Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

San Francisco has fallen off the NFL radar and would not make the playoffs if the postseason started today, but the 49ers are actually 5-2 both straight up and against the spread over their last seven games. The 6-4 'Niners will try to keep pace in the NFC playoff race when they host the 3-7 Washington Redskins Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: 49ers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.0-16.9 49ers

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

The Redskins laid an egg in a home loss to the Buccaneers last week, and they are just 3-7 both SU and ATS on the season.

However, they've actually had some chances at wins and covers. Back in Week 5, as seven-point home dogs against Seattle, the 'Skins had that spread pushed until the Seahawks kicked a field goal with 20 seconds to go.

Then Washington had a five-point spread covered at Arizona until giving up an interception return for a score with 20 seconds left.

The Redskins then won two games in a row, beating Tennessee and upsetting the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington. And three weeks ago they led the Vikings in Minneapolis until allowing a touchdown with three minutes left.

Maybe the 'Skins don't stink quite as much as many believe.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The 49ers didn't look too good in losing back-to-back games to Denver and St. Louis a few weeks ago, but since then they've beaten the Saints at the Superdome in overtime and, last week, the Giants in New Jersey 16-10. And winning helps cover up turmoil behind the scenes. San Francisco outrushed New York last week 148-65, held the ball for 35 minutes and picked off Giants quarterback Eli Manning five times.

San Francisco ranks seventh in the league in rushing, and sixth against the run, outrushing opponents by 36 yards per game. Finally, the 'Niners just beat the Redskins last November 27-6, covering as six-point road favorites.

Smart Pick

San Francisco is chasing a playoff spot, while Washington appears in disarray. But the 49ers are only 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites at home, suggesting they might be overrated in that spot. They also might be ripe for a letdown, after consecutive road victories.

Meanwhile, the Redskins have actually outgained and outrushed opponents, on average, this season. If Washington can just limit the turnovers, it could keep this one close. So the smart money here resides with the 'Skins, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• Washington is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing San Francisco
• San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last six games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.