College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Week 12 NCAA Championship Predictions
One game looms large following the Week 12 release of the 2014 College Football Playoff rankings.
For the third time in as many inaugural editions, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are at the top of the standings. However, they will encounter their biggest test of the year in Tuscaloosa this Saturday when they take on Alabama.
Coach Nick Saban's Crimson Tide are just outside the Top Four and would undoubtedly break their way back into the picture with a victory over their undefeated SEC adversary.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
What follows are predictions as to how the Top Four order will look in the next set of rankings preceded by the latest release from Tuesday evening.
Projected Top Four
1. Florida State
The reigning national champions can capitalize on an idle Oregon and ascend to the top of the college football hierarchy with a rivalry win at Miami on Saturday.
That may be easier said than done because Florida State hasn't exactly been rolling to an undefeated record in dominant fashion. Part of the issue has been quarterback Jameis Winston's sudden penchant for turning the ball over.
Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel noted how oddsmakers aren't giving the Seminoles much respect as they prepare for the Hurricanes:
Winston discussed how he needs to clean up his ball security, as he's thrown five interceptions over his past two starts.
"Make smarter decisions, stop always looking for the big play," said Winston, per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "I stressed about checking the ball down and making smart decisions, and I've got to go back to that. I can't be careless with the ball."
Two home games remain for Florida State once it faces Miami, which shouldn't be easy thanks to the Hurricanes' balanced offense. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya continues to improve with weapons at his disposal while the ever-electric Duke Johnson should give the Seminoles problems out of the backfield.
Whenever adversity has struck, particularly in the past two contests, Winston and his teammates have stepped up and found a way to win.
That should be the case on Saturday, and if Mississippi State is knocked off at home, FSU will be in a familiar No. 1 perch.
2. Alabama
The Crimson Tide are starting to roll. Since the loss to Ole Miss in Oxford, Alabama has ripped off four straight SEC wins. That 59-0 thrashing of Texas A&M looks even better after the Aggies upset prior No. 3 Auburn this past weekend.
Dual-threat QBs have given the Tide problems in the recent past (see: Johnny Manziel), but Alabama's run defense is ranked third in the country (h/t NCAA.com).
The formidable front seven should do all it can to mitigate Bulldogs running back Josh Robinson's presence, forcing Dak Prescott to beat the secondary through the air.
A stout secondary headlined by star safety Landon Collins will make life difficult for Prescott, who has room for polish as a passer. Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland hinted at that in recent comments.
"He's physical, he can run, he'll beat you with his arm a little bit, and he's very smart," said Ragland of Prescott, per ESPN.com's Alex Scarborough. "If you're not doing the right things to disguise and confuse him, he'll beat you."
But as LSU head coach Les Miles stated following his team's 20-13 overtime loss to Alabama at home, disguising is precisely what the Tide excel at (via NOLA.com's Ron Higgins):
Fifth-year senior Blake Sims has finally gotten his shot to take the reins of the Crimson Tide offense this year. After seeing his championship dreams almost slip away against Ole Miss, Sims has responded—with the help of a monster running back tandem in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry.
The physicality of Alabama's offensive line combined with Sims' superior decision-making will lift the Tide to a monumental triumph at Bryant-Denny Stadium and into the Top Four—where they arguably belong right now.
3. Oregon
Presuming the Tide pull off a win at home over Mississippi State, Oregon's bye week will cause the Ducks to slip to third in the rankings.
A loss at home to Arizona, compared to Alabama's lone defeat at Ole Miss, ought to loom large when the selection committee reexamines Oregon's resume. Skip Bayless of ESPN feels that should already be the case:
Although the Ducks defense is improving, QB Marcus Mariota will be the driving force behind the success Oregon has. Fox Sports' Joel Klatt weighed in after the dynamic signal-caller led the Ducks to a 51-27 victory over Utah:
Mariota accounted for 353 total yards and five touchdowns, fortifying his Heisman Trophy campaign. It's not as though falling from second to third in the rankings has much of a devastating impact because in the College Football Playoff, the second and third seeds play each other anyway.
Bleacher Report's Michael Felder pointed this out in the aftermath of Tuesday's rankings:
With only two regular-season games remaining against unranked opponents, Oregon should be able to run the table and make it into the Pac-12 title game. Arizona State and UCLA loom as possible opponents for that championship showdown, so that's when the Ducks will show their true colors.
But if Alabama should fall to Mississippi State, there's at least an outside chance Oregon could rise to No. 1 should the Seminoles scratch out another ugly win.
4. TCU
Controversy will continue to swirl about TCU, the newest addition to the Top Four as of Tuesday.
ESPN's Robert Flores noted how the Horned Frogs' loss at Baylor is impacting their nationwide perception:
All that matters is what the committee thinks, and if the Bears are able to run the table and win the Big 12, there shouldn't be much of a debate. Then again, that's the beauty of the College Football Playoff and the previous BCS—the polarizing, weekly arguments about the top teams.
TCU came to play in its marquee matchup with previously seventh-ranked Kansas State, putting forth a complete effort in a 41-20 victory. Trevone Boykin is the catalyst for a Horned Frogs offense that averages 47.2 points per contest—and put up 58 in the lone loss of the season.
It will be on Boykin to orchestrate another sensational performance on the road against Kansas this weekend to keep his team's standing intact. The good news is that the Jayhawks are 90th in scoring defense and average just 18.2 points themselves.
One of the pitfalls of having weekly rankings, where strength of schedule is a paramount pillar in the committee's decisions, is that teams like TCU can win out and lose ground. This scenario could unfold and have the Horned Frogs on the outside of the final playoff picture barring an upset in front of them.
The statement win over the Wildcats may not be enough in the end. All TCU can do is focus on its final three games and hope that its style points merit a Top Four bid. But with all the upsets that tend to happen in college football, anything is possible amid the higher-stakes football still to come.
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