Patriots vs. Colts: Complete Week 11 Preview for New England
Under Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots have always emphasized peaking after Thanksgiving. While the 2014 squad has yet to reach that line of demarcation, it is clear that the arrow is pointing up on the Pats after five consecutive wins.
However, despite a consensus as one of the league's elite teams, even the slightest slip-up could have the Patriots playing on Wild Card Weekend for the first time since 2009. Fresh off the bye, Week 11's showdown against the 6-3 Indianapolis Colts may be the Pats' most important game left this season in terms of implications for a potential first-round bye.
Though Andrew Luck has imploded against New England in two career meetings, it's clear that the third-year quarterback has taken a decisive step forward in 2014. Thus, after containing Peyton Manning and the uber-efficient, rhythmic Denver Broncos offense, the Pats are facing a totally different animal in Indy's versatility.
Tom Brady and Luck may not develop a long-term rivalry due to age difference, but based on the mismatches each offense can engineer, seeing a shootout develop at Lucas Oil Stadium would hardly be shocking. For the Patriots perspective on this matchup, read on for a full analysis of the most critical players and factors in a game with significant postseason consequences.
Patriots Week 9 Recap
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With a Week 10 bye, the Patriots have had two weeks to revel in their best win of the season. New England's 43-21 romp over the Denver Broncos not only dismissed whatever lingering doubts remained, but also launched them into consideration as the league's best team.
While Peyton Manning piled up plenty of yards through the air, the Patriots defense was extremely impressive in limiting the big plays and winning critical situations, holding the Broncos to 3-for-11 on third-down conversions and 0-for-4 on fourth down. Relying on press coverage and a refreshing variation of blitzes, Bill Belichick concocted his most innovative defensive scheme this season in stifling Denver's irrepressible offense.
Belichick will need to pull a similar trick against Andrew Luck and the Colts this week, who rank fourth in yards per play while running a whopping 74 plays per game, per TeamRankings.com. Indy's strength comes through its versatility, as they can exploit the deep half with T.Y. Hilton, the intermediate areas with Reggie Wayne and the seams with Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.
Whereas New England was able to body up against Denver's physical mismatches, the Colts can sidestep that problem by featuring a different mode of attack from play to play.
Offensively, the Pats continued to roll through the air, as Tom Brady's five-game hot streak figures to continue against a Colts defense that ranks as the worst and fourth-worst defense in covering running backs and tight ends, respectively, based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.
Rob Gronkowski and Shane Vereen exploited Denver's safeties and linebackers in combining for 14 catches, 143 yards and two touchdowns through the air. Even on the road, it would hardly be surprising to see them put up similar numbers.
News and Notes
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Two-Back Sets Keying Offensive Turnaround?
During New England's offensive resurgence over the past five weeks, many have credited the offense's increased usage of two-tight end sets as the catalyst for that improvement. However, as Dan Riccio of ESPN Stats & Info notes, it's actually James Develin and the two-running back sets that have borne the greatest results:
"Of 144 plays run from the setup, the Patriots have run the ball on 84 and used play-action on another 30. That means they have run the ball a fairly balanced 58 percent of the time but have run or sold the run on 79 percent of such formations. That makes it difficult for opponents to diagnose the play call.
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Riccio also notes that the Pats' success rate on play-action passes is a league-leading 77 percent over the past five weeks, an indication of how opposing linebackers have been totally scrambled in their play-call recognition. Develin is more of an H-back who lines up as both a traditional fullback and blocking tight end, but regardless, his presence essentially acts as a sixth offensive lineman.
This week, expect plenty of Develin, Tim Wright and Michael Hoomanawanui to trap Indy in their base defense. New England has focused on exploiting base personnel through the air, and by blending run-heavy blocking personnel with the ultimate two-way weapon in Rob Gronkowski, the Pats should be able to exploit some of the Colts' lead-footed linebackers.
Front Seven Versatility on Display
One of the most exciting aspects of New England's win over Denver two weeks ago was the unexpected versatility Bill Belichick conjured out of his front seven. Though injuries have depleted an already thin unit, NESN's Doug Kyed highlights how creative usage of the edge-rushers can fluster even the most experienced quarterbacks:
"The Patriots used virtually every combination of Ninkovich, Ayers, Hightower and Collins rushing and covering, while also mixing in blitzes and three-man man rushes. They used all of these different schemes while set in the same alignment. Neither Manning nor his offensive line had any idea where the pressure was coming from nor who would be dropping back in coverage."
