UFC 180 Bold Predictions: Who Leaves Mexico City as Interim Heavyweight Champ?

One thing we can say in UFC 180’s favor: There is no shortage of intrigue.

As the UFC prepares to make its first trek to Mexico City on Saturday, the future of injured heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez casts a large shadow. If all goes smoothly, either Mark Hunt or Fabricio Werdum will emerge from that gloom with an interim title and a date with Velasquez some time in 2015.

We just don’t know who it will be. Or when Velasquez will return. Or where they’ll fight, though the early plan is for the Octagon to return to Mexico. Best laid plans, as they say.

In addition to that, Kelvin Gastelum tries to make his case as a top-10 welterweight, and Dennis Bermudez attempts to keep his eight-fight win streak alive at featherweight.

The other eight fights will be intriguing too, as we try to figure out just who the heck all these people are.

Bleacher Report MMA Lead Writers Chad Dundas (that’s me) and Jonathan Snowden can’t help you with that last part, be we can see the future. Read on to find out how it all goes down this weekend...

Prediction: Mark Hunt Wins Our Hearts, but Not the Interim Heavyweight Title

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Chad: By now we’ve all seen Ariel Helwani’s sprawling interview with an obviously troubled and aggressively ambivalent Mark Hunt. I’ve been mostly bemused by Hunt’s status as a fan favorite during his recent comeback—and continued to be on this week’s Co-Main Event Podcast—but it’s impossible not to feel for the guy after watching this.

Simply put, Hunt doesn’t sound like a man who is about to go out and win the UFC interim heavyweight championship listed as more than a 3-to-1 underdog on Odds Shark.

The strangest part of the interview is Hunt looking back on his six-fight losing streak from 2006-10 and mentioning that you can’t accomplish anything in this sport if you are mentally distracted...all while giving the impression he’s really, really mentally distracted leading up to this bout. His stand-and-bang style doesn’t necessarily require the focus of a heart surgeon to be dangerously effective, but this public appearance sure didn’t inspire confidence.

Hunt flat-out told Helwani he “doesn’t care” what happens on Saturday night, which is enough to make me believe this version of the 40-year-old Super Samoan won’t be able gut it out if Werdum puts him in a bad spot—say, a wrenching armbar or slowly ratcheting triangle choke.

Werdum will still have to get Hunt to the ground in order to put the pressure on, but if he can do that, I expect some first-round tappage.

Jonathan: I don't think there's anything super-unusual about Mark Hunt's demeanor during the Helwani interview. Spending 30 minutes with most MMA reporters is pretty awful, and you can be sure he had been dreading it for hours.

Seriously, though: Who can fault Hunt for saying he "doesn't care" what happens next? This is a man who had already had a sensational career in kickboxing before ever entering the cage. Everything he's doing now is gravy. Icing. Insert food metaphor here. If Mark Hunt is reading, he's no doubt thinking about eating this article.

Remember, just a few years ago the UFC wanted no part of Hunt. This was back in the day when making it into the UFC was an honor, before there were upwards of 50 fight cards a year. They would have rather paid him not to fight than have him pollute one of their cards.

Now? Now he's taking on Werdum with UFC gold on the line. Will he take the belt home? Maybe. But either way he's already won.

Prediction: Bellator Ruins UFC's Special Night

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Jonathan: UFC 180, to be frank, stinks. At least on paper.

Unfortunately, that's beginning to be the rule rather than the exception for UFC pay-per-views.

This actually had the looks of something worth ordering when it was first announced. It's always fun to see Cain Velasquez fight—and watching the UFC try to sell an American fighter who speaks mediocre Spanish as a conquering hero to native Mexicans would have been enormously entertaining.

But this card stopped mattering the moment Cain's knee collapsed.

While Mark Hunt's improbable rise to the top of the ladder is a fun story for hardcore fans, Hunt on short notice may not be a pretty sight. And the loss of Joe Lauzon vs. Diego Sanchez leaves the top of the card woefully barren. The likes of Jake Ellenberger and Kelvin Gastelum are in the co-main event slot while complete unknowns like Augusto Montano are improbably included on the main card.

Meanwhile, under the radar, Bellator is putting on a heck of a free card in competition on Spike TV. Stephan Bonnar and Tito Ortiz will provide a shot of nostalgia while Michael Chandler and Will Brooks supply the world-class fighting. And the fun, fortunately, doesn't stop there. Mo Lawal and Melvin Manhoef provide more star power than anyone on the UFC's card outside of the main event and Mike Richman vs. Nam Phan is the kind of action fight that gets a night started right.

Two years ago it would have been hard to imagine saying this—but the UFC, with the full power of PPV, is fighting a losing battle with Bellator on cable. And that, Chad, can't be a good thing can it?

