Kansas State Wildcats vs. West Virginia Mountaineers: Analysis and Pick

The Kansas State Wildcats and the West Virginia Mountaineers are both coming off bye weeks following rough road losses and will meet in Morgantown Thursday night in a key Big 12 matchup. The Wildcats are hoping to rebound from a 41-20 loss at TCU as 6.5-point road underdogs while the Mountaineers are looking to bounce back after falling 33-16 at Texas as three-point favorites.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.6-28.3 Wildcats

Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread

Despite losing to the Horned Frogs away from home before the bye, Kansas State has been outstanding on the road with a 13-2 mark against the spread (ATS) in its last 15 games as a road underdog. The Wildcats are also 18-6 ATS in their past 24 road games and 17-5-1 vs. the line in their previous 22 games as visitors against conference opponents.

In addition, they beat West Virginia 35-12 at home last year and crushed the Mountaineers 55-14 in their last visit there two years ago, covering the spread in both games with the under going 2-0. In last season’s meeting, Kansas State wide receiver Tyler Lockett was the star, hauling in eight catches for 111 yards and three touchdowns.

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

While West Virginia has lost two games in a row, the team had covered three straight, including a huge 41-27 home victory against Baylor as an eight-point underdog a little more than a month ago. The Mountaineers have proven they can throw the ball effectively against good teams, and that win over the Bears is the perfect example.

They also nearly beat TCU at home November 1 but came up just short in a 31-30 loss. West Virginia quarterback Cole Trickett is coming off his two worst performances of the season in consecutive games with just one touchdown and three interceptions during that stretch. Trickett came up big against Baylor with 322 yards and three touchdowns, and he will want to go out with a bang in his final home game at Mountaineer Field.

Smart Pick

The Mountaineers have outperformed preseason expectations this season yet have still not played well at home against Big 12 foes, dropping five of their last seven games there under that scenario both straight up (SU) and ATS.

The Wildcats are the kind of team that gives West Virginia fits, led by head coach Bill Snyder, who has developed the perfect game plan to win the last two meetings. Snyder’s team was simply overmatched by the Horned Frogs but will not face that same situation against the Mountaineers.

Opponents have seemingly figured out Trickett, and Snyder should be able to hold him in check as well. Kansas State’s strong road trends ATS are just too hard to ignore in this spot. Look for the Wildcats to pull off the upset as a small road dog again.

Betting Trends

• Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
• West Virginia is 4-2 ATS in its last six games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.