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the aforementioned quartet generated 14 quarterback hurries on Manning. For a defense that has long relied on standard four-man rushes and zone coverage behind, it has been refreshing to see more varied blitz and stunt concepts paired with the increased usage of press-man coverage.
Quite simply, Belichick now has the tools to construct a multifaceted and destructive defense. Luck's mobility and impeccable awareness present a whole different challenge than Manning, but with the bye week to plan, expect more front-seven wrinkles to complement the secondary.
Revis in for the Long Haul?
With a brutal month-long stretch ahead, no one is really thinking draft or free agency for the Patriots. Darrelle Revis might be the exception to that rule, though, and The Boston Globe's Ben Volin recently speculated in his weekly mailbag that Revis could extend his stay in Foxborough beyond 2014:
"I do think Revis will be back. Even though Revis is having an excellent season, I think he’s going to have a tough time cashing in on a mega deal in free agency, mostly because he’ll be a 30-year-old cornerback with an ACL injury on his resume. I would expect the Patriots to decline the $12 million option in his contract prior to the end of the league year in March, then work on a new 2- or 3-year deal worth $20-25 million guaranteed to keep him in the fold...You don’t let Revis walk away unless you have a good Plan B, and I don’t think there is a good Plan B out there in free agency or the draft.
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Considering the regression of young cornerbacks Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan this year, the Pats do not really have a viable backup plan in the event that Revis departs. The upcoming free-agent cornerback crop includes plenty of established vets like Tramon Williams, Antonio Cromartie and Brandon Flowers, but no game-changers in their prime like Revis.
Quite simply, the Pats have been a totally different defense schematically since Aqib Talib arrived in a midseason trade in 2012, a pattern that Revis' signing perpetuated into 2014. Revis is a savvy business-first individual, but if the Patriots continue winning, it would not be hard to envision Revis giving New England some leeway to retain a shot at playing for championships every season.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Out |
| Dominique Easley | DT/DE | Questionable |
| Nate Ebner | S | Questionable |
| Cameron Fleming | OT/OG | Questionable |
| Matthew Slater | ST | Probable |
| Ryan Wendell | RG/C | Questionable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
As the Pats' overall roster continues to heal following a couple rough weeks, defensive front seven depth remains the pressing concern. Though Dominique Easley returned to practice on Thursday, reports that he suffered a knee injury last week must raise alarms. The first-rounder entered the league with red flags about his health after two torn ACLs in college, and thus far, Easley has not rewarded the Pats' faith with production.
The rest of the injury news is much rosier, however. Even Chandler Jones, who will remain out for the foreseeable future, appears as though he will be ready for a playoff run.
Quite simply, there is very little to discuss on the injury front for the Pats, always good news. That will not remain the case forever, a warning that applied early in the season as well, but it is extremely fortuitous that New England will enter the teeth of its schedule at full strength.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Darrelle Revis vs. T.Y. Hilton
Much like the Broncos two weeks ago, the Colts' abundance of weapons may prevent the Pats from assigning Revis to shadow one particular player. However, given Hilton's ability to line up at any alignment, expect these two to have plenty of encounters on Sunday night.
The third-year receiver has taken a huge leap forward in 2014, accruing 56 catches for 937 yards, good for a 16.7 yards-per-catch mark that ranks sixth in the league. Hilton has caught nine of 17 targets of 20 or more yards, a 52.9 percent deep catch rate that ranks fourth among qualified receivers.
The Pats utilized Aqib Talib to shadow Hilton in last year's playoff meeting, holding him to just four catches. But with Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen in the lineup this year, New England is more likely to use bracket coverage to blanket Hilton's ability to threaten the deep half. Indeed, some have speculated that the Pats could employ more three-safety "big nickel" personnel to provide more range on the back end.
When Revis and Hilton do match up, watch the release at the line of scrimmage. Revis must stifle Hilton's release to avoid being stacked in trail position, which could leave Hilton open deep. New England has been excellent in preventing big pass plays this season, but given his progression and fit within Indy's system, Hilton presents arguably their toughest challenge of the season.
