Klay Thompson's Stardom Must Steer Golden State Warriors' Future
The Golden State Warriors staked their future on the hope that Klay Thompson could crash the NBA's elite ranks, thus allowing them to do the same.
The first part of that plan seems to be coming to fruition. The 24-year-old has exploded out of the gate, positioning himself to set career marks essentially across the board.
But it remains to be seen whether the Warriors can follow his lead. While Golden State appears to have opened its championship window, economic constraints could close it quickly—if medical red flags and turnover woes don't get to it first.
Granted, a title contender facing a treacherous obstacle course hardly qualifies as news. However, the Warriors' expensive, experienced core leaves their margin for error razor-thin.
If Golden State is to build a championship-banner-raising bunch now or in the coming seasons, it will need Thompson to further cement himself as a centerpiece.
Thompson's Towering Rise
Thompson had the type of offseason that wasn't going to be easily topped.
The Warriors thought enough of his potential to keep him out of a possible trade for perennial All-Star Kevin Love. Team USA tapped Thompson for its FIBA Basketball World Cup roster, then marveled as he became "really, as good a player as we've had," as coach Mike Krzyzewski told USA Today's Sam Amick.
Those developments, combined with the costly market rates established by the likes of Chandler Parsons (three years, $46 million) and Gordon Hayward (four years, $63 million), set the table for Thompson's prodigious payday. With hours left before the deadline to ink an extension, the 6'7" sniper put pen to paper on a four-year pact worth $69 million.
"I knew there was going to be a lot of money on the table, but I play this game because I really do love it," he told reporters. "It's a blessing to have the deal I got, and I'm going to do everything I can to go out there and prove I'm worth it."
Apparently, he took those words to heart. Less than 24 hours removed from autographing the contract, he blitzed the Los Angeles Lakers for a career-high 41 points, hitting 14-of-18 from the field and 5-of-7 from downtown.
Through six games—he missed one outing with a sprained hand—Thompson has already turned the 2014-15 campaign into something sweeter than his profile-building, salary-boosting summer.
His stat sheet shows dramatic improvements in both quality and quantity. His counting categories are up, and so is his efficiency. This is not the first time he has shown signs of growth, but his development has never produced numbers quite like these.
Everything is trending up, but more important than the direction of those figures is the way in which he has launched them into orbit.
For his first three NBA seasons, Thompson was a shooter. Yes, he was a historically prolific marksman, but most of his production was tied to defensive breakdowns and the creativity of the Warriors' playmakers. As long as opponents could deny him clean looks from the perimeter, they could limit his impact.
That's no longer the case. Thompson doesn't have to wait for someone to set him up; he can now create his own looks.
Entering this season, nearly 67 percent of his career two-point field goals came off assists. Now only 43.3 percent of those shots are being created by someone else.
He's also turning himself into a viable threat off the dribble. Exactly 33 percent of his field-goal attempts are coming within 10 feet of the basket. Over the last three years, that number had never been higher than 23.7.
"He's putting the ball on the floor, he's posting up," Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers said, per Sports Illustrated's Phil Taylor. "Klay has the whole package. It was a little easier a couple of years ago when you could just try to take away his shot. But now he's getting to the basket. ... He's just hard to guard."
When Thompson isn't finishing plays around the rim, he is using these drives to get to the charity stripe. His previous personal best for free-throw attempts per game was 2.3. He has almost tripled that average this season (6.5).
He is playing a bigger part in this offense than ever and doing a better job of maximizing his opportunities. He is putting up 0.476 points per touch, via NBA.com's player tracking data, which is easily the highest scoring rate of any regular rotation player. Only 10 others are averaging at least 0.400 points per touch.
He's even growing as a passer. Both his assists average (3.3) and percentage (17.1) would be career marks.
It's hard to tell how much of his statistics will hold up over time given the miniature sample size, but there are reasons to believe they could have some staying power.
"Given his age and the calculated shift in approach, there is no reason to think Thompson's performance is a small-sample mirage," wrote ESPN Insider Bradford Doolittle (subscription required).
The Warriors need Thompson's numbers to last. With a potential salary-cap crisis threatening to tear this group apart, they have to believe he can discover the consistency that has eluded him in the past.
Future Financial Concerns
Unless ownership finds a sudden willingness to foot a pricey luxury-tax bill, this roster could see a fairly dramatic shakeup sooner rather than later.
With Thompson's new deal, the Warriors have five eight-figure salaries on next season's books. Add in the $5.5 million owed to Shaun Livingston, and Golden State is slated to shell out nearly $72 million to six players alone: Thompson, Livingston, Stephen Curry, Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut and David Lee, per HoopsHype.com.
