Blueprint for How a 2-Loss SEC Team Makes the College Football Playoff

We haven't reached the point in the college football season where there's a realistic discussion about a two-loss team making the College Football Playoff. That said, we're one chaotic weekend away, if not one game away, from making it happen. 

As the playoff selection committee showed earlier this week with its most recent rankings, a team's record by itself means little. Oregon, with one loss, leapfrogged No. 2 Florida State. The actual swapping of the spots means little, as B/R's Adam Kramer and Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel pointed out, but the message it sent does mean something. 

That message, put simply, is a question: What has a team done? The record itself is secondary in the larger picture. Just ask undefeated Marshall, which remains unranked. Conversely, Auburn and Ole Miss, a pair of two-loss teams, sit at No. 9 and No. 10, respectively. 

That leads us back to the discussion about a two-loss team getting into the four-team field. Specifically, how could a two-loss SEC team claim one of those spots? 

It's the SEC West or Bust

As far as the SEC's playoff picture is concerned, a West Division team, and only a West Division team, has a shot. Not Missouri, which lost to Indiana and was shut out by Georgia at home. Not the Bulldogs, which have a pair of losses to Florida and South Carolina, which are a combined 9-8. Not the Gators, which have three losses. 

An SEC East team is not making the playoff, even if it wins the SEC. If it does, take the pin out of the grenade and blow the whole thing up, because the committee would have created an unmitigated disaster. 

Ultimately, four teams remain in the running for a playoff spot: Alabama (8-1), Mississippi State (9-0), Ole Miss (8-2) and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Auburn (7-2). The Tide are ranked at No. 5 in the latest playoff standings, but they control their path with a win over Mississippi State this weekend. 

There is still time for carnage, however. Beyond this weekend, Alabama and Auburn still have to play, as do Mississippi State and Ole Miss. The potential for a two-loss team winning the West is not far-fetched. 

The interesting thing to watch will be how the selection committee evaluates losses in November, not just for the SEC but for all of college football. If the whole body of work really does matter, when a team loses shouldn't be a big deal—at least in theory. 

A Conference Champion Only?

The possibility remains that the SEC gets two teams into the playoff. Specifically, that scenario revolves around the outcome of Saturday's game between Alabama and Mississippi State. 

That's a conversation for another day, however, as it involves a lot of hypothetical situations. As B/R colleague Barrett Sallee wrote this week, the SEC should be far more concerned about getting one team into the four-team field and not cannibalizing itself out of the picture altogether. 

A two-loss West team, on the other hand, makes things more cut and dry, because it would need to be the conference champ. That's not a debate right now. 

To put it in the words of selection committee chair Jeff Long, according to ASAPSports.com, "Let me remind you, and I will say this each and every week: Conference championships won will be an additional factor, but of course we won't have that information until December."

Where things get potentially complicated is if a one-loss West team loses the SEC championship. But, again, the scenarios in that situation aren't worth exploring until they actually arrive—if they arrive at all. 

No, conference champions aren't a prerequisite for the playoff. That's created a lot of intrigue about the postseason, and so far, that's been good for the sport. Yes, it's possible the team with the best record isn't a divisional champion, let alone conference champion.

However, there's a lot of good football being played elsewhere. Florida State remains undefeated. Oregon has one loss, but clearly the committee thinks highly of the Ducks. TCU is in the playoff if the season ended today, while Baylor and Ohio State are very much in the conversation. 

Putting an SEC team in the playoff that didn't win its own conference or division over those teams would be a tough one to justify without a ton of blowback. 

Or Pray for Chaos

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Of course, assuming everything will go according to plan is a death wish. Oregon, Baylor, Ohio State, Florida State—they all have at least one more difficult game on the schedule. If this season has taught us anything, it's that there are no truly great teams that are head and shoulders above the rest. Everyone is vulnerable. 

If a two-loss SEC team is not the conference champion, it needs to pray for the rest of the college football landscape to be reduced to ash. The number of ways that could happen are myriad. 

The top of the SEC West is deep, which is not the same thing as the SEC itself being deep. There won't be a benefit of the doubt for losing to Georgia or Missouri, at least not without all hell breaking loose elsewhere. 

If the top of the West cannibalizes on itself, it needs the rest of college football to put the selection committee in an unenviable situation of selecting four teams tepidly. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All rankings reflect the latest playoff standings.