Ted's Takes: How USC Can Save Its Season, What Happened to Stanford?

For the third time in the last four years, the USC-UCLA game will have Pac-12 title meaning. The winner can’t clinch the South, but it does become the favorite. And a bigger prize looms—a chance to barge its way into the national championship picture.

UCLA’s path is simple—win two home games against USC and Stanford, and claim the South championship.

USC needs help because of the now-famous “Hail Mary” pass from Arizona State’s Mike Bercovici to Jaelen Strong on October 4. The result: USC must win Saturday and needs Arizona to beat ASU on November 28.

Now, USC needs no sympathy, nor will it receive any from foes. So, we offer these facts simply as context. Here is the number of USC scholarship players who dressed and played the last three games:

Game	Dressed	Played
At Utah	58	48
At Washington State	57	48
Vs. Calfornia	57	54

The Trojans have played this season with brilliant individuals, but without numbers. They are with Leonard Williams, Nelson Agholor, Adoree' Jackson and JuJu Smith—players who are the envy of every conference school.

But their game-day sideline is also filled with walk-ons. Their stories are often heartwarming and usually associated with other schools. USC football is not about walk-ons.

So, a Pac-12 South championship would represent validation for Steve Sarkisian’s first season. The year has been uneven. Games have been lost to the inability to adequately defend a “Hail Mary” and a lack of rule awareness (a backward pass was not possessed by a Trojan and returned by Utah for a gift touchdown in a game decided by three points.)

How can the Trojans beat their rivals? How can they earn a shot at Oregon on the Pac-12’s biggest stage?

Many of the indicators are even:

Stat	USC	UCLA
Explosive Plays (20+)	47	42
Explosive Plays Allowed	34	36
20+ Yard Receptions	Nelson Agholor, 11	Jordan Payton, 10
20+ Yard Rushes	Buck Allen, 7	Paul Perkins, 6
Run/Pass Play Percentage	51.6/48.4	52.7/47.3
QB Rating vs. Blitz	Cody Kessler, 154.4	Brett Hundley, 157.5
Points Allowed off Giveaways	28	59
20+ Yard Completions	Cody Kessler, 35	Brett Hundley, 26

The highlighted two at the bottom are areas that I believe could swing the game.  

The largest stat difference is the turnover impact. In turnover margin, it is USC plus-9, UCLA even. But the Bruins have had 12 giveaways cost them 59 points.

Now factor in the completions and the Trojans’ ability to take deep shots with Kessler to Agholor and Smith, and that may present the USC path to victory.

Can Jeff Ulbrich coordinate a defensive plan that slows USC’s big plays and lessens the damage from turnovers by the Bruins offense?

On that last question might hinge the Bruins’ last chance to resurrect their summer hopes of playing for a national prize.

Stanford Struggles 

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

While five teams are still alive in the South, Oregon already knows it will play for the conference title. The Ducks have handled their business and been helped by a surprisingly weak season for Stanford.

Why is Stanford at 5-5, needing a road victory at Cal or UCLA for bowl eligibility?

One hidden number: two.

That is the number of takeaways by the Stanford defense in 10 games.

We talk about a Cardinal defense that leads the conference in most categories, including the most important one—allowing just 16.5 points per game (almost seven points ahead of second-place USC.)

Yet, this Stanford team has needed its defense to make game-changing plays. It begged for spectacular defense from a unit that has been rock-solid.

Why? Stanford’s offense has crashed in recent weeks. It heads toward a rare feat: last in points scored, first in points allowed. Stanford has been poor in the red zone, unable to settle on a lead running back and inconsistent in its ability to find Ty Montgomery game-breaking plays.

The result? Kevin Hogan has had to morph from game-manager to game-winner. The offensive line, populated by standout tackles Andrus Peat and Kyle Murphy, has not dominated on a consistent basis. And the Cardinal string of excellent tight ends (Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz, Levine Toilolo) has stalled.

Stanford’s immediate challenge is to find the sixth win. But David Shaw faces a vital postseason decision. Hogan has another year of eligibility. Does Stanford want him back? Can Hogan gain his degree by spring, affording him the option of playing for another school as a graduate student? Does Shaw feel redshirt Keller Chryst is ready to start in 2015?

Those answers will be the first step to shaping next year’s Pac-12 North.

Injured Ducks 

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Oregon’s view is toward December 5, the date of the Pac-12 title game, although Oregon State conveniently provided Mark Helfrich a mass dose of awareness with its upset of Arizona State.

The Ducks have Colorado in Eugene this Saturday, a game that should provide no threat to Oregon. The final game of the season is against the rival Beavers, which the Ducks must not overlook. 

Health is paramount to the Ducks after losing tight end Pharaoh Brown and center Hroniss Grasu to injury in Utah.

Two players, according to The Oregonian, are preparing to take Grasu’s place on Saturday.

Redshirt Doug Brenner filled in during the fourth quarter in Utah, while senior guard Hamani Stevens could also play there.

Returning Saturday is junior tackle Andre Yruretagoyena after missing eight games. Coupled with the season-long absence of Tyler Johnstone, Oregon has shined in mixing together a proficient offensive line.

The Ducks will need to continue doing just that if they're to win the inaugural playoff.