Iman Shumpert's Free Agency Will Be Very Expensive Decision for New York Knicks
Iman Shumpert's future, regardless of what it holds and where it takes him, is already proving costly for the battle-busted New York Knicks.
Part of his future has already been decided upon. The Knicks elected not to extend their fourth-year shooting guard by the Halloween deadline, so assuming they pick up his qualifying offer (likely), he will enter restricted free agency, pinning the relationship between player and team to a crossroads.
Power will still lie with the Knicks at that point. Restricted free agency is an extension of incumbent teams' desires. They have the right to match any offer their players receive, whittling decisions down to one elementary—though exacting—question: Do we want to keep this guy?
Providing an answer, no matter what it is, will be expensive for the Knicks, the transitioning team that must now start weighing the price of retaining Shumpert against letting him go.
Letting Him Go
A complete absence of extension talks was—and remains—ominous.
The Knicks have grand free-agency plans over the next two summers, during which time they're expected to enjoy the fruits of financial flexibility. It's these stately ambitions—specifically the pursuit of superstars—that Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com believes will compel the Knicks to part ways with Shumpert.
"The Knicks are unlikely to match any significant contract offers for Shumpert this summer. They want to preserve cap space for the summer of 2015 and 2016, when they hope to land a free agent to pair alongside Carmelo Anthony. ... The guess here is that they'd rather keep their options open than commit money to Shumpert.
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Placing more stock in salary-cap plasticity than Shumpert leaves the Knicks with three options: They can ride this season out and allow him to sign elsewhere without matching over the summer, they can shop him ahead of the February trade deadline, or they can roll the dice and try to orchestrate a sign-and-trade once free agency begins.
Letting Shumpert walk for nothing is the most painful and least likely route. Not only are his numbers up across the board, but he's one of the few defensive presences they employ.
Last year, the Knicks ranked 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions. But they were markedly better with Shumpert on the floor, allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions, the equivalent of a top-seven defense, according to NBA.com (subscription required):
Although Shumpert is failing to have a similar impact this season, that's more indicative of the Knicks' collective defensive regression than anything else. They rank 27th in efficiency and don't have the personnel to promise improvement.
That the Knicks are relinquishing fewer points with him off the floor this season, per NBA.com, means little when looking at the big picture. The defensive talent around him is worse, the team is being burned by failed closeouts on three-pointers, and he himself is fouling with career-high frequency in a frenetic effort to prevent dribble penetration.
"If I stop reaching, I’ll be just fine," he said of his fouling fiesta this season, per the New York Post's Marc Berman. "Some of the time, those guys are pros, they’re going to get to the basket, and I got to bite my lip and trust my bigs to make plays at the rim.’’
Shumpert has actually done his job on an individual level (for the most part). Opposing shooting guards and small forwards are averaging a combined player efficiency rating of 12.5 against him, well below the league average of 15, according to 82games.com.
More importantly, though, he's done a magnificent job covering up for most of his perimeter brethren. Just look at the defensive rating of the Knicks' most prominent guards and wings with and without Shumpert on the floor (Remember: The lower the number, the better the defensive rating):
With the exception of J.R. Smith, everyone is either better or basically even when playing alongside Shumpert. Permitting him to walk away for nothing in restricted free agency, then, would be foolish.
Especially after having so many opportunities to trade him.
Just last season, the Knicks were fielding multiple offers for his services. The Oklahoma City Thunder were interested in acquiring him, per Begley. So, too, were the Los Angeles Clippers, who dangled Darren Collison in talks, according Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Neither of those teams slung world-beating packages, but they could have given the Knicks something. Anything.
At the same time, the Knicks can ill afford to ship out Shumpert for just anything.
Moving him ahead of the trade deadline this year wouldn't be difficult. That ship hasn't capsized. Getting something valuable in return would be the problem.
Rival general managers will be leery of unloading significant assets in exchange for a flight risk. While Shumpert's next team would maintain the ability to match any offer sheet he signs, said team would basically be paying the Knicks for the right to pay Shumpert.
In the event that eager beaver exists, what can the Knicks expect to receive in return? A draft pick? A player making rookie-scale money?
Dealing Shumpert wouldn't land them much of anyone. He's earning just under $3.7 million this season, making it difficult, nigh impossible, for the Knicks to receive adequate value while adhering to league-imposed financial constraints.
Other pieces could be added to sweeten the pot and increase the Knicks' contract-consuming capacity. But they don't have the necessary pot-sweeteners, and taking back massive salaries would curb free-agent spending power, thereby undermining their primary motives.
