College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Breaking Down Top Team's Key Matchups

It has taken 12 weeks and a lot of analysis, but the College Football Playoff standings are coming into focus. There's a clear trio at the top with Alabama, Oregon and Florida State, followed by all the chaos and uncertainty we have come to expect from the sport at this time of year. 

The BCS may be dead, but the arguments for which schools should be invited to the playoff party are still very much alive. It's funny how things try to change, yet when you get to the end of the year everything is the same as it ever was. 

Going over the latest rankings released by the selection committee, the first thing that jumps out is the various scenarios in which the standings can fall apart because of how the schedule works out. For a sport where teams have so much control over their schedule, it's amazing how things fall into place for drama in the final weeks. 

Here's a look at the key games left on the schedule for teams in the playoff race. Conference title games are not included since they haven't been set as of this writing. 

No. 1 Alabama: Key Game vs. No. 14 Auburn (Nov. 29)

The Iron Bowl has lost some of its luster thanks to Auburn losing back-to-back games against Texas A&M and Georgia, but it's still going to have huge playoff ramifications, assuming Western Carolina doesn't pull off the biggest upset in history against Alabama on Saturday. 

It's clear the selection committee loves Nick Saban's team, thanks in large part to wins over Texas A&M, LSU and Mississippi State. The last win was the biggest, as the Bulldogs were the No. 1 team at the time of the game. 

Another place that loves Alabama is Las Vegas. According to betting expert R.J. Bell of Pregame.com, the Crimson Tide would be given the edge against any other team in the country:

Even though the committee isn't supposed to be influenced by past results, it's hard not to take notice of what Saban has built with this program over the last seven years. 

Unlike last year's Iron Bowl, which turned into one of the most memorable games ever, everything is set up for Alabama to be in the Final Four. The game is played in Tuscaloosa against an Auburn defense that's allowed 35.8 points per game in its last five SEC contests. 

That's not a good trend when you are going up against the nation's most explosive wide receiver, as ESPN's College GameDay tweeted:

Unless Alabama starts beating itself, or the defense collapses for some unknown reason, it's hard to envision a scenario where it isn't playing in the College Football Playoff. Rivalry games are tricky, so don't dismiss Auburn completely in this spot. It just doesn't look good right now. 

No. 3 Florida State: Key Game vs. Florida (Nov. 29)

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

It's been a long time since an undefeated defending national champion has drawn as much skepticism as Florida State. It's certainly not unwarranted, as the Seminoles have been flirting with disaster all year dating back to the season opener against Oklahoma State. 

Somehow, Jameis Winston and Co. keep finding ways to win games, and that's all that matters. It may not be enough to push the team up to No. 1 in the eyes of the selection committee, but they won't fall out of the top four if things keep going this way. 

Matt Leinart, who led a USC team that was trying to repeat as BCS champions in 2005, made a great point about anyone trying to dismiss Florida State in a post on FoxSports.com:

"

I'd say the biggest difference between winning a first title and going for a second or third is the intense outside pressure from media and fans and the pressure you put on yourself to be perfect because that's the expectation that is set now. You can sneak up on a lot of people when you win your first title.

"

The Seminoles have been under a microscope all year and haven't blinked. It helps that the ACC lacks quality depth, but that's not something they can control. 

J.A. Adande of ESPN.com noted the dichotomy of this Florida State team in a pointed tweet during its comeback win against Miami:

There's going to come a time when these bad starts come back to bite Florida State. It may not come until the College Football Playoff because the schedule lacks quality. 

Let's look to the SEC for Florida State's last great test before figuring out if it will have a chance to repeat as champions. Florida has had its own difficulty this season, resulting in Will Muschamp stepping down as head coach after the Gators' final game.

Muschamp has a chance to go out with a bang, knocking off Florida State in the regular-season finale for both teams. The Gators have already pulled off one shocker this year, defeating Georgia by running for 418 yards in a 38-20 romp. 

This isn't a great stylistic matchup for the Seminoles. Florida's defense has been solid all year, allowing 22.9 points per game, and Florida State has given up at least 26 points in three of its last four games. 

Florida State should run through the next two games against Boston College and Florida. At least one of those games will be closer than you think, though the Seminoles will keep walking the tightrope of success. 

No. 4 Mississippi State: Key Game at No. 8 Mississippi (Nov. 29)

Butch Dill/Associated Press

The most fascinating game left on the schedule is the Egg Bowl between Mississippi State and Mississippi, though a lot depends on what Ole Miss does against Arkansas this week. If the Rebels take care of business on Saturday, it will give the Bulldogs one more chance to get a true marquee win. 

Looking over Mississippi State's schedule now, it doesn't look as good as it once did. At the time, the Bulldogs could boast about having three straight wins over Top 10 teams (LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn). Now, those three teams have combined to lose 11 games and only Auburn is in the Top 25. 

There's also a chance that Mississippi can still sneak back into the top four if it takes care of business against Arkansas and Mississippi State.

The Rebels are still ranked eighth; TCU and Baylor do not have a quality opponent remaining on the schedule, while Ohio State has a potentially difficult matchup with Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

However, if you look at a head-to-head win over Wisconsin or Mississippi State, which team would have the better argument to move into the No. 4 spot if things break that way?

The Bulldogs are in a tenuous spot, though it's not just because of their ranking. Dak Prescott's Heisman campaign collapsed against Alabama by getting picked off three times, including twice in the red zone, via SportsCenter:

The Alabama game was just the tip of the iceberg for Prescott, who has thrown eight of his 10 interceptions in the Bulldogs' last four SEC games. His next challenge, assuming Vanderbilt doesn't get him this week, comes against the nation's top-ranked scoring defense. 

Like Florida State, Mississippi State was living on the edge with close calls against Kentucky and Arkansas. Unlike the Seminoles, Dan Mullen's team found the banana peel on the biggest stage. 

One thing the Bulldogs have going for them in the Egg Bowl is Mississippi's loss against Auburn. The Tigers run a read-option offense that confused the Rebels en route to putting up 35 points and 502 yards. 

Mississippi State doesn't live by the read-option, though it is an element of the offense. Prescott is at his best when teams are forced to stop him from running, opening up huge passing lanes when he does decide to throw the ball. 

Given all the problems Prescott has had in recent weeks, look for Mississippi to pull off the slight upset to get back in the playoff conversation. 

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