Notably absent from that group is uber-valuable forward Draymond Green. The 24-year-old glue guy will become a restricted free agent at season's end and should not have trouble finding major money on the open market.
Green recently signed with agent B.J. Armstrong of the powerful Wasserman Media Group. Green told Amick, "I feel like I wanted to go a little bit bigger," effectively squashing whatever hopes the Warriors may have had of keeping him at a discount.
As ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy speculated during a recent broadcast, via Matt Steinmetz, Green might be able to sniff out his own eight-figure salary:
Whatever the rate winds up being, it will not be cheap. And that's an issue, because the Warriors are already working on a tight budget, as San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami pointed out:
"If they want to keep their important pieces, the Warriors are looking at close to a $90 million payroll next season, and that’s over the luxury-tax threshold by any estimation, which the Warriors have never done. (The lux-tax threshold is $76.8 million this season.)
Essentially, the Warriors would almost certainly be going deep into luxury tax to re-sign Green, who hits restricted free agency next summer. That’s something the Warriors have to do, but every dollar they give Green would be punishing on the tax end.
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Unless, of course, Golden State can shed some salary before crossing that bridge. The issue then becomes identifying which players are expendable and which could bring back something of value.
This past February, Amick reported that rival executives were under the impression that Curry and Bogut were Golden State's only untouchables. It's hard to imagine that stance has changed on either player, though Thompson and Green may have been added to that list since.
The Dubs could field offers for the 22-year-old Harrison Barnes, but moving his rookie contract wouldn't do much to clean up their books. Still, he could be used as a sweetener since Thompson and Green are more than capable of filling the two forward spots.
Lee seems like the obvious candidate to put out on the trade market. Of all their pricey players, he is the oldest (31) and most expensive ($15,012,000 this season, $15,493,680 next season). While his passing fits nicely into coach Steve Kerr's movement-based scheme, Lee's inability to stretch the floor as a shooter clogs up the middle for drivers and off-ball cutters.
But with more teams looking to spread out their offensive attack, Lee's value is not exactly at an all-time high. He has also been battling the injury imp—most recently a strained hamstring—so the Warriors could be forced to sell at a painfully low price.
The return simply may not justify the cost. If Lee buys into a bench role, he could still have a value as a steady source of scoring and rebounding for the second time.
With Thompson's rise as a two-way force on the wing, the Warriors may have to explore trade options for Iguodala. He might be the easiest to replace with what they already have, and cutting his contract (which runs through 2016-17) could allow the franchise to keep its young pieces around.
"It's unlikely that the team carries Iguodala, Barnes and Draymond Green for more than another season, if that," wrote ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "Diminishing play for Iguodala could lead to a new team for the 30-year-old utility man."
The Warriors already gave Iguodala's starting spot to Barnes, but they could decide they want an even longer look at the former top prospect. Having already paid Thompson and perhaps preparing to do the same with Green, the front office might want a better grasp on Barnes' value before he's eligible for an extension next summer.
Golden State has the ingredients of a championship contender, but they come with a steep price. How the Warriors navigate their economic future and how Thompson lives up to his lofty new deal will determine whether something significant comes out of these investments.
Getting From Good to Great
The Warriors have the chance to be special, but consecutive losses show this team is still chasing that goal. And given the aforementioned sacrifices this team may have to make, raising its ceiling won't be easy.
This is not a young roster. Thompson, Green and Barnes are the only rotation pieces under the age of 25. Come next summer, that will no longer apply to Thompson or Green.
Golden State has tried to balance youth with proven veterans. There is a logic behind that strategy: The Warriors have theoretically protected themselves against the growing pains of a young roster but maintained enough youth to limit the effects of Father Time.
The blueprint makes a lot of sense—if this is a championship roster. If not, it's going to be hard to improve it internally or otherwise.
It's not a bad problem to have. The Warriors should be a playoff force this year. And if Thompson's extension convinces Curry to stick around (his contract expires in 2017), the NBA's best backcourt should keep this franchise relevant for the foreseeable future.
However, there is a major difference between being relevant and celebrating a world title. The Warriors have done enough for the former, but Thompson's continued development could be the key to unlocking the latter.
The Warriors know what to expect from their veterans, provided they stay healthy. And Curry, an All-Star starter last season, is running out of room to grow. Even Green has already found his niche as a complementary offensive weapon and dominant defender.
Thompson is one of the few still scratching at the surface. More importantly, the Warriors have already gambled on his ability to break through.
So far, it seems like a shrewd investment. Still, the franchise needs him prove this production is not only sustainable but also something on which to keep building so both can reach this sport's summit together.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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