Bowl Projections 2014: Latest Playoff Predictions Heading into Critical Week 13
Week 12 was a tale of what could have been in the playoff picture, as Florida State and TCU both narrowly avoided crippling upsets with their postseason hopes on the line.
Style points may be important, but the most imperative thing about November football is avoiding the chaos and coming away with victories. Unfortunately for Mississippi State and Arizona State, they did not claim victory in Week 12 during trips to Alabama and Oregon State, respectively.
The Crimson Tide have recovered from an early loss to Ole Miss and may just be the team to beat the rest of the way in the College Football Playoff race. Nick Saban has his squad hitting its stride at just the right time, which is a dangerous proposition for the rest of the country.
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So what did wins by Alabama, Florida State, TCU and Ohio State and losses from Arizona State and Mississippi State do to the playoff picture? Read on to find out.
Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Breakdown
Alabama beat LSU earlier in the season, but the Tigers are just not as good in 2014 as fans are accustomed to seeing. Saturday’s performance against Mississippi State represented the marquee win that was missing from the Crimson Tide’s resume up to this point, and now there is absolutely zero doubt that they will make the playoff field if they win out.
The Iron Bowl is at home this season against a team that just got its doors blown off by Georgia. After that, Alabama will play the SEC East winner in the conference title game. That will be the Missouri Tigers if they can win their last two games. Remember, that is the same Missouri team that lost to Big Ten bottom-feeder Indiana.
The bottom line is nothing is standing in Alabama’s way on the road to the playoffs.
Elsewhere, projected No. 2 seed Florida State is the cardiac kid of the 2014 playoff race. ESPN Stats & Info noted that it is making quite the habit of falling behind early and coming away with second-half comebacks:
The Seminoles did it again on Saturday against Miami with a 30-26 victory. That marks close calls against Clemson, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Louisville and Miami now, but the most important thing is that they continue to win as the defending champs.
Wide receiver Rashad Greene discussed the close wins, according to The Associated Press (via ESPN.com): "That's how we're built. At the end of the day, we don't panic, we don't point fingers, we don't blame anyone. We make it possible."
With only Boston College, Florida and an ACC title game against a less-talented opponent standing in the way, the Seminoles should cruise to a playoff spot.
Oregon had a bye in Week 12, but it controls its own destiny to the playoffs, which is all you can ask for at this point of the season.
The Ducks should destroy an overmatched Colorado team in Week 13 before a rivalry clash with Oregon State. While the cliche sayings like “throw the records out when these two teams play” will be out in full force, Oregon should win that one as well with Heisman Trophy candidate Marcus Mariota going up against a vulnerable Beavers secondary.
A win in the Pac-12 title game for one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses (46 points a game) would clinch a playoff spot for the Ducks and give them a golden opportunity to win the first national title in program history.
That fourth spot is the intriguing one up for grabs, as Ohio State, TCU, Baylor and Mississippi State all have their eyes on it.
The Bulldogs hung with Alabama on Saturday, but the lack of even a division crown, let alone a conference title, will hurt them in the final poll. The selection committee will ultimately put increased emphasis on a conference championship. Of course, Mississippi State will have its hands full with Ole Miss in the final regular-season game, so it may be a moot point.
The Buckeyes look like a team that nobody would want to play at the end of the season, but that loss to Virginia Tech will ultimately be their undoing. It may not be entirely fair considering they lost superstar Braxton Miller to injury and had to throw a freshman quarterback into the fire right away, but that is the worst loss of all the playoff contenders.
That leaves TCU and Baylor fighting for the final spot. While the Horned Frogs—who barely escaped a terrible Kansas team in Week 12—have been ahead of the Bears in the College Football Playoff rankings, Baylor’s head-to-head win over TCU from earlier in the season will take final precedent at the end of the year.
What’s more, TCU’s win over Minnesota will lose some luster if and when the Golden Gophers drop their final three games of the season (already lost to Ohio State and have Nebraska and Wisconsin waiting).
As long as the Bears and their nearly unstoppable offense take care of business at home against Texas Tech and Kansas State, they will be in the field of four.
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