San Francisco 49ers' Most Important Matchups Against Washington in Week 12
The San Francisco 49ers take on the Washington Redskins this Sunday in a game that they are heavily favored in. Odds Shark says that the 49ers opened at 7.5 point favorites, and that line has only shifted further and further toward the 49ers as the week has gone on.
There is little confidence in Washington’s ability to upset the 49ers, thanks to their frankly pitiful performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. That, coupled with San Francisco’s recent two-game win streak, means that the 49ers are comfortably favored.
That doesn’t mean this will be a walkover, however. Remember, Washington did manage to take down the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 8, though it took a Tony Romo injury to do so. Couple that with San Francisco’s losses to Chicago and St. Louis and you never know. While I believe this is the easiest game left on San Francisco’s schedule, that doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed win.
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If Washington is going to pull an upset, it is most likely to be due to San Francisco’s offense sputtering. Their defense has been on par with anyone else in the league, while the offense has been adequate at best.
With that in mind, let’s look at three key matchups between San Francisco’s offense and Washington’s defense that the 49ers will have to clamp down on to guarantee a win this Sunday in Levi’s Stadium.
RE Jason Hatcher vs. LG Mike Iupati
If there’s been one constant on Washington’s defense this season, it has been Jason Hatcher. Hatchers' six sacks, six quarterback hits and 23 quarterback hurries place him second on Washington in terms of raw quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), behind only Ryan Kerrigan. Despite Washington’s recent struggles, Hatcher has still been performing at a very solid level.
Hatcher ranks only behind Houston’s J.J. Watt in pass-rushing productivity among 3-4 defensive ends, according to PFF, which speaks to his efficiency at getting after the quarterback. He’s in the quarterback’s face once every 7.7 passing snaps, which can really disrupt a passing game.
Hatcher had a very solid game two weeks ago, hampering rookie Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He only brought Bridgewater down once, but he was in his face all day long. They may have lost the game 29-26, but it wasn’t Hatcher’s fault—that was the secondary blowing coverages.
The 32-year-old veteran may not be living up to his Pro Bowl status from last season in Dallas, but he’s been more than just solid. Coach Jay Gruden has made noise about Hatcher needing to dominate more, but Hatcher’s fighting through double-teams to make an impact—if there was more talent around him, that would be less of an issue.
The 49ers' offensive line has failed to hold up for most of the season. They’ve allowed 32 sacks, placing the 49ers in a tie for fourth-worst in the NFL, which is a sack more per game than the NFL average.
The 22 hurries allowed by left guard Iupati are tied for worst on the team and is the 10th-worst total in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He struggled last week against the New York Giants, with both Robert Ayers and Johnathan Hankins getting significant pressure on the inside.
Now, Iupati has recovered from his awful start to the season in terms of the run game, and he’s back to the grinding powerhouse we all know he can be, and he hasn’t allowed a sack since Week 5 against Kansas City. He backslid a little bit against the Giants and needs to shake it off and continue the run of solid performances he had leading up to the game.
A clean sheet from Iupati handling a potentially dangerous threat like Hatcher would go a long way toward ensuring a 49ers' victory in this one. The 49ers need, as a team, to do better at keeping Colin Kaepernick upright, and Iupati is right in the middle of that.
CB Bashaud Breeland vs. WR Anquan Boldin
Breeland is a rookie cornerback out of Clemson. As far as rookie cornerbacks go, he’s actually picked up his play quite well; he was actually someone I was looking at for the 49ers to draft way back at the beginning of last offseason. He needed to work on his technique some, but he’s fluid and quick-footed, so I thought he had some interesting potential.
Breeland’s had a bit of a rough season in Washington, where he was thrust into the starting lineup in Week 4 after DeAngelo Hall tore his Achilles. He definitely looked raw at the beginning, but starting around Week 7, something seemed to click.
From Week 7 onward, Breeland is PFF’s top-rated rookie cornerback (subscription required), allowing 19 receptions on 32 targets with an interception and five passes defensed. He’s actually in the top 10 of all cornerbacks since Week 7, so he’s definitely figured something out as the season has gone along.
He had a great day in Washington’s upset over Dallas. Tony Romo and company regularly targeted him, trying to pick on the rookie—no other Washington defender was targeted more often. Mark Bullock of The Washington Post broke down his game at the time, and you can see how he was able to shut down Dez Bryant, despite Bryant’s significant height advantage.
San Francisco fans can remember how their rookie corner, Jimmie Ward, was demolished by Brandon Marshall back in Week 2, and appreciate the level of difficulty Breeland was dealing with.
The 49ers don’t have a burner like Terrance Williams to challenge Breeland deep, so I predict we’ll see them test the rookie with their most savvy veteran, Anquan Boldin. Boldin’s been catching 68.3 percent of passes thrown his way this season, and that number’s deflated after a bizarre, four-drop day against New Orleans. Exclude that one outlier, and Boldin’s grabbing more than three-quarters of the passes aimed at him.
More impressive might be his performance on third downs. On third downs this season, Boldin has caught 17 of his 28 targets for 232 yards and two touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. All but one of those receptions resulted in a first down or touchdown, significantly more than anyone else on the team. He is Kaepernick’s safety blanket when things get rough on key downs.
Breeland’s been able to shut down a lot of players, but he hasn’t come across anyone quite as savvy as Boldin. I expect the veteran to take Breeland to school and have a big day.
OLB Trent Murphy vs. LT Joe Staley
Trent Murphy entered Washington’s starting lineup only three games ago, in the upset over Dallas. Their second-round pick—and first pick of the 2014 draft—Murphy is replacing Brian Orakpo, who tore his pectoral muscle earlier this season.
Now, Murphy himself is fighting through an injury, with a partial tear of his PCL. He’s going to give it a go against San Francisco, so he’ll be faced with trying to outdo star left tackle Joe Staley.
In the last three games, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Murphy has put together two sacks, a quarterback hit and eight quarterback hurries. Since Week 8, Murphy’s been one of the top 20 3-4 OLBs in terms of pass-rushing productivity, per PFF, mostly crashing in from the right side of the defense.
I will note that when he played against the Dallas Cowboys, he was a little bit stymied by Pro Bowl tackle Tyron Smith. That bodes well for Staley’s day against the rookie—Murphy’s not an otherworldly rookie like J.J. Watt was; he’s just been playing solid for someone with little NFL experience.
I fully expect Staley to handle him without too many difficulties—but when you’re looking for matchups Washington could possibly exploit, “a rookie taking a big leap forward” is about as good as you’re going to get. Washington’s just not a good football team.
I think that about sums it up on the bottom line. Washington simply isn’t as good at playing football as San Francisco is. The Redskins are likely to be missing their best player, offensive tackle Trent Williams, just as the 49ers get Aldon Smith back.
Their starting quarterback hasn’t lived up to expectations, their running backs can’t get anything going on the ground and they’re prone to giving up big days through the air. There’s just not enough talent here to really expect any sort of upset to happen.
It’s not impossible, and stranger things have happened—even this season. But all the signs and indicators point to this one being a fairly easy win for San Francisco.
Prediction: San Francisco 34, Washington 10
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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