College Football Picks: Week 13 Predictions for Every Game
If you feel like the last few weeks of the 2014 college football season have been a whirlwind of chaos and mayhem, and you could use a break, this weekend might be a good time to relax.
With many of the top-ranked teams facing lesser competition this week, the overall slate of games isn't as exciting as that of previous weeks. But there are still plenty of good matchups to keep an eye on, and there's always a chance a few of the perceived cupcake games get hairy. Just ask TCU, which trailed by 10 at Kansas last Saturday before rallying to keep its playoff hopes alive, though that did cause the Horned Frogs to fall out of the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Check out our predictions for all of Week 13's games, as well as our experts' picks for the weekend's top contests, then give us your guesses in the comments section.
Last week: 34-15 (.694)
Season: 525-172 (.753)
No. 12 Kansas State at West Virginia
1 of 58
When: Thursday, Nov. 20; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Jake Waters threw three touchdown passes as Kansas State scored the game's final 28 points in a 35-12 home win in October 2013.
Kansas State (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) has, by far, the toughest road left of the candidates for the conference title. In addition to playing this one in Morgantown, the Wildcats end the season at Baylor, which means they'll have a huge say in who wins the Big 12.
For K-State to get that done, it has to bounce back from a rather convincing 21-point loss at TCU in which it didn't keep pace on offense and failed to slow the opponent down defensively. That's a lethal combination going into a hostile environment against a West Virginia team that has shown it can score in bunches.
West Virginia (6-4, 4-3) has lost two in a row, falling at Texas after losing in the final seconds at home to TCU. The Mountaineers have faced four teams that were ranked in the top seven at the time of play, all at home or on a neutral field, beating Baylor and losing the other three by a combined 23 points. Quarterback Clint Trickett and receiver Kevin White have been one of the best combos in the country, and if they get hot here, this could get out of hand early for K-State.
A K-State loss clears up the Big 12 field a bit, while beefing up Baylor and TCU's profile because of what it will do to West Virginia's resume.
Prediction: West Virginia 34, Kansas State 30
Final: Kansas State 26, West Virginia 20
North Carolina at Duke
2 of 58
When: Thursday, Nov. 20; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Ross Martin's 27-yard field goal with two minutes, 22 seconds left gave Duke a 27-25 win at North Carolina in November 2013 to clinch the ACC's Coastal Division title.
North Carolina (5-5, 3-3 ACC) needs a win in its final two games to partially salvage what's been a disastrous season. The Tar Heels have yielded at least 27 points in every game, and 43 on five occasions while ranking fourth worst in yards allowed.
Duke (8-2, 4-2) clinched the Coastal Division last season with a win over the Tar Heels, but this year, it must win here and against Wake Forest next week to repeat as champs. The Blue Devils are in this predicament after losing at home to Virginia Tech last week, a loss that could also impact their ability to gain the ACC's spot in the Orange Bowl as the top-rated team after Florida State.
"We've got two huge football games left," Duke coach David Cutcliffe told David M. Hale of ESPN.com. "That's the obvious. So what lies behind has no comparison to what lies ahead. None. Zero. We've got a two-game season. That's what we're faced with."
This is a huge game for both teams, but Duke needs it more. The short week should add to the craziness of what's one of the most significant matchups between schools normally battling it out for basketball supremacy.
Prediction: Duke 33, North Carolina 21
Final: North Carolina 45, Duke 20
Arkansas State at Texas State
3 of 58
When: Thursday, Nov. 20; 9:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Michael Gordon had 184 rushing yards and three touchdowns in Arkansas State's 38-21 home win over Texas State in November 2013.
Arkansas State (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) blew a 14-point lead at home, losing to Appalachian State, to knock it into a tie for third place in the conference. The Red Wolves are bowl-eligible, but with the Sun Belt only getting three automatic bids, finishing in the top three is critical to locking up a postseason invitation. Arkansas State has played in a bowl after each of the previous three seasons.
Texas State (5-5, 3-3) is looking for its first bowl bid, and now that it's no longer a transitional FBS member, it only needs to reach six wins to get a shot. The Bobcats have lost their past two by a combined seven points, including a three-point home loss to Georgia Southern.
These are two solid rushing teams, but the difference will be Texas State quarterback Tyler Jones, who is coming off back-to-back 300-yard passing games.
Prediction: Texas State 27, Arkansas State 21
Final: Texas State 45, Arkansas State 27
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UTEP at Rice
4 of 58
When: Friday, Nov. 21; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Taylor McHargue threw four touchdown passes, and Charles Ross ran for 152 yards and a TD in Rice's 45-7 home win over UTEP in October 2013.
UTEP (6-4, 4-2 Conference USA) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2010, showing vast improvement from a year ago particularly in terms of reducing the number of points it allows and how well it runs the ball. The Miners are fourth in the league in total defense, and behind Aaron Jones, they rush for 227 yards per game to rank 26th nationally.
Rice (6-4, 4-2) is the defending conference champion, but after losing at Marshall last week, the Owls aren't likely to win the West Division again. They need to win out and have Louisiana Tech lose its final two. Still, after an 0-3 start, they won six straight and should be headed to a third straight bowl game for the first time in program history.
Rice has won seven of eight in the series, and UTEP struggles away from El Paso.
Prediction: Rice 27, UTEP 23
Final: Rice 31, UTEP 13
Air Force at San Diego State
5 of 58
When: Friday, Nov. 21; 9:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: San Diego State scored 21 points in the fourth quarter, with Donnel Pumphrey's 10-yard touchdown run with 1:39 left giving the Aztecs a 27-20 win at Air Force in October 2013.
Air Force (8-2, 4-2 Mountain West) has made a huge turnaround from going 2-10 a year ago, winning four straight (including in overtime last week against Nevada), and is close to matching its best win total in the past 16 seasons. The Falcons run the ball more than any team in the country, 62.8 times per game, and average 288.4 yards on the ground.
San Diego State (5-5, 3-3) blew a 20-0 lead at Boise State last week to fall into a three-way tie with Fresno State and Nevada for the West Division lead. The Aztecs have been carried of late by running back Donnel Pumphrey, who has 1,363 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns.
Both of these teams have solid defenses, and it figures to come down to a late score. SDSU is 4-0 at home this season.
Prediction: San Diego State 27, Air Force 26
Final: San Diego State 30, Air Force 14
San Jose State at Utah State
6 of 58
When: Friday, Nov. 21; 9:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Chuckie Keeton accounted for four touchdowns in Utah State's 40-12 win at San Jose State in September 2013.
San Jose State (3-7, 2-4 Mountain West) has lost four straight, and its offense completely fell apart in last week's 13-0 home loss to a Hawaii team that came in with a 17-game road skid. The Spartans had three turnovers in that game, and for the season, they rank 120th in turnover margin at minus-11.
Utah State (8-3, 5-1) has put together a patchwork offense, particularly at quarterback, to stay in the hunt for the Mountain Division title. The Aggies are on their fourth starting passer, true freshman Kent Myers, who doesn't put up big numbers but has completed 75.4 percent of his throws during Utah State's four-game win streak.
Utah State will play for the division title next week at Boise, but it won't overlook this one en route to the bigger clash.