Waiting to explore a sign-and-trade over the offseason promises nothing either. Shumpert's new salary would allow the Knicks to broker a sizable return, but only if he doesn't sign an offer sheet first. Putting pen to paper on another contract bilks the Knicks of their ability to deal him; they would only be able to match his contract.
All of which makes the latter course of action unlikely. The Knicks—who will be pursuing big-name free agents like Marc Gasol, per the New York Daily News' Frank Isola—won't be able to make any cash-heavy decisions until their other interests play out. Expecting Shumpert to wait around until it's more convenient for the team that wouldn't actually pay him is risky.
Any way the Knicks lose Shumpert, then, would be expensive. They either watch him walk away for nothing or receive marginal returns that won't come close to matching his internal value.
Retaining Him
If parting with Shumpert is guaranteed to be painful, the solution is simple.
Keep him.
Oh, wait. That's not a simple solution at all.
Re-signing Shumpert will cost money. Lots and lots of money. Dollars and cents New York could be throwing at free agents such as Gasol, Goran Dragic and Paul Millsap, among others.
Price means everything if the Knicks are, in fact, hell-bent on chasing and caging superstars. Shumpert won't dwell among the bargain-bin prospects if he remains healthy. Not with the salary cap expected to explode by 2016.
Not with the way he's playing now.
As Keith Schlosser wrote for The Knicks Blog,
"The proof is in the pudding. Shumpert is off to the hottest start of his career, and as multiple Knicks struggle with the triangle, he’s quickly emerging as the team’s most consistent performer. Doing everything New York has desired from him since day one, that explosiveness towards the basket has returned, and Shumpert has proven to be a more versatile player offensively by spreading the floor.
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In addition to being the Knicks' lone source of defensive energy on the perimeter, Shumpert's offensive game has come full circle. He's averaging 13.2 points and 3.6 assists a night on 52.3 percent shooting, including a blistering 52.9 percent clip from downtown—all of which would be career highs.
His value as a spot-up shooter has increased tenfold as well. He's draining 59.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities overall and is even better from downtown, where he's finding nylon 63 percent of the time. New York is also running the equivalent of a top-seven offense with him on the floor, per NBA.com.
Relative to how other shooting guards are performing, Shumpert is headed for a massive payday.
Consider the following:
| Player X | 14.6 | 42.7 | 40.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 |
| Player Y | 17.3 | 52.3 | 52.9 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 20.0 |
| Player Z | 17.6 | 47.2 | 33.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 12.0 |
Player Y is having the best season by far, and his identity should be no secret thanks to those shooting percentages. It's Shumpert.
Player Z is Avery Bradley, someone similar to Shumpert in skill set. He's valued for his defense, viewed as a shooter and signed a four-year contract worth $32 million over the summer. Shumpert should net even more if his current numbers hold.
Player X, meanwhile, is Alec Burks. He is not considered a strong defender, merely a scorer. The Utah Jazz handed him a four-year extension worth $42 million, the first year of which (2015-16) will pay him more than $9.2 million, per Spotrac.com. Shumpert—again, assuming health and performance—could command even more.
Barring an epic breakout between now and season's end, he won't receive Klay Thompson money ($70 million-ish). But he is someone playing a shallow position who could see his average annual salary rocket into eight-figure range.
Paying Shumpert that kind of money would be financially debilitating for the Knicks. Both Smith (player option) and Tim Hardaway Jr. are expected back next year, and they'll combine to make around $7.7 million. Though all three of Hardaway, Smith and Shumpert can play the 2 or 3, retaining the latter means the Knicks could commit $20-plus million to the shooting guard position next season. That wouldn't preclude them from being free-agency players in 2016, but it firmly fractures their ability to reel in Gasol-level talent this July.
Signing Shumpert without moving, say, Smith forces the Knicks to funnel tens of millions of dollars into a perimeter core that, while promising, isn't generating wins. Offseason decisions don't generally get more expensive than paying top dollar for mid- to low-end production.
What to Do, What to Do
There is no easy answer here, nor is there an answer at all.
Clarity should be found as the season wears on and the Knicks' triangle offense and misshapen defense level off. Between now and next summer—or the trade deadline—anything can happen. The Knicks could trade Shumpert; they could trade Smith. They could pony up the requisite cash for Shumpert; they could let him walk.
They could even try to pull off what the Houston Rockets could not: attempt to sign their Chris Bosh (say, Gasol) before exceeding the salary cap to retain their Chandler Parsons (Shumpert).
It's too early to tell.
Whatever the Knicks decide, though, it's bound to be expensive—costing them some combination of money, immediate free-agency grandeur and, most dauntingly, piece of mind.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com. Salary information via ShamSports unless otherwise cited.
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