Brandon Browner and Patrick Chung vs. Dwayne Allen
Though the Colts' primary weapons are on the perimeter, Indy's heavy utilization of 12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) can present mismatches in the red zone. The Colts do not have any mismatch on the level of Rob Gronkowski, but in third-year tight end Dwayne Allen, Indy has unearthed one of the league's most versatile young weapons.
After missing all but one game last year with a torn ACL, Allen has appeared stronger than ever in posting 26 catches for 374 and seven touchdowns. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Allen has caught six of eight red-zone targets this season, turning those receptions into four touchdowns.
At 6'3" and 265 pounds, Allen presents a similar physical challenge as the 6'5", 250-pound Julius Thomas did two weeks ago. Thus, look for Brandon Browner and Patrick Chung to once again draw the primary assignments on Allen, as the tandem combined to limit Thomas to just two catches for 33 yards.
It will be interesting to see if the Pats decide to dial back their blitz frequency and keep Luck in the pocket. Whereas New England clearly sought to speed up the immobile Manning and allow their defensive backs to drive on the ball, Luck's mobility could force the secondary to defend for longer periods of time.
Neither Browner nor Chung possess plus speed, as both prefer to win at the point of contact. Thus, though Thomas is the starrier name, defending Allen in this context could represent the stiffer challenge.
Julian Edelman vs. Greg Toler
Despite an inconsistent pass rush due to Robert Mathis' season-ending Achilles injury, the Colts pass defense has been surprisingly solid this season. That unexpected development is a testament to Indy's secondary, where Vontae Davis and Mike Adams have outperformed expectations in 2014.
Davis and Greg Toler typically stick to one side of the field, and given the alignment tendencies of New England's receivers, Edelman will most likely draw Toler on the majority of snaps. This is the more favorable matchup, as Toler ranks 50th among 72 cornerbacks in terms of receptions conceded on a per-snap basis.
The last month has been particularly tough for Toler, who has conceded 20 catches on 32 targets for 316 yards and three touchdowns. With Brandon LaFell likely facing a difficult matchup in Davis, expect Edelman to receive a steady dose of targets as Brady's go-to option between the 20s.
X-Factor: Jonas Gray
The Patriots offense should have some favorable matchups through the air, but the key to New England's offensive resurgence has been a renewed commitment to the ground game. The Pats are not necessarily running the ball more, but by committing to a more consistent ground game on the early downs, Josh McDaniels has made the play-action passing game much deadlier.
New power back Jonas Gray had one excellent game against the Chicago Bears sandwiched in between a pair of clunkers in Weeks 7 and 9. The Pats offensive line should hold the advantage at the line of scrimmage this week, however, as the Colts run defense ranks 16th in FO's adjusted line yards metric.
Gray appears quite dependent on his blocking, as he has forced just four missed tackles over 32 carries. However, the bruising third-year back can be difficult to take down if his line carries him past the first level, as his 2.13 yards after contact per attempt is the highest mark on the team.
New England has gotten away with subpar rushing production multiple times this season, but in a hostile environment against a similarly high-powered offense, balance will be much more essential this week.
Prediction
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In spite of the roll the Patriots are on, the Colts possess enough firepower to crack New England's steady defense. Thus, although Tom Brady and Co. figure to experience plenty of success, Luck has the horses (no pun intended) to keep pace.
This looks like a classic Pats-Colts showdown from the mid-2000s, which were typically low-possession games due to how long each offense was able to hold the ball. It is difficult to conceive of a method through which the defense can consistently tie down the opposing offense, especially if the quarterbacks take care of the ball.
Ultimately, the game's location may make a greater difference than one would imagine. Over four road games this year, the Pats have averaged just a shade over 5.0 yards per play, a mark that ranks 21st in the league, per Pro-Football-Reference. That's partially skewed data, since three of New England's four road games came in the horrid first month, but it's no secret that the Pats are much tougher in Foxborough.
With both offenses likely to move the ball, the outcome will boil down to performance in critical 50-50 situations like third down and in the red zone. This game is truly a coin flip, but at home, Luck and the Colts receive the tiniest benefit of the doubt.
Prediction: Patriots 33, Colts 34
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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