Prediction: Utah State 36, San Jose State 17
Final: Utah State 41, San Jose State 7
Eastern Kentucky at Florida
7 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: None
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) already has a win over an FBS team this season, winning at Miami (Ohio) in September. The Colonels, ranked 16th in the FCS poll, finished in second place in the Ohio Valley Conference and likely will get a playoff bid.
Florida (5-4) begins the season-ending death march of coach Will Muschamp, who announced he was stepping down Sunday in the wake of an overtime home loss to South Carolina. Two blocked kicks led to the loss, but so did continued issues with an offense that was supposed to be much improved.
Muschamp will finish out the season but won't coach any bowl game the Gators play in. To get a bowl bid, though, they'll need to likely win here since the finale is at unbeaten Florida State. With them losing to Georgia Southern at home last season, beating Eastern Kentucky isn't a given.
Prediction: Florida 28, Eastern Kentucky 14
Final: Florida 52, Eastern Kentucky 3
Charleston Southern at No. 10 Georgia
8 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: None
Charleston Southern (8-3) is playing its second game this season against an SEC team, having lost 21-20 at Vanderbilt in October. The Buccaneers outgained Vandy 389-295 and had the ball with a chance to win with less than nine minutes but couldn't get a go-ahead score. They're 0-15 all-time against FBS opponents.
Georgia (8-2) finished SEC play with a 6-2 record. It needs Missouri to lose once more to win the East Division and play in the conference title game. The Bulldogs are again without Todd Gurley, who tore his ACL in last week's blowout win over Auburn in his first game back following a four-game suspension.
Freshman Nick Chubb has run for 100-plus yards in five straight games, though, and the Bulldogs defense is playing with confidence after shutting down Auburn. Next week against Georgia Tech will be a much better test for Georgia, while this will be more of a chance to make last-minute adjustments in its final home game.
Prediction: Georgia 44, Charleston Southern 20
Final: Georgia 55, Charleston Southern 9
South Alabama at South Carolina
9 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: None
South Alabama (6-4) locked up bowl eligibility last week when it wrapped up Sun Belt play with a 24-20 win over Texas State. Now the Jaguars can beef up their resume and make themselves more appealing to bowl officials by finishing against an SEC team and next week against Navy. South Alabama is 0-3 against SEC teams, including a 35-3 home loss to Mississippi State in September.
South Carolina (5-5) ended SEC play on a high note, blocking a pair of kicks late and then forcing overtime at Florida before winning (and putting the final nail in Will Muschamp's coffin). The Gamecocks still need a win to lock up bowl eligibility, this being the easier of the remaining two since next week they visit in-state rival Clemson.
It's been a season full of surprising losses for South Carolina, including three times at home, but the Gamecocks are not so down to lose to a Sun Belt school.
Prediction: South Carolina 37, South Alabama 20
Final: South Carolina 37, South Alabama 12
Fordham at Army
10 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Army ran for 514 yards in a 55-0 home win over Fordham in October 2011.
Fordham (10-1) went 6-0 in the Patriot League to win that conference, earning an automatic bid to the FCS playoffs. The Rams are ranked eighth in the lower division, their only loss at No. 6 Villanova. They have one win over an FBS team, winning at Temple last season.
Army (3-7) won't be going to a bowl game for the fourth straight season, meaning its agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl has been severed. The Black Knights have wins over a pair of Mid-American teams and edged Connecticut in Yankee Stadium, but they've also lost at FCS Yale.
The Knights have only their rivalry game with Navy left after this, and that's in three weeks. Look for them to throw everything at Fordham to get the win.
Prediction: Army 34, Fordham 31
Final: Army 42, Fordham 31
No. 25 Minnesota at No. 23 Nebraska
11 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Minnesota beat Nebraska for the first time since 1960, getting three total touchdowns from quarterback Philip Nelson in a 34-23 home win in October 2013.
Minnesota (7-3, 4-2 Big Ten) gave Ohio State a challenge but couldn't do enough on either side of the ball to win that snowy game at home last week. As a result, the Golden Gophers fell behind in the West Division race yet still have a shot because they finish against two of their fellow title contenders. Both of those games are on the road, though, and Minnesota has dropped two of three away from Minneapolis.
Nebraska (8-2, 4-2) got humbled in multiple ways at Wisconsin last Saturday, first squandering an early 17-3 lead and then having Melvin Gordon set the FBS single-game rushing record on top of it. The Cornhuskers couldn't stop the run, nor could they produce anything offensively with a season-low 180 yards.
The 'Huskers have seen their average offensive output drop from 514.8 to 459.5 over the past two games, with Ameer Abdullah accounting for only 70 rushing yards. Without him, their offense lacks punch.
The home venue should help get Nebraska back on track, while also effectively eliminating Minnesota from the West race.
Prediction: Nebraska 30, Minnesota 17
Final: Minnesota 28, Nebraska 24
Northwestern at Purdue
12 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Dan Dierking's seven-yard touchdown run with 3:54 left gave Purdue a 20-17 win at Northwestern in October 2010.
Northwestern (4-6, 2-4 Big Ten) made a great late comeback to force overtime at Notre Dame last week, then knocked off the reeling Fighting Irish for a huge road victory that kept the Wildcats' thin bowl hopes alive. After nearly two seasons' worth of bad luck, things finally went their way, as running back Justin Jackson continues to develop as a strong option.
Purdue (3-7, 1-5) has dropped four in a row and will finish below .500 for the third straight season. The Boilermakers have allowed 38.3 points per game during that skid, and the offense has started to tail off after a hot start to the year.
If Northwestern has indeed turned a corner with the Notre Dame win, it should take this one easily. But it will end up being a close game, possibly decided on the last play.
Prediction: Northwestern 31, Purdue 28
Final: Northwestern 38, Purdue 14
Rutgers at No. 11 Michigan State
13 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Brian Leonard ran for 150 yards in Rutgers' 19-14 home win over Michigan State in September 2004.
Rutgers (6-4, 2-4 Big Ten) locked up bowl eligibility for the fourth straight season by beating Indiana last week, making it 6-0 against teams with a .500 record or worse and winless against opponents above .500. The Scarlet Knights are 90th nationally in total defense, allowing more than 200 yards per game both on the ground and in the air.
Michigan State (8-2, 5-1) has scored at least 37 points in eight of 10 games this season, an attack that's shown steady improvement all year with quarterback Connor Cook and running back Jeremy Langford pacing the country's No. 7 offense. Though no longer in contention for the Big Ten title and the semifinals, getting into a major bowl is still in play if the Spartans win out.
Don't expect MSU to let up to play nice for one of the Big Ten's newcomers, as it won by 22 at Maryland last week.
Prediction: Michigan State 45, Rutgers 16
Final: Michigan State 45, Rutgers 3
Marshall at UAB
14 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Rakeem Cato threw three touchdown passes and ran for another in Marshall's 56-14 home win over UAB in November 2013.
Marshall (10-0, 6-0 Conference USA) has clinched a spot in the conference title game for the second year in a row, but the Thundering Herd still have things to play for in the regular season. They want to host the final and continue to impress the playoff selection committee in hopes of getting the Group of Five at-large bid, a possibility that was improved by blowing out defending C-USA champ Rice last week.