Chad: Honestly, I think World Series of Fighting kind of dropped the ball here. I was hoping WSOF executives would have the good sense to position their event as an amazing appetizer to the prime-time Bellator/UFC cook-off, instead of trying to pose as a mediocre main course option. For fans feeling skittish about plunking down $55 for the depleted UFC 180 card, the notion of tuning in to WSOF 15 at around 6 p.m. ET and then rolling right into Bellator 131 at 9 would’ve been a pretty appealing alternative.

Unfortunately, it was not to be. My satellite guide now tells me both Bellator and WSOF start at 9 p.m., with UFC 180 kicking off an hour later. So, some hard decisions are going to have to be made.

Personally? I probably still lean toward UFC 180, with three fights I’m legitimately interested in seeing—Hunt vs. Werdum, Gastelum vs. Ellenberger and Lamas vs. Bermudez. By comparison, Bellator 131 is Chandler-Brooks and then everything else. That said, I ain't going to be mad at anyone who feels differently.

On this night, Twitter, a nearby remote and instant replay will all be our friends.

Prediction: Dennis Bermudez Keeps Rolling, and It Doesn't Matter a Bit

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Chad: Dennis Bermudez enters as the slight favorite over Ricardo Lamas this weekend, in a bout that might be a title-eliminator in nearly any other division. In a featherweight class currently being held hostage by Conor McGregor’s mouth, however, it strikes me that Bermudez has very little to gain and almost everything to lose here.

If you believe the odds, the 27-year-old Menace stands a good chance of extending his current win streak to an astounding eight fights at UFC 180. During that stretch—which runs all the way back to May 2012—he’s also won four of the UFC’s performance-based bonuses, including back-to-back Performance of the Night awards in his last two.

So by the fight company’s own metrics, Bermudez is a wildly successful, wildly entertaining dude with a body of work unmatched by any other 145-pound contender.

But he ain’t McGregor.

And he ain’t Cub Swanson.

And he ain’t Frankie Edgar.

As a result, Bermudez is typically the very last guy we think of while brainstorming potential next tests for champion Jose Aldo. That’s a shame, but I expect it won’t change this weekend, even though Bermudez defeats Lamas and then does his best to antagonize McGregor during his post-fight interview.

Jonathan: Bermudez is the perfect guy to remember next time you're tempted to write a young fighter off. In 2010, when he was still just 24 years old, Bermudez fell to Diego Brandao, the third consecutive losing performance on his professional resume.

It would have been easy to look at his record on Sherdog's Fight Finder and assume he'd never amount to much. Instead, after winning seven in a row in the UFC, he's on the cusp of being on the cusp of contender-hood.

What's missing among those seven victims is a recognizable name. Clay Guida was the first. Lamas would be another impressive scalp. With him in the bag, it's reasonable to start talking title shots.

But Chad is right—for that talk to begin, Bermudez will have to do some talking himself. That's just how the game is played in 2014.

Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum Announces Himself to the World

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Jonathan: In March, Kelvin Gastelum went toe-to-toe with Rick Story in one of the very best fights of the year. It was a coming-out party for the 23-year-old wrestler—or at least it should have been.

There was a time when a fight like that, and Gastelum's newly developed jab, would have had time to percolate within the community. Over the next week, people would have jumped on board the Gastelum train as it was leaving the station for the first time.

It would have had time to resonate.

In today's MMA landscape, that just simply can't happen. First, the fight was on the Fox Sports 2 network, available, apparently, only to illegal Internet streamers and Fox executives. So no one saw it.

Then, it was on to the next. There was no time for something as old-fashioned as reflection. Eight days later the UFC was back on Fox Sports 1, with the Joe Rogan screaming about some other fight in endless television commercials. Gastelum who? Story what?

This fight could be different. Jake Ellenberger has found a role as a gatekeeper and will be going into the cage to stop Gastelum dead in his tracks. Improbably given a co-main event event slot, the two have a chance to show the world what they're all about.

For Gastelum, that means a second chance to show UFC fans he has what it takes to be a real contender. He will beat Ellenberger—this time with the world watching—and ascend into rarefied air at welterweight.

Chad: Double digits always look impressive for an undefeated fighter, so for Gastelum to improve to 10-0 with a win over a respected vet like Ellenberger would be a pretty good double whammy. It would also be good to see him hit 170-pounds on the nose, after he weighed in 2.75 pounds heavy for his last appearance against Nico Musoke.

Jon’s point about Gastelum struggling to find his footing amid the UFC’s new jam-packed schedule is well made, though. One of the more subtle unforeseen consequences of the UFC’s newly obese menu of events is the difficulty it creates in making new stars. You’d think it’d be the exact opposite, but it’s not.

Nonetheless, Gastelum rolls in officially ranked No. 11 in the welterweight division and as a 2-to-1 favorite over No. 7 Ellenberger. If he wins this—and I think he will—it should signal a new phase in his career: one where he’s regarded as a hard-charging next-gen talent.