Benching Carlos Boozer for Ed Davis Is the Only Choice for Los Angeles Lakers
Change can be a scary thing in the NBA.
Substituting Carlos Boozer for Ed Davis in the Los Angeles Lakers' starting lineup is not one of those changes.
Immediately after the boys in purple and gold fell to the Golden State Warriors 136-115 on Sunday night, dropping to 1-9 on the season for the first time in franchise history, head coach Byron Scott had some biting comments for his plunging team.
“You either want to do it, can’t do it or won’t do it,” he said of the Lakers defense, per the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina. “I got to assume that when I see guys jogging, that you’re tired. If I assume that, I have to make changes.”
Inserting the 25-year-old Davis is the only notable change Scott can make. More importantly, it's one he should make. The Lakers are swiftly spiraling out of control, and they're in desperate need of something, anything, to help them escape a season-ruining rut.
Out of Options
Where else is Scott supposed to look at the moment?
Steve Nash isn't around for him to bench Jeremy Lin. A.J. Price would have to quarterback the offense as a starter instead, which isn't going to solve anything. Lin is also part of the solution, as the lone Lakers player who is both attempting at least one three-pointer per game and connecting on more than 33.3 percent of those looks.
Jordan Hill could stop jumping center to start—if the Lakers suddenly develop an aversion to rebounding. He has been their best glass-crasher to date (9.6 rebounds per game), ranks as one of their four best passers (2.1 assists), is their lone double-double threat and continues to play the best basketball of his career.
Translation: not going to happen.
Also not going to happen: a revocation of Kobe Bryant's starting privileges.
Jokes are made daily—and rightfully so. Though Bryant is pumping in 27.3 points per game—the most of any player aged 36 or older in NBA history—he's on pace to have the lowest field-goal percentage (37.7) of anyone who has ever recorded at least 27 points a night.
But for all his points-seeking and ball-monopolizing—he's also on track to have the highest usage rate (38.9) in league history—Bryant is a lineup mainstay. Never mind that the Lakers offense is statistically better with him off the floor, according to NBA.com (subscription required). He's not going anywhere.
Pinning Wesley Johnson to the bench is the only other option. And good luck there. The Lakers are presently posting the worst defensive rating in NBA history, and Johnson ranks as their best perimeter defender for sheer lateral quickness alone. Removing him from an otherwise porous starting five is not an option.
That leaves Boozer, the former All-Star who should now cede his status to an up-and-coming Davis.
Better Than Boozer
Although Boozer was touted as a reasonable acquisition upon arriving, he's served his purpose as a starter. The Lakers clearly aren't competing for a surprise playoff spot this year, so he's better suited as a role player who comes off the bench and doesn't bilk young guns like Davis of valuable playing time.
Even if he were playing well, this is a move that makes sense. It's not like the Lakers are winning. Davis could actually be part of their future; the soon-to-be 33-year-old Boozer probably won't be around next year.
Boozer's poor play only makes this an easier decision. His offensive and rebounding outputs aren't what they were in 2009—or even in 2013—and he remains a defensive detriment on a squad teeming with disinterested defenders.
Don't take my word as gospel, though. Look at the production disparity between Boozer and Davis per 36 minutes for yourselves:
| Boozer | 47.8 | 16.8 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 103 | 118 | 14.4 |
| Davis | 65.1 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 123 | 113 | 20.3 |
Prorated numbers typically favor those who play in short bursts, and Davis is logging fewer minutes (23.6) than Boozer (27.7). But the difference (4.1 minutes) is negligible. Davis is averaging nine times as many win shares per 48 minutes (0.126) as Boozer (0.014). That's a difference worth noting given the minor gap in playing time.
Consider, too, what ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne wrote on this situation:
"He reminds me of Jordan Hill last season: really good as an energizer off the bench and you always shook your head and thought, 'If he's this good in 20 minutes, what could he do in 35 minutes?' Well, Hill is showing what he can do as a starter this season and I think Davis would have the same impact if he moved into that role. I know that means Boozer would go to the bench, but at this point, the Lakers need to try things -- anything they can -- to create some sparks.
"
If nothing else, Davis has earned more playing time than Boozer. His numbers are better, his legs are younger, and his energy is something the Lakers desperately need in volume.
Most importantly, and unlike Boozer, he can also help this team.
Better for the Lakers
Savior isn't a word we'll throw around here. Short of brokering a blockbuster trade that lands them LeBron James and the 1999-2000 league MVP version of Shaquille O'Neal, the Lakers cannot be saved.
They can, however, be helped—and perhaps saved from themselves a little bit.
We begin on the offensive end. The Lakers haven't been great—or even good—on offense, but it remains the lesser of two evils.
When Davis is in the game, the Lakers are scoring 109.6 points per 100 possessions, the equivalent of the Association's third-best offense, per NBA.com. When he's on the bench, they're tallying a 98.1 offensive rating, which would rank 29th among all teams, pinning them to Philadelphia 76ers territory.
(For the curious Carls out there: Los Angeles runs a bottom-eight offense with Boozer in the game, compared to a top-six attack without him, according to NBA.com.)
Davis admittedly doesn't have the offensive range of Boozer, but that's not a deterrent. It's a boon for this argument.
More than 98 percent of Davis' shot attempts (62) have come in the paint or restricted area. Boozer, meanwhile, tends to fall in love with mid-range jumpers. Just over 34 percent of his attempts (39) have come from mid-range, where he's shooting 35.9 percent.
If you're not going to shoot three-pointers, the next best shots come within the paint and restricted area. Davis follows that trend way more than Boozer, mostly because he's more reliant on others to create his scoring opportunities—which, when playing alongside the ball-bearing Bryant, is a great thing.
Speaking of which...Bryant is worlds better when playing alongside Davis. Both his offensive and defensive ratings improve with him in the game, as do his field-goal percentages, according to NBA.com:
For whatever reason, Bryant is more effective beside Davis. They don't occupy the same space, and Davis isn't someone who commands touches like Boozer. He plays around and above the rim and cleans up misses, which complements Bryant's isolation-heavy perimeter style nicely.
Oh, and let's not forget about the Lakers defense. That historically bad, buckets-allowing defense. Davis helps them there, too.
The Lakers are even worse defensively when he's not in the game. They're relinquishing 118.9 points per 100 possessions in those situations, according to NBA.com. That number improves to 110.3 when he takes the floor. While that's still bad, it's the equivalent of a 27th-ranked defense, or better than what the Lakers have now.
"Whether it’s taking over for Carlos Boozer at power forward or Jordan Hill at center, Davis’ play demands more minutes," Ethan Norof wrote for RotoWorld.com. "It’s especially evident when you examine how bad the Lakers’ defense is, and it’s slapping you right in the face like a dog fart when you watch this team play."
Rim protection is Davis' bread and butter—and meat and potatoes and dessert—here. Opponents are shooting 56.1 percent when he's around the basket. The Lakers, by comparison, are allowing players to shoot 60.7 percent at the rim, the worst mark in the league.
No one person is going to remedy the Lakers' growing list of defensive issues. But Davis is someone who, unlike most of his teammates, can help them avoid historically horrific execution.
The Easiest of Decisions
Some decisions are difficult to make.
This isn't one of them. The Lakers need change, and Davis needs to start. It's that simple and can only be complicated by rejection of reality.
"Patience is running thin," Scott said, per ESPNLosAngeles.com's Baxter Holmes.
So, too, is hope. And goodwill.
Investing in Davis now can help the Lakers salvage what little is left of both.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of Nov. 18, 2014.
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