UAB (5-5, 3-3) is at a crossroads with its long-struggling program. The Blazers are a win away from being bowl-eligible for just the fourth time (after going 2-10 a year ago), yet at the same time first-year coach Bill Clark is having to push aside distractions associated with rumors the program could be disbanded in the near future.
UAB has hung tight with good teams this season, putting up 34 points at Mississippi State earlier this year, but the Blazers don't have enough to stop the Herd.
Prediction: Marshall 48, UAB 31
Final: Marshall 23, UAB 18
UTSA at Western Kentucky
15 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: None
UTSA (3-7, 2-4 Conference USA) had high hopes for this season with so many seniors and the chance to get into a bowl game after winning seven games in 2013, but most things have gone wrong for the Roadrunners. They've been woeful on offense, averaging 16.4 points per game and ranking fourth worst in the country in total offense.
Western Kentucky (5-5, 2-4) won eight games last year but didn't get a bowl invite because it didn't finish in the top two of the Sun Belt. Getting to six wins in C-USA should make a bid materialize, and with next week's finale at conference leader Marshall this is the place to get it done.
The Hilltoppers average 41.6 points per game but allow 39.8, so they make it fun to watch. UTSA doesn't look like it has the weapons to keep up, though.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 43, UTSA 23
Final: Western Kentucky 45, UTSA 7
SMU at UCF
16 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Quarterback Blake Bortles rushed for a pair of touchdowns, including the game-winner on a 15-yard run with 14 seconds left, to give UCF a 17-13 win at SMU last December.
SMU (0-9, 0-5 American) came within four seconds of ending a long losing streak last week, but it instead blew a 13-point fourth quarter lead to fall at home to South Florida. The Mustangs' defense has gotten a lot better since Tom Mason took over as coach in September, but the offense is still ranked second worst nationally in yardage and only averages 10 points per game.
UCF (6-3, 4-1) is a half-game behind Memphis and tied with Cincinnati in the race for the American title, but the Knights will need help to win the league outright because they don't play either of those teams this season. Though still ranked 109th in total offense, UCF has upped its scoring to average 29 points per game over the last five.
UCF has improved immensely throughout the season and will win big.
Prediction: UCF 38, SMU 13
Final: UCF 53, SMU 7
Kansas at No. 21 Oklahoma
17 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Blake Bell threw two touchdown passes in Oklahoma's 34-19 win at Kansas in October 2013.
Kansas (3-7, 1-6 Big 12) pushed TCU to the limit last week, showing fire and intensity under interim coach Clint Bowen despite having guaranteed a losing season for the sixth year in a row. Quarterback Michael Cummings has averaged 284.2 passing yards since taking over as starter, with seven touchdown passes in his last four games.
Oklahoma (7-3, 4-3) rallied from 14 points down to win at Texas Tech last week, doing so without quarterback Trevor Knight. Cody Thomas showed off great mobility in his first start, and with Knight ruled out again this week because of a neck injury, that's the approach the Sooners will take again.
Having lost back-to-back home games, Oklahoma will look to show its fans that the season isn't lost by winning big.
Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Kansas 20
Final: Oklahoma 44, Kansas 7
Penn State at Illinois
18 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Christian Hackenberg threw a 15-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Carter in overtime to give Penn State a 24-17 home win over Illinois in November 2013.
Penn State (6-4, 2-4 Big Ten) will be playing in a bowl game for the first time since before it was banned from postseason play by the NCAA in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky scandal. The Nittany Lions will need to keep improving on offense to have a chance of winning that bowl game, though, as for the season they average only 21.3 points per game and are coming off just their fourth game with at least 24 points scored.
Illinois (4-6, 1-5) lost by 16 at home to Iowa last week, getting it oh so close to a third losing record in as many seasons under coach Tim Beckman. The Fighting Illini have allowed at least 24 points to every FBS opponent they've faced this season, while their own offense has tailed off to average only 18.7 points over the past three.
Both of these teams find unique ways to lose games, but if Beckman wants to have any shot of holding onto his job, he'll need the best game plan possible to deal with Penn State's No. 3 defense.
Prediction: Illinois 23, Penn State 21
Final: Illinois 16, Penn State 14
Indiana at No. 6 Ohio State
19 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; noon ET
Last meeting: Braxton Miller threw two touchdown passes and ran for two more in Ohio State's 42-14 road win over Indiana in November 2013.
Indiana (3-7, 0-6 Big Ten) got 307 rushing yards from Tevin Coleman and still lost by 22 points at Rutgers last week, a microcosm of this season for the Hoosiers. Despite Coleman's 1,678 yards and 12 TDs, Indiana has failed to knock off anyone of significance (other than its surprise win at Missouri) because of a defense that ranks 91st in yards allowed and gives up 33.6 points per game.
Ohio State (9-1, 6-0) moved further up the playoff rankings after its impressive road win over Minnesota last week, getting the Buckeyes in position to potentially sneak into the semifinals if they win out. With J.T. Barrett playing like possibly the next redshirt freshman quarterback to win a Heisman, OSU has averaged 48.8 points per game during its eight-game win streak.
OSU hasn't taken its foot off the gas, offensively, in the past two months, and there's no expectation that will change against a vulnerable opponent and with the selection committee becoming more and more impressed by the Buckeyes' play.
Prediction: Ohio State 58, Indiana 17
Final: Ohio State 42, Indiana 27
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest
20 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 12:30 ET
Last meeting: Logan Thomas had 280 passing yards and two touchdowns and also scored twice on the ground in Virginia Tech's 38-17 win at Wake Forest in October 2011.
Virginia Tech (5-5, 2-4 ACC) has had such an uneven season that it's hard to predict what will happen each game. The Hokies have road wins over a pair of ranked teams, handing Ohio State its only loss and then winning at Coastal Division leader Duke last week. Yet, in between they've lost three times at home in ACC play.
Wake Forest (2-8, 0-6) is arguably the worst power-conference team in the country, its wins coming against FCS Gardner-Webb and Army. The Demon Deacons, on a six-game losing streak, rank last in the nation in total offense at 204.6 yards per game and have rushed for fewer yards all season (341) than Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon had (408) in three quarters last week.
Wake has fought hard, despite the losing, and was tied with Clemson in the fourth quarter two weeks ago. It's the kind of game Tech loses this season, but with its 21-year bowl game streak in jeopardy, it will find a way to win.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 21, Wake Forest 17
Final: Wake Forest 6, Virginia Tech 3 (2 OT)
Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion
21 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 1 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
Louisiana Tech (7-3, 6-0 Conference USA) has won five straight and in league play is winning by an average of 26 points. The Bulldogs' offense is vastly improved from a year ago, averaging 36.2 points this season compared to 19.2 in 2013 despite nearly the same amount of yardage. The emergence of quarterback Cody Sokol as a solid quarterback has been key to the rise.
Old Dominion (4-6, 2-4) needs to win out to be bowl-eligible, but as a transitioning FBS team the Monarchs would only earn an invite if all other full-fledged FBS programs had been slotted into games. Getting to six wins would be a major accomplishment for them, however, especially after dropping five in a row midseason.
Sokol and big-armed Old Dominion senior quarterback Taylor Heinicke, who has 14,375 passing yards and 127 touchdowns for his career, should make for a fun clash. But Tech also has a great running back in Kenneth Dixon, which will be the difference.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 35, Old Dominion 27
Final: Old Dominion 30, Louisiana Tech 27 (OT)
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
22 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 1 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Zurlon Tipton ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns in Central Michigan's 27-22 win at Western Michigan in November 2013.
