Bowl Predictions 2014: Updated Playoff Projections and Odds on Brink of Week 13
If the rivalry games in Week 14 and the conference championships in Week 15 are the main courses on the way to the College Football Playoff, Week 13 is the appetizer that will feature tons of style points.
Fans may be subjected to too many style points considering every one of the undefeated or one-loss playoff contenders are at home against unranked and overmatched foes.
With that in mind, here is a look at the latest playoff projections and odds from StatMilk, as well as my own playoff projections. While I believe Florida State, Oregon and Alabama will all win out and clinch a spot, Baylor’s head-to-head victory over TCU will eventually come into play in the final College Football Playoff poll.
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StatMilk Playoff Projections
Scott Polacek Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Current Playoff Odds
(All odds via Oddsshark.com)
| Alabama | 13/5 |
| Oregon | 4/1 |
| Florida State | 5/1 |
| Ohio State | 6/1 |
| TCU | 7/1 |
| Baylor | 8/1 |
| Mississippi State | 8/1 |
Week 13 Playoff X-Factors
Every one of the playoff contenders should win easily in Week 13, but there are still some X-factors that are worth watching for college football fans.
The first one at noon ET will be Indiana running back Tevin Coleman’s opportunity to make a statement on the national stage against Ohio State’s defense. Coleman is second in the nation behind the football-playing robot that is Melvin Gordon with 1,678 rushing yards on the season. He also has 12 touchdowns and is the main reason why Indiana is 11th in the country in rushing yards per game.
One person who certainly knows about Coleman now after preparing for the game is Ohio State coach Urban Meyer, via Bill Landis of Cleveland.com: “The tailback is ridiculous. I didn't know that until I went and watched the tape with the defense. He's unbelievable."
The Buckeyes defense just allowed 145 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Minnesota’s David Cobb, so the precedent is there for elite Big Ten running backs to exploit Ohio State.
Even if Coleman goes off, it may not be enough to beat Ohio State. After all, the Buckeyes should have a talent advantage nearly everywhere else, although Coleman and his team did upset Missouri earlier in the year.
Superstar players should never be taken lightly, regardless of what team they are on.
Elsewhere, Florida State would be advised to not start so slowly against Boston College because the Eagles are built to bleed the clock with a strong running game. Florida State has trailed at the half in six of its last 11 games and had to come back from deficits of 15 points or more three times this year. But, Boston College is 12th in the nation in rushing yards per game.
Quarterback Tyler Murphy has 1,006 rushing yards, and running back Jon Hilliman has 620 and 11 touchdowns. Boston College beat USC with a head-turning 452 rushing yards and will try to pound the clock early and often against the Seminoles.
That strategy would work better if the Eagles had the lead.
In the evening, fans will be subjected to a revenge game for Baylor against Oklahoma State.
The Bears were in the stretch run of a magical 2013 season, which included a blowout win over Oklahoma, and were in the national title picture until they completely derailed at Oklahoma State. Baylor lost 49-17, which is sure to be a motivating factor on Saturday.
The Bears now have the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense, will be playing at home and understand that style points matter for playoff purposes. Baylor could roll the Cowboys, especially given this update from Kyle Fredrickson of The Oklahoman regarding Oklahoma State’s quarterback:
As long as the Bears don’t get too caught up in seeking revenge and end up pressing, this one should be over by halftime against an Oklahoma State squad that has lost four consecutive games.
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