Kramer's College Football Playoff Notebook: Committee Turning on Florida State?
A team that has not lost a football game since November 2012—almost two full-calendar years—was leapfrogged by a program with one loss on Tuesday night.
Florida State, still without a blemish to speak of in 2014, at 9-0, is no longer the nation’s No. 2 team, according to the updated College Football Playoff Top 25. That honor belongs to Oregon (9-1), which has done enough since its Oct. 2 home loss to Arizona to warrant movement upward, at least according to the committee.
When one looks at the bigger picture, it becomes apparent the rise is significant. This situation never would have occurred if the BCS computers were still running the show. The percentage gap between Florida State and Oregon might have closed some, although that would have been the extent of it. We would have gone about our business to the next weekend, waiting for an actual loss to truly shake up the pecking order.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The fact that the committee is willing to make these decisions is a story. But for Florida State—and Oregon, for that matter—the headline-generating shakeup carries very little significance. The colors of the jerseys in their semifinal matchup would have changed because the home team would've swapped at the neutral-site game; that’s about it.
The No. 2 and No. 3 teams will still play one another in the postseason. If this switch came during the last week of the season, no one would have batted an eye. The fact that the selection committee decided to make the change now—a few days after the Seminoles won in relatively common fashion against Virginia—simply means it's seeing exactly what you’ve seen. Florida State doesn't look impressive.
Still, with that considered, nothing has changed logistically for the Noles.
Regardless of the committee’s public demotion, this is far more sizzle than steak. If the Seminoles win out, they’re in the playoff. That’s the reality, and it was always a reality. Everything else at this point is for entertainment purposes only.
And Florida State fans: Are you not entertained?
Enraged, maybe? OK; let's call it enraged.
Here are some other observations from the selection committee's latest rankings.
The Selection Committee Sends Alabama a Message
This is a convenient week to leave Alabama on the cusp of cracking the playoff, and any attempt to draw something from the Tide’s current No. 5 ranking is a wasted exercise.
If Alabama beats No. 1 Mississippi State next week, it will be in the playoff. Although the committee says it is not in the business of sending messages to teams or fanbases outside the rankings themselves—something committee chairman Jeff Long reiterated on Tuesday night, per ESPN College Football—the message is clear as day:
Win and you're in.
""We don't think it is our job to send messages. We believe our rankings will send messages." - @jefflongUA #CFP25 pic.twitter.com/TpyoqqD0dh
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) November 12, 2014"
Let’s take this one a step further. Given the way the committee reacted this week with an unbeaten Florida State team, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Alabama could be the No. 1 seed by the time next Tuesday hits. Much of this depends on how the teams in front of Alabama play in Week 12, although the scenario is very much a possibility.
Placement in the playoff is far less important than the obstacle ahead. Mississippi State, the current No. 1 and one of the few teams with minimal debate attached, will be up for the challenge.
Go Out and Play Somebody
“I beat you” is a pretty convincing statement and a simple way to decide an argument. In college football, however, this recess logic now comes with a fair amount of fine print, depending on the entirety of the picture.
By putting Baylor at No. 7—three spots below TCU, a team it beat in spectacular comeback fashion—the selection committee has made it clear that weak out-of-conference schedules will be penalized, and as a result, the "rules" will begin to bend. ESPN's Brett McMurphy provided Long's specific comments on "ranking TCU over Baylor":
"Jeff Long on ranking TCU over Baylor: “Head to head comes into play when all else is equal"
— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) November 12, 2014"
The Horned Frogs are being rewarded for beating No. 25 Minnesota with the No. 4 position. With the Gophers set to take on Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin—three teams ranked in the Top 25 this week—the possibility to drop a game (or three) is there. As a result, late Minnesota struggles could change this discussion and perceptions of teams in another conference entirely.
Although Baylor’s pre-Big 12 games won’t suddenly become more inviting, the overall resume might begin to look a bit better compared to the team it beat as it closes out the season and distances itself from the start. Still, even with the Bears having ample time to close the gap, the committee has made it clear that cupcake schedules early on could result in an uphill climb late.
One Bad Loss Won’t Kill You, Just Ask Ohio State
Although Ohio State still feels like an unlikely playoff pick, the Buckeyes have to be thrilled about being No. 8 in the latest rankings. Could their spot be better? Of course it could, and you could make the argument that Ohio State is playing better than teams above it right now.
But when you lose to a squad such as Virginia Tech at home—regardless of timing—you lose ground in this discussion. The fact the selection committee is still willing to look beyond this loss and consider the development of certain players along the way, however, is encouraging for Ohio State and any other rapidly developing program moving forward.
Teams change, players develop and seasons flip without warning.
Taking this development into consideration while also handicapping the entire picture will be one of the more difficult tasks the committee has to deal with. And although Ohio State is still alive, it’ll be fascinating to see just where the ceiling is as crunch time approaches.
Group of Five Shut Out…Again
I might as well just copy and paste this section until further notice.
Marshall and Colorado State shut off their televisions once teams ranked No. 25 through No. 21 were revealed. They might as well have caught up on Homeland rather than wait around for good news that never came, because they weren’t going to hear their names called after that.
What exactly is it going to take for a team outside of the power five to get a little love?
Marshall will continue to beat teams by an absurd margin—as it did to Southern Miss last week, 63-17. Will beating Rice by three touchdowns in Week 12 suddenly do the trick? You would think it would have to at some point, although given the way these non-power programs have been graded, it’s not going to be easy for one of these group-of-five teams to make a splash.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