Western Michigan (7-3, 5-1 Mid-American) has won five in a row to keep itself in the thick of the West Division race. Freshman running back Jarvion Franklin has scored 23 touchdowns, 22 on the ground, and last time out quarterback Zach Terrell threw for 357 yards and four TDs on 17-of-19 passing.
Central Michigan (7-4, 5-2) has won three in a row but struggled last week at home against improving Miami (Ohio). The Chippewas have had some very surprising results, including a win at Northern Illinois and home losses to Syracuse (by 37) and Ball State.
This rivalry is pretty even, usually low-scoring and often goes to the road team. Expect most of that again this year, except with more offense.
Prediction: Western Michigan 30, Central Michigan 28
Final: Western Michigan 32, Central Michigan 20
Washington State at No. 13 Arizona State
23 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 1 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Quarterback Taylor Kelly accounted for seven touchdowns (five passing, two rushing) in Arizona State's 55-21 win at Washington State in October 2013.
Washington State (3-7, 2-5 Pac-12) won't be playing beyond next week, but it has seen what the future holds, and it looks promising thanks to how redshirt freshman Luke Falk has played. Hardly used before Connor Halliday broke his leg two games ago, Falk has jumped right in and thrown for 817 yards and seven touchdowns in fewer than eight quarters of action.
Arizona State (8-2, 5-2) slipped on the road last week at Oregon State. ASU not only fell out of the hunt for the playoffs, but it also put its South Division title hopes in jeopardy. The Sun Devils win the division if they win out and are tied with USC, but not if tied with UCLA because of a 35-point home loss to the Bruins.
ASU still has to play at rival Arizona, who is also fighting for the South crown, next week. Before that, though, it has to dispatch a Washington State team that can put up yards and points but doesn't have the weapons to slow down the Sun Devils' offense.
Prediction: Arizona State 47, Washington State 24
Final: Arizona State 52, Washington State 31
New Mexico at Colorado State
24 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 1:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Kapri Bibbs ran for 291 yards and six touchdowns in Colorado State's 66-42 win at New Mexico in November 2013.
New Mexico (3-7, 1-5 Mountain West) clinched a seventh straight losing season last week when it fell at Utah State, but the Lobos once again played well on the road. All of their victories have been away from home, where their fifth-ranked rushing offense seems to be able to maintain momentum throughout the game.
Colorado State (9-1, 5-1) is trying to earn itself a spot in the College Football Playoff's side bowls, but that can only happen if the Rams win the conference title. They're tied with Boise State and Utah State for the top spot in the Mountain Division. They need Boise State to lose again to get into the Mountain West title game.
Needing style points as much as wins, the Rams will crush New Mexico.
Prediction: Colorado State 45, New Mexico 21
Final: Colorado State 58, New Mexico 20
Eastern Michigan at Ball State
25 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 2 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Jahwan Edwards scored three rushing touchdowns in Ball State's 51-20 win at Eastern Michigan in September 2013.
Eastern Michigan (2-8, 1-5 Mid-American) is headed to its 18th losing season in the past 19, and possibly third straight with only two wins. The Eagles have lost 13 straight road games.
Ball State (3-7, 2-4) lost a pair of mid-week conference games before having last weekend off, part of a rebuilding year after the Cardinals won 10 games in 2013. Quarterback Jack Milas has performed well since taking over the starting job five games ago.
Ball State has a clear advantage.
Prediction: Ball State 41, Eastern Michigan 20
Final: Ball State 45, Eastern Michigan 30
Tulsa at Houston
26 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Tulsa ran for 350 yards in a 41-7 win at Houston in November 2012, when both teams were in Conference USA.
Tulsa (2-8, 2-4 American) went 11-3 and won the Conference USA title two years ago, but since the Golden Hurricane have won five games. Last year it was bad offense, and this season it's been porous defense that has plagued the Golden Hurricane and kept the contributions of quarterback Dane Evans and big-play receiver Keevan Lucas from mattering more.
Houston (5-4, 3-2) has been a defense-driven team this year, but despite forcing 26 turnovers the Cougars' inconsistency on offense has led to an up-and-down season that has included home losses to 3-7 teams UTSA and Tulane.
Don't expect another such result, not in the Cougars' final home game of the season and with a chance to become bowl-eligible on the line.
Prediction: Houston 37, Tulsa 20
Final: Houston 38, Tulsa 28
Savannah State at BYU
27 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
Savannah State (0-11) has lost 20 straight games dating back to September 2013, and this season the Tigers have been outscored 495-137, including losses at Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern by scores of 61-7 and 83-9. They have never beat an FBS team.
BYU (6-4) has righted the ship after a four-game losing streak following the loss of star quarterback Taysom Hill to injury, and after beating UNLV last week the Cougars have already accepted a bid to the Miami Beach Bowl on Dec. 22 against an American Athletic Conference team. The end of the regular season is about continuing to improve their defense and give quarterback Christian Stewart more confidence.
It will be hard not to feel good about this big romp of a win.
Prediction: BYU 59, Savannah State 13
Final: BYU 64, Savannah State 0
No. 15 Arizona at No. 17 Utah
28 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Ka'Deem Carey ran for 232 yards and a touchdown in Arizona's 35-24 home win over Utah in October 2013.
Arizona (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12) won for the second time this season on the final play, following up a Hail Mary victory in September with last week's win over Washington on a last-second field goal. The Wildcats have played six games decided by seven points or fewer, going 5-1.
Utah (7-3, 4-3) is 4-2 in such games and has played in overtime on three occasions. That includes a double-overtime victory at Stanford last week, keeping the Utes on the edge of the race for the tight South Division title.
Arizona has seen its offense sputter the past few weeks, averaging only 24 points and 376.3 yards per game over the past three. Utah's offense has been inconsistent all season, reaching 30 points only once since mid-September.
The similarities between these teams are eerie, going right down to how each is adept at getting to the quarterback. The Utes lead FBS with 47 sacks, and, according to FootballOutsiders.com, via Daniel Berk of the Arizona Daily Star, Utah is No. 1 in percentage of times getting a sack on passing downs while Arizona is second.
Prediction: Arizona 28, Utah 23
Final: Arizona 42, Utah 10
No. 8 Ole Miss at Arkansas
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Bo Wallace threw for 416 yards and three touchdowns in Ole Miss' 34-24 home win over Arkansas in November 2013.
Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 SEC) has crept back up the playoff rankings to a spot that might earn it a major bowl bid, despite having lost its last two conference games. The Rebels still have a chance to affect the West Division race and could end up in a three-way tie if certain things go their way.
But that first means getting the offense clicking without the services of playmaking wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, as well as keeping quarterback Bo Wallace on task and not making mistakes. Ole Miss' defense can take care of the rest, though it's been susceptible to the run of late.
Arkansas (5-5, 1-5) finally broke through and got its long-sought-after SEC win last week, shutting out LSU with impressive play on both ends. Now a bowl bid seems like a very real possibility, as the Razorbacks need a win this week or next week at Missouri to get in the postseason for the first time since 2011.
