College Football Week 12: Picking the CFP Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Week 12 has the unenviable task of following Week 11, but even without as many College Football Playoff-relevant games on the schedule, there is enough action for fans and handicappers and fan/handicappers to get excited about.
Five games feature opponents from the CFP Top 25, highlighted by a pair that might decide division champions: Mississippi State at Alabama in the SEC West and Nebraska at Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. A rematch of last year's "Prayer at Jordan-Hare" and a trendy upset pick down in Florida are also on the Week 12 marquee.
Last week I regressed to the mean—literally—by going 7-9 against the spread. That puts me at 16-16 since tapping in for Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer (and 19-19 if you count my Week 1 locks). You would do just as well to flip a coin as you would to heed my advice.
So please, scroll through if you have 15 minutes to spare.
Otherwise, I can save you some time.
No. 8 Ohio State at No. 25 Minnesota
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The Line: Ohio State (-13)
Minnesota is 7-2 and just sneaked into the Top 25. It accomplished a similar feat with a similarly back-loaded schedule in 2013, losing by 13 to Wisconsin and 11 at Michigan State to end the regular season.
This year, the Gophers get Ohio State in a letdown spot: fresh off the biggest win of the Urban Meyer era. The Buckeyes are Big Ten favorites after blowing the doors off Michigan State, although they did not make the seismic leap they hoped for in the CFP standings.
Ultimately, I think that means an angry instead of jaded Ohio State team takes the field. And in that case, I think it's at least two touchdowns better than the Gophers. J.T. Barrett has this offense humming, and Minnesota—even after scoring 51 against Iowa last week—does not have the firepower to keep up.
The Pick: Ohio State (-13)
No. 19 Clemson at No. 22 Georgia Tech
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The Line: Clemson (-3)
Georgia Tech's offense against Clemson's defense is one of the best matchups of the season—or at least so say the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders.
According to those numbers, the Yellow Jackets have the No. 2 offense in college football, which might be jarring to anyone who hasn't been paying attention. But Paul Johnson's triple-option has undergone a renaissance in 2014, averaging 47.5 points in its last four games.
However, the same numbers trumpeting Georgia Tech as the No. 2 offense in college football claim Clemson has the No. 1 defense. My preseason pick of Brent Venables for the Broyles Award will not come to fruition—congrats, TCU's co-offensive coordinators; you've earned it!—but the sentiment behind it was accurate.
Clemson's defense is all sorts of good.
In this game, though, that might be burying the lede. Freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson will make his first start since injuring his hand against Louisville. The Tigers offense was monumentally different before Cole Stoudt was forced back into the lineup.
Watson makes the difference Saturday.
The Pick: Clemson (-3)
No. 1 Mississippi State at No. 5 Alabama
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The Line: Alabama (-8)
This line opened at minus-6.5 before getting bet up a couple of points…which I get. Mississippi State is the No. 1 team, but Alabama has more "talent" and has in many ways been playing better. The Crimson Tide rank No. 1 on the F/+ ratings. The Bulldogs rank No. 6.
Alabama has been especially good at home, running Florida and Texas A&M off the field in its two SEC games at Bryant-Denny. It won those games by a combined 80 points (and could have easily won by more).
Still, it seems like Alabama-eager bettors sucked the value off the Crimson Tide and placed it squarely in the camp of Dak Prescott. The Bulldogs beat a not-yet-realized LSU team in Tiger Stadium earlier this season, and they did it in impressive fashion.
Mississippi State is not a fluke. It might not be better than Alabama, but it's not a fluke. It can stay within at least eight points.
The Pick: Mississippi State (+8)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 16 Nebraska at No. 20 Wisconsin
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The Line: Wisconsin (-6)
How healthy is Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah?
And how much does that really matter?
Abdullah went down in the first half against Purdue two weeks ago and practiced Tuesday with a brace on his left knee, per Sean Callahan of HuskerOnline.com. Reading the tea leaves, it sounds like he'll try to play against Wisconsin; but it doesn't sound like he'll be "healthy."
Backup Imani Cross is a much different player than Abdullah: a pure power back unsuited for a lead role. He gained just 66 yards on 20 carries in relief of Abdullah against Purdue. If Abdullah isn't healthy, Nebraska might have to rely on the arm of Tommy Armstrong against a Badgers defense that is peaking at the right time.
That (plus Melvin Gordon) is enough for me to lean Wisconsin.
The Pick: Wisconsin (-6)
No. 23 Utah at Stanford
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The Line: Stanford (-7.5)
What am I missing here?
I know it's something, but…what?
Utah has been the better team all season. Both teams have killer defenses and putrid offenses (i.e., there won't be many points), and the Utes beat a far superior Stanford team in 2013. So why are the Cardinal laying more than a touchdown at home?
The only thing I can think of is fatigue.
Utah is coming off a brutal three-game stretch that featured a last-second win against USC, an overtime loss at Arizona State and a soul-crushing defeat against Oregon. Stanford is coming off a bye.
Regardless, this is one of the fishiest lines of the year. In handicapping parlance, "fishy" refers to a line in which the bookmakers "know something." I know that sounds nebulous and stupid, but it works.
Let me have the side that makes no sense.
The Pick: Stanford (-7.5)
No. 9 Auburn at No. 15 Georgia
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The Line: Georgia (-2)
We know what Auburn is capable of, good and bad. We know what Georgia is capable of, good and bad. We know that there is no good way to tell which Auburn or which Georgia shows up.
