College Football Picks Week 13: Odds and Spread Predictions for Top 25 Teams

The College Football Playoff selection committee shocked the nation with its Week 13 rankings, as 9-1 Alabama catapulted to the top, 9-1 Oregon remained in second following its bye week and undefeated Florida State dropped to third. Mississippi State rounded out the Top Four.

Of course, fans of the Seminoles were outraged by the preposterous act of ranking one-loss teams ahead of an undefeated squad; however, a strong argument can be made against Florida State, as it hasn't produced many convincing wins despite a weak schedule.

Regardless of which side you are on, one thing is certain: No team is a lock to make the inaugural College Football Playoff just yet. We've seen plenty of unexpected finishes throughout the season, and Week 13 should be no different.

Before the action on college's gridiron returns, let's take a look at which teams and odds the nation's top contenders must deal with Saturday.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS
Western Carolina at No. 1 Alabama	off	Alabama
Colorado at No. 2 Oregon	ORE -32.5	Colorado
Boston College at No. 3 Florida State	FSU -17	Boston College
Vanderbilt at No. 4 Mississippi State	MSU -30.5	Vanderbilt
Indiana at No. 6 Ohio State	OSU -34	Indiana
Oklahoma State at No. 7 Baylor	BAY -28.5	Baylor
No. 8 Ole Miss at Arkansas	MISS -3.5	Ole Miss
No. 19 USC at No. 9 UCLA	UCLA -4	USC
Charleston Southern at No. 10 Georgia	off	Georgia
Rutgers at No. 11 Michigan State	MSU -22	Michigan State
Washington State at No. 13 Arizona State	ASU -15	Arizona State
Samford at No. 14 Auburn	off	Auburn
No. 15 Arizona at No. 17 Utah	Utah -4	Utah
No. 16 Wisconsin at Iowa	WISC -10	Wisconsin
No. 20 Missouri at Tennessee	TENN -3	Missouri
Kansas at No. 21 Oklahoma	OU -25	Kansas
Georgia State at No. 22 Clemson	CLEM -40.5	Clemson
No. 25 Minnesota at No. 23 Nebraska	NEB -10	Minnesota
No. 24 Louisville at Notre Dame	ND -3	Louisville

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 20.

Note: No. 12 Kansas State played Thursday, and No. 5 TCU and No. 18 Georgia Tech are on bye.

Upset Pick of the Week: No. 24 Louisville over Notre Dame

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Before we delve into the analysis here, let's get one thing straight: Even though Notre Dame isn't ranked, the Fighting Irish are home favorites over the Cardinals. That makes this an upset pick in the eyes of Vegas oddsmakers.

At the beginning of the season, this game line and corresponding prediction would have been completely different. After all, for the first half of 2014, Notre Dame looked to have one of the nation's best defenses and Louisville was trying to figure out how to recover from losing Teddy Bridgewater to the draft and DeVante Parker to injury.

Oh, how things have changed.

Let's use one word to describe Notre Dame's defense right now: pathetic. Sure, that seems harsh, but take a look at the team's three most recent performances. The Irish defense allowed 39 points to Navy, 55 to Arizona State and 43 to Northwestern. For those of you counting at home, that's a total of 137 points given up during that span.

This tweet from Chicago Tribune Sports sums it up for the Irish:

Making matters worse for the Irish are quarterback Everett Golson's ball-security issues. He's prone to fumbling whenever he's pressured, and he has thrown at least one interception in each of his last seven games. That's not a winning recipe.

Now, Notre Dame has Louisville coming to town. The Cardinals have been a completely different team since the return of Parker. In Week 12, he torched the Boston College secondary for 144 yards and a score on eight receptions. He brings a great balance to the Cardinals offensive attack.

The NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah is already considering Parker a first-round selection:

Judging by Notre Dame's recent performances, don't expect the Irish secondary to contain Parker. Expect a huge day for the NFL-bound wideout as Louisville narrowly escapes South Bend with a victory.

Prediction: Louisville 38, Notre Dame 34

Lock of the Week: No. 7 Baylor over Oklahoma State

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Get ready to see the nation's most high-flying offense pull off an enormous win at McLane Stadium on Saturday. The stars have aligned for the Bears to absolutely decimate Oklahoma State due to a late-season matchup.

The Cowboys looked like they could be one of the nation's top teams early in the season when they were playing nobodies. After a close loss to Florida State in Week 1, Oklahoma State went on a five-game winning streak against unranked opponents. Then, it ran into the meat of its schedule.

What ensued were four consecutive losses—three to ranked opponents and one to Texas. During those four contests, the Cowboys offense failed to score more than 14 points in any game. The team suffered its worst defeat of the season in Week 12, scoring just seven points against the Longhorns.

Here's a telling tweet regarding Oklahoma State's offense from Longhorn Network at halftime of that game:

On the flip side, we have a Baylor team that continues to light up scoreboards each and every week. Of the team's nine contests this season, it has scored at least 45 points in seven of them. Quarterback Bryce Petty also just broke a school passing record, according to ESPN Stats & Info:

Needless to say, facing off against Oklahoma State's 91st-ranked defense in Week 13 is a pretty favorable matchup.

Even more impressive has been the Bears defense. After giving up a good chunk of points to both TCU and West Virginia, Baylor responded by holding both Kansas and Oklahoma to just 14 points. Again, that's a good omen considering Oklahoma State's recent offensive struggles.

The fact that Baylor is playing at home is just the icing on the cake here. Expect the Bears to tear it up early and often in Week 13 against the Cowboys, putting up some gaudy numbers while their defense plays well enough to keep Oklahoma State well away from covering the spread.

Prediction: Baylor 56, Oklahoma State 14