Clinching that will have to wait another week, as Ole Miss uses its bye week to refocus for the stretch run.
Prediction: Ole Miss 26, Arkansas 17
Final: Arkansas 30, Ole Miss 0
No. 24 Louisville at Notre Dame
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
Louisville (7-3) finished its first season in the ACC with a solid 5-3 record, playing tough against Florida State a few weeks back before falling late. Defense has paced the Cardinals, who lead FBS with 22 interceptions, as safety Gerod Holliman has 13 and is one shy of tying the FBS single-season record. Louisville will be going the rest of the way with freshman Reggie Bonnafon at quarterback after Will Gardner was lost with a knee injury.
Notre Dame (7-3) has lost two in a row, the most recent an overtime setback at home to Northwestern in a game it led by 11 points midway through the fourth quarter. Turnovers remain the Fighting Irish's biggest issue, with quarterback Everett Golson giving it away 19 times in the last seven games. Golson has also been the bulk of the offense, with 3,383 yards and 35 touchdowns.
Notre Dame is spiraling downward, but it will get this one done despite some more mistakes.
Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Louisville 23
Final: Louisville 31, Notre Dame 28
Boston College at No. 3 Florida State
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Jameis Winston threw for 330 yards and four touchdowns in Florida State's 48-34 win at Boston College in September 2013.
Boston College (6-4, 3-3 ACC) has been one of the most successful teams in the country on the road, winning all four of its road games. However, none has come against a particularly strong team, or one that had the defense to slow down mobile quarterback Tyler Murphy. Murphy has rushed for 1,006 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging more than seven yards per carry.
Florida State (10-0, 7-0) hasn't had to deal with many mobile quarterbacks this season, but it has struggled to slow down potent rushers. Last week Miami's Duke Johnson ran for 130 yards, and a few weeks earlier Louisville's Michael Dyer had for 134.
FSU has trailed in seven of its last eight games, yet it has battled back in each because of Jameis Winston's second-half play and some luck at times. The remaining regular-season opponents might not have the ability to hold off such a comeback, but that doesn't mean the Seminoles should continue playing from behind.
Being unable to have "game control," as the selection committee has put it, is contributing to FSU's drop from No. 1 to No. 3 in the playoff rankings despite being on a 26-game win streak, according to Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel:
"FSU appears to be punished for not controlling games wire-to-wire and winning in tight contests against what many deem inferior competition," Sonnone wrote.
Now that this variable has become a popular talking point, the Seminoles will need to be more assertive early in games. Look for them to try and jump on BC early and dominate, something they haven't done much this season.
Prediction: Florida State 37, Boston College 17
Final: Florida State 20, Boston College 17
Georgia State at No. 22 Clemson
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
Georgia State (1-9) has lost nine in a row since beating FCS Abilene Christian in its opener. The Panthers are 1-21 since moving into FBS in 2013, and, though they have a solid offense led by quarterback Nick Arbuckle, they rank 120th in total defense.
Clemson (7-3) saw its six-game win streak end last week at Georgia Tech, with freshman quarterback DeShaun Watson getting injured again and senior backup Cole Stoudt throwing two pick-sixes. The Tigers' offense just isn't the same without Watson in the game, but their defense is more than capable of carrying them.
Clemson dominates.
Prediction: Clemson 54, Georgia State 13
Final: Clemson 28, Georgia State 0
No. 16 Wisconsin at Iowa
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: James White ran for 132 yards and two touchdowns in Wisconsin's 28-9 win at Iowa in November 2013.
Wisconsin (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten) ran over Nebraska last week thanks to Melvin Gordon's FBS-record 408 rushing yards that he managed in only three quarters. It was part of a 581-yard rushing effort for the Badgers, who now rank third in the country on the ground at 351.2 yards per game.
What's going to keep the Badgers atop the West Division and make for a good challenge for Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, though, will be their defense. They shut down Nebraska and its run game, and rank No. 1 overall by allowing 244 total yards per game.
Iowa (7-3, 4-2) is one of three teams trailing Wisconsin by a game in the West, and with home games against the Badgers and Cornhuskers left, the Hawkeyes will be a major player. However, they need to find some consistency, as they've split the past four while allowing 89 points in the losses and only 21 in the wins.
Iowa doesn't have the offense to match Wisconsin's run attack, but it can defend well in most cases. It ranks 18th overall in total defense, but against the run that rank drops to 46th.
Since losing at Northwestern in October, Wisconsin has won five straight and been dominant. Expect the Badgers to continue their run of excellence.
Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Iowa 20
Final: Wisconsin 26, Iowa 24
Maryland at Michigan
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Michigan beat Maryland, 45-17, in September 1990.
Maryland (6-4, 3-3 Big Ten) has had a hot-and-cold debut in the Big Ten, pulling out close wins against Penn State and Iowa but getting blown out by powers Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Winning at PSU a few weeks back was a big positive, but the Terrapins still struggle with offensive consistency and rank 114th in total yards.
Michigan (5-5, 3-3) has won three of four to try and save what was looking like a lost season, and it now has a strong chance to make a bowl game for the fifth straight season. Though the Wolverines still have trouble scoring (20.7 points per game) and rank 117th in total offense, their eighth-ranked defense has kept them in many games of late.
The Wolverines squeak out another low-scoring affair to get bowl-eligible.
Prediction: Michigan 21, Maryland 20
Final: Maryland 23, Michigan 16
Texas Tech at Iowa State
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Davis Webb threw for 415 yards and three touchdowns in Texas Tech's 42-35 home win over Iowa State in October 2013.
Texas Tech (3-7, 1-6 Big 12) has lost three straight and seven of eight. It has secured its first losing season since 2011 and only second in the past 22 years. The Red Raiders have been turnover prone, coughing it up 22 times for a minus-nine turnover margin. Despite not giving it away at all last week against Oklahoma, their defense prevented them from holding a lead.
Iowa State (2-7, 0-6) is also on a three-game skid, a fifth straight losing record locked up. The Cyclones have given up 37.8 points per game, allowing at least 30 in all but one contest. Combined with the 100th-ranked offense, there's been a lot of disappointment in Ames.
ISU has also hard some hard luck, and it will get a brief respite to claim its lone Big 12 win of the season.
Prediction: Iowa State 38, Texas Tech 34
Final: Texas Tech 34, Iowa State 31
Florida International at North Texas
36 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: T.Y. Hilton had 283 all-purpose yards in Florida International's 41-16 home win over North Texas in September 2011, when both teams were in the Sun Belt.
Florida International (4-7, 3-4 Conference USA) has quadrupled its win total from a year ago, using an opportunistic defense that has forced an FBS-leading 31 turnovers to overcome an offense that ranks 120th in yardage. Two of the Golden Panthers' wins have come against C-USA teams that could end up playing in bowl games.
North Texas (3-7, 1-5) won a bowl game last year, along with nine games, but after graduating a huge part of that team the Mean Green have struggled mightily in 2014. Their three wins have been by an average of 44 points per game, but for the season they're getting outscored by nearly three points per contest.
Neither team has anything to lose, so expect an entertaining contest with the home team taking it.
Prediction: North Texas 29, Florida International 24
Final: North Texas 17, Florida International 14
Tulane at East Carolina
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Cairo Santos' 42-yard field goal in the third overtime gave Tulane a 36-33 home win over East Carolina in October 2013.
