Eagles vs. Packers: Breaking Down Philadelphia's Game Plan

If the Philadelphia Eagles hope to win at Lambeau Field this Sunday, they better be prepared to score. The Green Bay Packers are one of five NFL teams averaging north of 30 points per game, and their Aaron Rodgers-led attack has shown no signs of slowing down.

Most teams would be wise to try chewing up clock with long, sustained drives designed to keep the ball out of Rodgers’ hands or to turn the game into a field-position battle—but we all know a Chip Kelly offense isn’t going to do that. Philadelphia’s head coach believes in going uptempo in just about any situation. Therefore, my advice is to score points.

Insightful, I know. Bear with me here.

While the Eagles are actually averaging over 30 points per game as well, a lot of that has to do with the nine return touchdowns scored on either defense or special teams—by far the most in the NFL.

If we take those out of the equation, which we can confidently to an extent because Rodgers has turned the ball over four times all season, the club’s points per game dips from 31.0 to 24.0—and 24 points hasn’t been enough to beat the Packers at Lambeau all year.

Being the genius that came up with the innovative strategy of trying to move the ball into the end zone, I predict the Eagles will need to score more than that to beat the Packers on Sunday.

Now, on to accomplishing that goal.

Forgive me if this still seems oversimplistic, but the scoring-points game plan hinges on two key objectives.

That is, to run the football (with success) and to eliminate turnovers.

Hopefully I haven’t lost too many of you yet, because both objectives actually serve a purpose beyond the obvious.

	YPG	YPC	1ST%	TD
Stats	142.6	4.6	26.7	9
Rank	30th	t-28th	31st	t-23rd

As it turns out, running the football happens to be the best way to dissect this Green Bay defense. Surrendering 142.6 yards per game, the Packers rank 30th on the ground, while the 4.6 yards per carry allowed are tied for 28th. Meanwhile, the unit is holding opposing quarterbacks to an 80.2 passer rating, which is the fifth-best mark in the league.

Not only is pounding the rock the way to go against the Pack, but it’s going to facilitate some of the philosophies that were touched on at the top. Running keeps the clock moving, and it creates manageable down and distances that the offense should be able to convert.

GM	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
Wk 8 @ ARZ	21	83	4.0	0
Wk 9 @ HOU	24	117	4.9	0
Wk 10 vs. CAR	12	19	1.6	1

Of course, there is the caveat that the Eagles must run with success, which they couldn’t do on Monday night against a similarly ranked Carolina Panthers run defense. All-Pro running back LeSean McCoy carried 12 times for 19 yards, while Chris Polk ran five times for 11 yards.

That won’t get the job done in Green Bay. Yes, defenses are keying on McCoy and his cohorts, but the Philadelphia offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season. It’s time the big uglies open some holes.

Assuming the Eagles are able to move the ball on the ground, it should go a long way toward helping the offense carry out objective No. 2, which was to avoid turnovers.

I don’t think the profound impact of turnovers requires any explaining, but if there’s a quarterback in the NFL you wouldn’t want to give any extra opportunities, it’s Rodgers. Every giveaway is just one more chance for the Green Bay QB to go back to work.

With the Packers offense averaging 41.5 points in home games this season, it would be nothing short of the Eagles signing their own death certificate.

Michael Perez/Associated Press

While Mark Sanchez was impressive in his first start in place of Nick Foles under center for Philadelphia, the man has a history of turning the ball over that those four quarters do not erase. Sanchez threw 69 interceptions and lost 20 fumbles in 62 regular-season starts as a member of the New York Jets.

Say what you want about the coaching staff and supporting cast in New York, most turnovers ultimately fall on the quarterback. Against a Packers secondary that has notably given signal-callers trouble in 2014, maybe it’s not the best idea to ask Sanchez to lead the charge this Sunday.

If the Eagles can’t control the pace of the game on the ground, and they can’t protect the football, it may not matter how many points they wind up scoring. They’ll have simply given Rodgers too many possessions.

If You Can’t Beat Him, Limit Rodgers

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Philadelphia’s one best shot at escaping Green Bay with a victory would be if they somehow could harass Rodgers into having a bad game. Ranked second in the NFL with 32 sacks on the year, the Eagles pass rush may well be able to pound the Packers field general into submission.

In fact, we diagrammed some of the many ways the Birds could pressure Rodgers on Sunday.

Having said that, it hasn’t happened yet.

With 26 total touchdowns running and throwing to four turnovers, for my money, Rodgers is currently having the best season of any offensive player in the league.

That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but I certainly wouldn’t count on it.

Let’s assume the Eagles’ 22nd-ranked pass defense overall isn’t going to shut Rodgers down. What else can the unit do to give Philadelphia—currently as much as seven-point underdogs in some books, according to Odds Shark—a shot at the upset this week?

	YDS/GM	SK	40+	RATING
Stats	251.7	32	11	90.4
Rank	22nd	2nd	t-30th	14th

A great place to start would be to take away the big gains in the passing game—momentum-shifting plays that not only power the Green Bay offense, but which have haunted the Eagles all season.

Only one team has given up more completions of 40 yards or more this season than Philadelphia, and only one team has more completions of 40 yards or more than the Packers.

The last thing the Eagles can afford to do is make it that easy on Rodgers.

Obviously, that's far easier said than done. No doubt, defensive coordinator Bill Davis will sick the hounds on Rodgers—only there may not be a better quarterback in the game today at extending the play and turning it into a rainbow downfield.

If Philadelphia’s pass rush doesn’t get home at least some of the time, it could be a long day at Lambeau.

RECORD	CMP%	YDS	AVG	TD/INT
4-0	68.5	1,072	9.9	15/0

If the Eagles can force Rodgers and company to go on long, sustained drives, the chances of forcing a stop on third down, landing a drive-killing sack or even dare I say creating a turnover increases by the minute.

Any possession that ends in a punt, a field goal or especially no points going on the board will be a win for the Birds.

If Rodgers is allowed to ad lib or hook up with wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb for a bunch of big-gainers, though, even just one or two could be backbreakers.

The Packers’ record is only 6-3, but with a bona fide league Most Valuable Player candidate under center, there aren’t many tougher challenges in the NFL today. Add in the fact that the club is 4-0 at home this season and winners of five of its last six, and it’s also one of the hottest.

At 7-2, the Eagles are certainly capable of going into Green Bay and winning on the road—just as long as they do all of the little things right.