College Football Playoff 2014: Top 25 Predictions After Week 13 AP Rankings
The Associated Press and College Football Playoff polls have been at odds since the latter's initial release. So it should be no surprise that it's expected the nation's top four teams are in a far different order when the committee releases its next Top 25 on Tuesday.
With Alabama finally earning the signature win needed to leap and Florida State again looking less than stellar in keeping its high-pressure, undefeated brand of football going, odds are the committee will see things far different from traditional logic. The Seminoles, who dropped to No. 3 despite being undefeated in the last release, are in danger of falling to that precarious fourth spot. Meanwhile, one-loss outfits like Oregon and Alabama are undoubtedly secure if they win out.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Based on a combination of the AP poll and the committee's previous outlook, here's a projection for how the Week 13 Top 25 will play out:
| 1 | Oregon |
| 2 | Alabama |
| 3 | Mississippi State |
| 4 | Florida State |
| 5 | TCU |
| 6 | Baylor |
| 7 | Ohio State |
| 8 | Ole Miss |
| 9 | Georgia |
| 10 | UCLA |
| 11 | Michigan State |
| 12 | Kansas State |
| 13 | Arizona State |
| 14 | Arizona |
| 15 | Wisconsin |
| 16 | Georgia Tech |
| 17 | Auburn |
| 18 | Missouri |
| 19 | Utah |
| 20 | Nebraska |
| 21 | Marshall |
| 22 | Oklahoma |
| 23 | USC |
| 24 | Notre Dame |
| 25 | Duke |
First, a disclaimer: These are predictions for how the committee will vote, not my personal rankings. Despite its weekly need to scare people half to death, Florida State would not be No. 4 on my list; it'd be No. 1. But based on how Saturday played out and the committee's increasing wariness of the Seminoles, it's hard to think it'll slot them above either SEC team or Oregon.
The Ducks, who were idle this week, ascended to the No. 2 ranking after their 51-27 win over Utah. They close the season with what should be two relative gimmes against Colorado and Oregon State, but Arizona State learned the hard way that it's never easy to take a trip to Corvallis. Plus, last season's trip to Arizona proved the Ducks aren't above semi-confounding losses.
Avoiding such frustrations has come to define Florida State's season because it's about the only thing these Seminoles do consistently well. Jameis Winston led his third comeback from 15-plus points down Saturday, as Dalvin Cook's 26-yard touchdown run gave Florida State a 30-26 win over Miami. Winston threw for 302 yards, and Cook made the most of his seven carries, gaining 92 yards and scoring twice.
Where Florida State's resume starts breaking down is strength of schedule. The Seminoles have defeated zero teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25. As noted by ESPN's Jake Trotter, that gives them exactly the same number of Top 25 wins as Marshall—a team the committee is yet to deem worthy of existence:
Of course, Mississippi State's resume isn't entirely perfect, either. The Bulldogs' wins over LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn look a whole lot less impressive now than they did a month ago. Only three-loss Auburn remains ranked after this week's loss to Georgia.
Alabama's lone Top 25 win came this week against Mississippi State. Working from a purely logical perspective, it's easy to see how Oregon (three Top 25 wins) has emerged as the nation's best team. TCU's resume may also boast two top-tier wins if Oklahoma is back in the good graces of the Top 25 as expected.
The order of this week's Top 25 is of particular importance because it may structure the season-ending title picture. None of the seven remaining power-five conference teams with one or zero losses plays against its fellow elite teams the remainder of the season.
Florida State's best remaining game will come in the ACC Championship Game, very likely against Georgia Tech. Alabama is looking at two more tough SEC games before a potential playoff run though it may luck out and get Missouri instead of Georgia in a potential SEC Championship Game. Mississippi State's visit to rival Ole Miss sets up a potentially advantageous situation where it gets into the CFP despite failing to reach the conference championship game.
Ohio State, Baylor and TCU need help. The relative weaknesses of the Big Ten and Big 12 have haunted all three teams though the Horned Frogs were No. 4 last week and still have a chance at being a Top Four team this week.
"This was not going to get any style points," TCU coach Gary Patterson told Trotter after his team's 34-30 win over Kansas. "I know it'll probably hurt us. But the biggest thing is we got to 9-1. We found a way to win on the road, with some bounces that didn't go our way. A lot of teams would have lost this game."
Eliminating any one-loss SEC team, especially from the SEC West, is ridiculous as a general rule. Alabama and Mississippi State still have games against ranked opponents remaining, and the separation between those two teams is minuscule. Without a few costly turnovers, it's possible the Bulldogs would have cemented their top-dog status with a triumph in Tuscaloosa.
Florida State is the top dog in the AP poll this week largely because there are few other options. Being undefeated in a power-five conference means something even if it's the weakest of the quintuple. It'd be nearly impossible for the committee to justify leaving the Seminoles out when they sit atop the two other major polls.
That leaves one remaining spot to split between the four others, which seems rather unfortunate for the aforementioned trio given the committee believes Oregon is the best one-loss team in the country. Conference championships are said to carry weight within the room, though, so that may be the best bet for unseating one of the SEC teams.
Either way, the College Football Playoff has turned into a battle of attrition. And it's one that will have an awful lot of unhappy parties if none of these elite one-loss teams fall by the wayside.
Oh, and then there's Marshall. [Shrugs]
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
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