Tulane (3-7, 2-4 American) has struggled to move the ball all season, averaging only 18.3 points per game and topping 14 points just once since mid-September. The Green Wave made a bowl last year, but now have clinched an 11th losing season in the past 12.
East Carolina (6-3, 3-2) has dropped two straight on the road, not only falling out of contention for a major bowl bid but also slipping far back in the race for the American title. The Pirates have some great offensive weapons in quarterback Shane Carden, running back Breon Allen and receivers Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones that should give them a chance in every game.
Hardy enters this one with 346 career receptions, needing four to surpass former Oklahoma wideout Ryan Broyles for the most most in FBS history. Hardy will get there as East Carolina gets back in the win column.
Prediction: East Carolina 33, Tulane 13
Final: East Carolina 34, Tulane 6
Syracuse at Pittsburgh
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 3:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Isaac Bennett's five-yard touchdown run on the final play of the third quarter gave Pittsburgh a 17-16 win at Syracuse in November 2013.
Syracuse (3-7, 1-5 ACC) has regressed immensely from a year ago. Its offense has sputtered all year, but it's been even worse since quarterback Terrel Hunt got injured in early October. The Orange have lost seven of eight and topped 20 points only once in that stretch.
Pittsburgh (4-6, 2-4) needs to win out to finish the regular season 6-6 for a fourth straight year, but it has only won once since starting 3-0. The Panthers have a solid rushing attack, ranking 15th in the country at 253.4 yards per game, but 12 lost fumbles have contributed to a minus-seven turnover margin. The defense has also broken down of late, allowing 49 points per game over the last three.
Pitt has more talent and skill and should take this one, assuming it doesn't give the game away.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Syracuse 17
Final: Pittsburgh 30, Syracuse 7
South Florida at Memphis
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 4 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Memphis forced five turnovers to pace a 23-10 win at South Florida in November 2013.
South Florida (4-6, 3-3 American) scored with four seconds left to cap a fourth-quarter rally and win at SMU last week, keeping its faint hopes of bowl eligibility alive. The Bulls have doubled their win total from a year ago, but with only 306 yards and 18.6 points per game, they've struggled to hang with uptempo opponents.
Memphis (7-3, 5-1) controls its destiny to win the American. Its head-to-head win over Cincinnati gives the Tigers the advantage to claim the crown. After winning only 12 games over the previous five seasons, a solid bowl invitation is headed their way.
There's no concern about an upset here.
Prediction: Memphis 31, South Florida 14
Final: Memphis 31, South Florida 20
Stanford at California
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 4 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Kevin Hogan threw five touchdown passes in Stanford's 63-13 home win over rival California in November 2013.
Stanford (5-5, 3-4 Pac-12) is having its worst season since 2009, which marked the start of its rise to prominence as the West Coast's best team. Offensive struggles have kept this team from winning close games. It lost in double-overtime at home to Utah last week and failed to top 20 points for the sixth time in 2014.
The Cardinal remain a strong defensive team, as they rank fourth in total yards allowed and sixth against the pass.
California (5-5, 3-5) has the No. 4 pass offense in the country, thanks to sophomore Jared Goff's 3,398 yards and 30 touchdowns. This, combined with a rising running game led by Daniel Lasco, has enabled the Golden Bears to go from 1-11 a year ago to within a victory of bowl eligibility. Where Cal still struggles, and what holds it back, is on defense, which is second worst in the FBS.
Stanford has won four straight meetings of the Big Game by an average of 26.3, but this will be the closest battle in the series in a while.
Prediction: California 27, Stanford 23
Final: Stanford 38, California 17
Western Carolina at No. 1 Alabama
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 4 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Eddie Lacy ran for three touchdowns and A.J. McCarron set the school single-season touchdown record in Alabama's 49-0 home win in November 2012.
Western Carolina (7-4) opened the season with a 36-31 loss at South Florida, coming close to its first-ever win over an FBS team in 47 tries. The Catamounts finished tied for second in the Southern Conference and are hoping for an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs.
Alabama (9-1) has moved into the top spot in the playoff rankings thanks to its win over previously unbeaten Mississippi State, but also because it's playing some of the best football in the country. The Crimson Tide took away the Bulldogs' best weapons to control the game, something they've done in most cases this season.
With the Iron Bowl next week all that remains for the Crimson Tide to get into the SEC title game, this contest is nothing more than a glorified scrimmage. And though scoring shouldn't be kept, the Tide will have plenty of it.
Prediction: Alabama 43, Western Carolina 10
Final: Alabama 48, Western Carolina 14
Louisiana-Monroe at New Mexico State
42 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 4 p.m. ET
Last meeting: New Mexico State beat Louisiana-Monroe 21-14 in October 2003, during New Mexico State's previous stint in the Sun Belt.
Louisiana-Monroe (3-7, 2-4 Sun Belt) has lost six in a row after a promising 3-1 start, but during the losing streak the Warhawks have dropped the last four by a combined 18 points. That includes a five-point loss at Texas A&M and last week's seven-point setback to Louisiana-Lafayette, which is undefeated in Sun Belt play.
New Mexico State (2-8, 1-5) is on an eight-game losing streak following a 2-0 start, though at home the Aggies have been far more competitive. Aside from a 28-point loss to ULL last time out, their home results have been losses of three, eight and eight points during the skid.
ULM has the worst offense in the Sun Belt, while NMSU features one of the worst defenses in the country. Expect a sloppy game, but the home team will end its streak.
Prediction: New Mexico State 33, Louisiana-Monroe 29
Final: Louisiana-Monroe 30, New Mexico State 17
Colorado at No. 2 Oregon
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 4:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Marcus Mariota accounted for seven touchdowns in Oregon's 57-16 win at Colorado in October 2013.
Colorado (2-8, 0-7 Pac-12) has been in nearly every one of its conference games, leading at one point against five of those opponents. The Buffaloes have weapons on offense, particularly reliable receiver Nelson Spruce—the FBS leader in catches, with 99—but they allow 38.6 points per game and rank 106th in total defense.
Oregon (9-1, 6-1) will be playing in next month's Pac-12 title game in Santa Clara, California, though its opponent is still undecided. Until then, the Ducks face two teams from the bottom end of the conference against whom they cannot afford to show much of any slippage. Marcus Mariota's Heisman campaign is looking strong, and this is the kind of game where he can pad his numbers but also get off the field early to remain healthy for the postseason.
Look for the Ducks to win handily, getting plenty of subs in during the second half.
Prediction: Oregon 58, Colorado 21
Final: Oregon 44, Colorado 10
Appalachian State at Louisiana-Lafayette
44 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 5 p.m. ET
Last meeting: None
Appalachian State (5-5, 4-2 Sun Belt) has won four in a row to make bowl eligibility a possibility in its first season of FBS play. The Mountaineers are coming off a comeback win at Arkansas State last week, as Marcus Cox has averaged 224 rushing yards with nine touchdowns during the win streak. Appalachian State ranks 18th in the FBS in rushing, at 246.2 yards per game.
Louisiana-Lafayette (7-3, 6-0) appears headed for another Sun Belt title, though because it doesn't play Georgia Southern—who is also undefeated in conference play—it could be co-champions. The Ragin' Cajuns have won six in a row, with the running tandem of Elijah McGuire and Alonzo Harris pacing the offense. ULL ranks 24th nationally in rushing, at 231 yards per game.