We know that we should not bet on this game.
If forced to pick, though, I would lean toward the Tigers, whose three best wins (over Kansas State, LSU and Ole Miss) are better than any win on Georgia's resume (over Clemson?). The F/+ ratings have Auburn ranked No. 5 and Georgia ranked No. 13, which supports what the eye test tells me: that Auburn is the slightly better team.
And yes, I know that Todd Gurley is coming back this week. I think he will be as awesome as usual. But I also don't see how Georgia intends to stop Auburn's offense; that is, how a defense that let Florida rush for 418 yards intends to stop the best running game in the country.
Can Gurley play defensive tackle?
The Pick: Auburn (+2)
Missouri at No. 24 Texas A&M
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The Line: Texas A&M (-5.5)
Texas A&M is a deeply flawed team with a high ceiling. Missouri is a deeply flawed team with a low ceiling.
Ultimately, that's the best lean I can find.
Both of these teams have looked bad more often than good during SEC play, but A&M's best game—last week's win at Auburn—is better than anything Missouri has even come close to. The Tigers' most impressive result was a game in which they gained just 119 yards.
Is it bad that Kyle Allen—a true freshman quarterback with two career starts, one of which was a stinker against a defense from the Sun Belt—inspires drastically more confidence than Maty Mauk?
The Pick: Texas A&M (-5.5)
No. 3 Florida State at Miami (Florida)
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The Line: Miami (+3)
According to the F/+ ratings, Miami has been the most underrated team in the country, placing only three spots behind Florida State (No. 12 to No. 9).
It has gotten to this point with balance, ranking No. 10 in offense and No. 18 defense. The only other teams that rank in the top 18 of both categories are Alabama, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Mississippi State, TCU and Baylor.
By contrast, Florida State ranks No. 29 in defense, struggling on occasion with its tackling. Miami running back Duke Johnson is one of the hardest players in the country to tackle (and is playing the best football of his career). If the 'Noles spot Miami one of their patented first-half deficits, they might not get enough stops to come back.
Is this the week that Liston hits the mat?
The Pick: Miami (+3)
No. 12 Michigan State at Maryland
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The Line: Michigan State (-12.5)
Michigan State's defense is not the same as it was last year. But it's also not as bad as it looked against Ohio State. It is still good enough to make above-average offenses look below average and below-average offenses look horrible.
Maryland at full strength has a below-average offense. On Saturday it will be without its best offensive player, receiver Stefon Diggs, who was suspended for unsportsmanlike conduct against Penn State (and is now expected to miss the rest of the season with a kidney injury).
In essence, Maryland has gone from a below-average offense to something worse, which makes it the perfect "get right" opponent for an angry Michigan State defense and coaching staff. And Sparty's offense has been good enough to cover double-digit spreads all season.
The Pick: Michigan State (-12.5)
No. 17 LSU at Arkansas
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The Line: Arkansas (-2)
LSU has played well the past month, but it's getting points on the road against a team that's lost its past 17 SEC games?
Huh?
It makes sense, though, when you think about it. Arkansas has not been as bad as its record and is coming off a bye. LSU just lost a taxing (both physically and mentally) overtime game to Alabama. Plus, Arkansas almost beat the Tigers in Baton Rouge last season.
"We need to go to a bowl," Arkansas offensive line coach Sam Pittman said Tuesday. "We have to go one at a time, but it would be a shame if this group didn't go to a bowl. We have a bowl-worthy team."
If the Razorbacks lose Saturday, going to a bowl would require back-to-back wins against Ole Miss and Missouri to end the season. In other words: They sort of need to win this game.
And I think this time they actually do.
The Pick: Arkansas (-2)
Other Top 25 Games
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Virginia Tech at No. 21 Duke (-5)
Virginia Tech is coming off a bye and needs this game just as much as Duke—sort of. The Blue Devils are 8-1 with a technical shot at making the playoff, but the Hokies are 4-5 and need a win to avoid having their bowl hopes pressed against a wall. Also, two of their last three losses have come by five or less points.
The Pick: Virginia Tech (+5)
No. 4 TCU (-28) at Kansas
Kansas is riding high and wrecking goalposts after beating Iowa State last weekend, and now it gets TCU in a juicy letdown spot. The Horned Frogs should (will) win with ease, but let's get weird and gobble up the points. Why not? Interim head coach Clint Bowen has felt a little bit like this year's Ed Orgeron.
The Pick: Kansas (+28)
Washington at No. 14 Arizona (-9)
Arizona continues to impress, and Washington continues to dismay. As recently as last week, I would have been all over the Huskies and the points. But now? Man, that offense is just so bad.
The Pick: Arizona (-9)
Northwestern at No. 18 Notre Dame (-17.5)
Notre Dame gave up 55 points at Arizona State last week, but its defense actually played pretty well. Five Everett Golson turnovers were the issue. Golson imploding again is always a possibility, but it's not what one would call a likelihood. And Northwestern's offense definitely won't score enough to stay with the Irish in South Bend.
The Pick: Notre Dame (-17.5)
No. 6 Arizona State (-9) at Oregon State
The Sun Devils and Beavers are kicking off at 10:45 p.m. ET, which puts this game in the distinct realm of #Pac12AfterDark. It's going to come down to the final possession. It just is. So unless Arizona State scores a meaningless defensive touchdown, there's no way it covers.
The Pick: Oregon State (+9)
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
