but Decker has taken a backseat to the hype surrounding Harvin coupled with a string of underwhelming performances.
Decker could be a more effective receiver as the season progresses—especially with Harvin getting more familiar with the offense.
Going forward, the Jets should be able to showcase their passing attack in full throttle if Vick can avoid turning the ball over. Both of his primary receivers are healthy and in tune with the offense.
Seth Walder: Protect the Football
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Moving away from the snowstorm narrative, New York Daily News reporter Seth Walder is more concerned with the Jets holding onto the football:
"The combination of the Bills’ impressive defensive line led by Mario Williams and Vick’s propensity for fumbling means hanging onto the football won’t be easy.
'If you fall behind against Buffalo, that doesn’t bode well for you,' Ryan said. 'Because that team is built to rush the pass, they lead the league (in sacks) I think (Rex is right, with 39 to be exact), and they’re doing a great job of intercepting the ball or forcing takeaways.'
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Vick hasn’t turned the ball over since stepping in for Geno Smith in the previous meeting with the Bills. Nonetheless, as a mobile quarterback, fumbles are a concern. Vick has three fumbles in four games, per ESPN.com; the Bills have 11 forced fumbles this season, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Buffalo’s defensive line will continue to play aggressively. Vick must be careful handling the ball when he’s scrambling. The Bills’ opportunistic defensive line will take chances with strip tackles if the signal-caller runs with careless ball security.
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'NFL Live' Pick: Split Even
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NFL Live analysts Mark Schlereth and Darren Woodson are split on this game. Schlereth favors the Jets, citing his distrust in Orton's ability to limit turnovers.
For New York, turnovers have been hard to come by this season with the exception of the Pittsburgh Steelers game. Kyle Orton hasn’t played particularly well in consecutive losses, but it’s not because he’s throwing interceptions. Opposing defenses have been able to take away his primary weapon, Sammy Watkins.
Watkins has only seven receptions for 59 yards in the last two games. The rookie’s lack of production has hurt Orton's viability—and the Bills’ chances of winning games. The Jets’ formula for beating Buffalo is based on how they’re able to neutralize the receiver that torched them for 157 yards and a touchdown four weeks ago.
The prediction was made prior to news that the game would be moved to Ford Field. Woodson’s argument that the Jets must impose their rushing offense on the strength of the Bills defense is a moot point.
Gang Green is running the ball well, averaging 144.5 yards per game in the last two games.
However, Bills cornerback Leodis McKelvin was placed on season-ending injured reserved on Monday, per the team’s official website. Vick has taken care of the football lately. Decker is feeling good. Harvin has another week of practice learning the offense. Jace Amaro could be the answer to the red-zone deficiencies on offense.
Offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg should explore exposing the Bills pass defense. Vick has viable weapons at his disposal, and the weather component is not a factor in Ford Field’s domed stadium. New York doesn’t have to win by trying to permeate Buffalo’s defensive line. Vick can simply attack overhead.
Erik Frenz: Bills Win
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Bleacher Report's AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz believes in the Bills defense enough to pull out the victory:
"The Bills have struggled with the Jets in years past, but if they want to be taken seriously as playoff contenders, this is one game they must win. Kyle Orton has plenty of weapons at his disposal to take advantage of the Jets' depleted secondary, but that depleted secondary kept Ben Roethlisberger in check, so it could be easier said than done for Orton and the Bills. A stifling performance from Buffalo's defense should be enough to pick up the win.
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An argument can be made in favor of the Jets having more weapons than the Bills on offense. Gang Green has two running backs capable of impacting this game. Vick has an explosive wide receiver in Harvin, and Decker is now healthy. When Mornhinweg finally discovers Amaro as a solution in the red zone, the Jets will have a potent offense.
Both teams are equals when grading the defensive line—each side is physical with the propensity to create unbearable pressure on the quarterback.
However, it remains to be seen how the absence of McKelvin in pass coverage will affect Buffalo’s ability to cover offenses featuring two productive wide receivers.
The first test will come Monday night. Corey Graham is starting in place of McKelvin, and he’ll be assigned to a healthy Decker or a versatile Harvin. Either receiver should have a big day against Graham, propelling the Jets to victory.
Prediction: Jets 27, Bills 20
Unless otherwise noted, all advanced statistics are provided by Pro-Football-Reference.
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