The run games are equal, but ULL has the edge at quarterback. Terrance Broadway will have a big game.
Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 31, Appalachian State 20
Final: Appalachian State 35, Louisiana-Lafayette 16
Samford at No. 14 Auburn
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Michael Dyer ran for 157 yards and a touchdown and Onterio McCalebb added two rushing TDs in Auburn's 35-16 home win over Samford in November 2011.
Samford (7-3) opened the season with a 48-14 loss at TCU and then won seven of nine in FCS competition, finishing second in the Southern Conference. The Bulldogs have one win against an FBS team, beating Georgia State last season.
Auburn (7-3) is out of the playoff and SEC race after back-to-back losses, as it was completely shut down at Georgia last week. But the Tigers can still throw a wrench in the machine next week at Alabama, making this breather game the last chance to fix what's broken before the big one.
Look for Auburn to try some different things to prepare for Alabama while still winning easily.
Prediction: Auburn 46, Samford 23
Final: Auburn 31, Samford 7
Miami (Florida) at Virginia
46 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Miami got two rushing touchdowns from Dallas Crawford in a 45-26 home win over Virginia in November 2013.
Miami (6-4, 3-3 ACC) became the latest team this season to jump out to a lead on defending champ Florida State, only to have a victory pulled out from under it down the stretch. But in that game the Miami offense showed its continued improvement, with freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya topping 300 yards for the first time since September and Duke Johnson notching his sixth straight 100-yard game.
Virginia (4-6, 2-4) has used defense to get to this point, which is better than last year's 2-10 record but still a disappointment overall after starting 4-2. During their four-game losing streak the Cavaliers have only managed 17.5 points per game. They are on the precipice of a third straight losing record.
Miami showed a lot in that loss to FSU, enough to indicate the Hurricanes should take this one.
Prediction: Miami 28, Virginia 20
Final: Virginia 30, Miami 13
Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee
47 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Kyle Griswould caught a 19-yard touchdown pass from Logan Kilgore to give Middle Tennessee a 42-35 overtime win at Florida Atlantic in September 2013.
Florida Atlantic (3-7, 2-4 Conference USA) has lost three straight and will miss out on a bowl game for the sixth straight season. The Owls have averaged 45.3 points in their victories but only 12.9 in the losses, topping 20 in defeat only once.
Middle Tennessee (5-5, 4-2) turned it over five times in a loss at Florida International last week, putting the Blue Raiders at minus-three in turnover margin this season. Giving it away has prevented them from matching last season's results, but a win here locks up second place in the East Division and should land them a bowl invite.
Blue Raiders take it relatively easily.
Prediction: Middle Tennessee 34, Florida Atlantic 14
Final: Middle Tennessee 35, Florida Atlantic 34
Oklahoma State at No. 7 Baylor
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Clint Chelf threw for 370 yards and three touchdowns in Oklahoma State's 49-17 home win over Baylor in November 2013.
Oklahoma State (5-5, 3-4 Big 12) is riding a four-game losing streak. With games in Waco and at Oklahoma left on the schedule, the Cowboys' run of eight straight seasons with a bowl game is in serious jeopardy. The OSU offense has fallen apart, with just 40 points in its last four losses after averaging 37.7 during its 5-1 start.
Baylor (8-1, 5-1) remains on the cusp of the playoff race, though it still ranks behind a team it beat (TCU) in the eyes of the selection committee. The Bears must try to improve their resume with two more sound wins, which might mean having to blow the doors off OK State to prove their point.
"Conventional wisdom would suggest that if the Bears can climb within one spot of TCU, the head-to-head advantage would kick in, and catapult them past the Horned Frogs as well," wrote ESPN.com's Jake Trotter.
Add in how badly OK State beat the Bears in Stillwater last season, effectively knocking Baylor out of the BCS title game race, and there's plenty of motivation for a beatdown.
Prediction: Baylor 53, Oklahoma State 23
Final: Baylor 49, Oklahoma State 28
No. 20 Missouri at Tennessee
49 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Maty Mauk threw three touchdown passes and added 114 rushing yards in Missouri's 31-3 home win over Tennessee in November 2013.
Missouri (8-2, 5-1 SEC) has a simple route to a second straight East Division title: win its last two games. A loss puts the Tigers into a tie with Georgia, who has the head-to-head edge and would get the crown. But that means playing two teams with momentum over the final weeks of the season, starting with a road game against a Tennessee team looking to become bowl-eligible.
The Tigers have managed to play their best ball on the road this season, winning at Toledo, South Carolina, Florida and, most recently, coming from behind in the second half to win last week at Texas A&M. They've actually won nine straight road games, the third-longest such streak in the nation, according to David Morrison of the Columbia Daily Tribune.
"When we think about playing, whether we play here or on the road, it is the ability to be able to focus and be able to handle it when good things and bad things happen," Missouri coach Gary Pinkel told Morrison.
Tennessee (5-5, 2-4) provides a very different challenge on the road, though, because the Volunteers are on a roll. Ever since dual-threat sophomore Joshua Dobbs was inserted at quarterback, their offense has come alive. Back-to-back wins has the Vols in line for a bowl bid, and the opportunity to influence the division race has to also entice this up-and-coming team.
Mizzou's road magic comes to an end, giving Tennessee a postseason bid and Georgia the division title.
Prediction: Tennessee 34, Missouri 24
Final: Missouri 29, Tennessee 21
Vanderbilt at No. 4 Mississippi State
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 7:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Coach Dan Mullen earned his first SEC victory in Mississippi State's 15-3 win at Vanderbilt in September 2009.
Vanderbilt (3-7, 0-6 SEC) has lost its league games by an average of 20.5 points per game, and the Commodores appear headed for their worst record since going 2-10 in 2010. Offensive woefulness has lingered all year, especially in SEC play, where they've averaged 296 yards per game.
Mississippi State (9-1, 5-1) dropped from first to fourth in the most recent playoff standings after losing at Alabama. The selection committee clearly gave the Bulldogs credit for their great start despite a resume that features zero wins against teams with fewer than three losses. With Mississippi State still alive for the West Division title, as well as the playoff hunt, next week's Egg Bowl has major national implications.
MSU fell behind early at Alabama and couldn't assert its own offense, so look for it to make a major push to jump on Vandy and get back into gear ahead of the trip to Ole Miss.
Prediction: Mississippi State 45, Vanderbilt 17
Final: Mississippi State 51, Vanderbilt 0
No. 19 USC at No. 9 UCLA
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When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Quarterback Brett Hundley had two rushing touchdowns in UCLA's 35-14 win at USC in November 2013.
USC (7-3, 6-2 Pac-12) tried to give away last week's win over California, a 38-30 victory that was 31-2 late in the second quarter. The Trojans are one of many teams still fighting to win the South Division title, but they must beat their rivals on the road and then get help from others.
The Trojans get back a key piece of their defense, with safety Josh Shaw reinstated from a season-long suspension stemming from his elaborate preseason lie related to a domestic violence investigation and double-ankle injury.
UCLA (8-2, 5-2) finishes up at home against a pair of in-state rivals, and by winning out the Bruins get the South. Four straight wins have come with a blend of Brett Hundley and Paul Perkins moving the offense and their defense making the necessary stops.
The crosstown rivalry hasn't had this much on the line in a while, and it will be USC coach Steve Sarkisian's first chance to try and reclaim the Trojans' dominance in Los Angeles. UCLA hasn't won three straight in the series since winning eight in a row from 1991-98, but that changes Saturday night.
Prediction: UCLA 38, USC 31
Final: UCLA 38, USC 20
Cincinnati at Connecticut
52 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Brendon Kay threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns in Cincinnati's 41-16 home win over Connecticut in October 2013.
Cincinnati (6-3, 4-1 American) is fighting for first place in the conference, but because of a loss to leader Memphis it needs to keep winning and get help. The Bearcats have been all about the offense this season, with a passing game that ranks ninth in the country, but their defense has allowed 40 or more points four times this year.
Connecticut (2-7, 1-4) has played hard against the better teams in the American, but last time out it lost to Army at Yankee Stadium. First-year coach Bob Diaco is slowly developing this team, but the Huskies aren't ready to beat Cincinnati.
They won at home against defending champ UCF, though, so this won't be a gimme game for Cincy.
Prediction: Cincinnati 37, Connecticut 31
Final: Cincinnati 41, Connecticut 0
Boise State at Wyoming
53 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 10:15 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Grant Hedrick threw three touchdown passes and Jay Ajayi ran for three scores in Boise State's 48-7 home win over Wyoming in November 2013.
Boise State (8-2, 5-1 Mountain West) is locked in a three-way tie with Colorado State and Utah State for the Mountain Division lead and plays at home in its finale next week against Utah State. The Broncos are on a five-game win streak since losing at Air Force, with their offense clicking on all cylinders behind quarterback Grant Hedrick (3,256 yards of total offense, 23 total touchdowns) and running back Jay Ajayi (1,280 yards, 17 rushing scores).
Wyoming (4-6, 2-4) has dropped five of six, with its offense mostly nonexistent for much of the season. The Cowboys managed only three points at home against Utah State two weeks ago, their second straight home loss.
Boise State is on a roll, and only mistakes will slow the Broncos down.
Prediction: Boise State 27, Wyoming 23
Final: Boise State 63, Wyoming 14
Fresno State at Nevada
54 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 10:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Derek Carr threw for 487 yards and three touchdowns in Fresno State's 41-23 home win over Nevada in November 2013.
Fresno State (4-6, 3-3 Mountain West) has had a major dropoff since winning 11 games a year ago, yet with two games left the Bulldogs can still win another West Division title. They're tied with Nevada and San Diego State for that top spot, though on the road this season they're 1-4.
Nevada (6-4, 3-3) fell in overtime at Air Force last week, despite 375 yards of total offense from quarterback Cody Fajardo and 121 rushing yards with three touchdowns from Don Jackson. Jackson has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, and with his ability to take some of the touches away from injury-prone Fajardo, the Wolf Pack's offense has become more diverse.
Nevada has lost its four games by a combined 26 points, so it's always in the game. It will control this one from the outset.
Prediction: Nevada 43, Fresno State 24
Final: Fresno State 40, Nevada 20
Oregon State at Washington
55 of 58
When: Saturday, Nov. 22; 10:30 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Bishop Sankey ran for 179 yards and three touchdowns in Washington's 69-27 win at Oregon State in November 2013.
Oregon State (5-5, 2-5 Pac-12) pulled off a late night shocker to beat Arizona State last Saturday, reversing a four-game losing streak to keep a shot at a third straight bowl bid alive. The Beavers have the Pac-12's all-time passing yardage leader in Sean Mannion (13,124), but after throwing 37 touchdown passes last year he has only 12 this season.
Washington (6-5, 2-5) has lost four of five, coughing up a lead late at Arizona last week as turnovers caught up to the Huskies. As one of the better teams in the country in turnover margin, at plus-10, the Huskies can't afford giveaways with their inconsistent offense.
Washington's defense has carried the team for much of the season, with sack magnets Hau'oli Kikaha and Danny Shelton and two-way talent Shaq Thompson leading the way. That group will swarm Mannion and get to him regularly, giving the Huskies the seventh win they need to be bowl-eligible with a 13-game schedule.
Prediction: Washington 31, Oregon State 20
Final: Washington 37, Oregon State 13
UNLV at Hawaii
56 of 58
When: Sunday, Nov. 23; midnight ET
Last meeting: Nolan Kohorst kicked a 44-yard field goal as time expired to give UNLV a 39-37 home win over Hawaii in October 2013.
UNLV (2-9, 1-5 Mountain West) has lost four straight and is headed for its fourth year with at least nine losses in the past five. The Runnin' Rebels had to rebuild after making a bowl game in 2013, and they're winless on the road with an average deficit of 25.2 points.
Hawaii (3-8, 2-4) ended a 17-game road losing streak with a 13-0 win at San Jose State last week, showing off a defense that is much improved from a year ago. The Warriors' offense hasn't been consistent all year, however, which has led to seven games with 18 points or fewer.
The Warriors play better at home, and despite a sparse crowd they'll feed of that advantage.
Prediction: Hawaii 30, UNLV 20
Final: Hawaii 37, UNLV 35
Akron at Kent State
57 of 58
When: Tuesday, Nov. 25; 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Jawon Chisholm ran for 151 yards in Akron's 16-7 home win over Kent State in November 2013.
Akron (5-6, 3-4 Mid-American) crushed Massachusetts on Tuesday to move within a game of being bowl-eligible for the first time since 2005. The Zips are only 1-4 on the road, though that lone victory came against Pittsburgh.
Kent State (1-9, 0-6) had its Wednesday game in Buffalo postponed because of snow, a contest that didn't have much meaning for the Golden Flashes but was critical to Buffalo's hopes of being bowl-eligible. Kent was in the MAC final two years ago, but since has dropped 19 of 24 games.
All Kent has left to play for is to spoil a rival's bowl hopes, but it won't get the job done.
Prediction: Akron 27, Kent State 17
Update: This game has been moved to Friday, Nov. 28 at 1 p.m. ET, due to the postponementof Kent's game at Buffalo. An updated prediction will be included with the Week 14 picks.
Ohio at Miami (Ohio)
58 of 58
When: Tuesday, Nov. 25, 7 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Tyler Tettleton threw three touchdown passes to Donte Foster in Ohio's 41-16 home win over Miami in October 2013.
Ohio (5-6, 3-4 Mid-American) has reached a bowl game the past five seasons, but after losing 21-14 at home to Northern Illinois on Tuesday the Bobcats must win on the road to get in line for another bowl bid. The Bobcats are averaging only 20.2 points per game, failing to top 14 points in five of their six losses.
Miami (2-9, 2-5) is finishing up a fourth straight losing season, but after dropping 21 straight games, just the chance to get to three wins would make Chuck Martin's first year a huge success. Quarterback Andrew Hendrix has thrown for 3,062 yards and 22 touchdowns, accounting for more yards and TDs himself than the RedHawks as a team had in 2013.
Miami ends on a high note, and in doing so prevents a rival from going bowling.
Prediction: Miami 34, Ohio 24
Final: Ohio 24, Miami 21
Statistical information courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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