7 Remaining SEC Games That Will Determine the College Football Playoff Picture
With three weeks left in the regular season, the list of SEC contenders for the inaugural College Football Playoff has dwindled down to two—No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 4 Alabama.
If the Bulldogs—seven-point underdogs according to Odds Shark—go on the road and upset the Crimson Tide, it will put head coach Dan Mullen's crew in position to clinch the SEC West with one win in their final two games—vs. Vanderbilt and at Ole Miss.
If Saban's crew protects its house, the only thing standing in the way between the Crimson Tide and another SEC West title is the Iron Bowl on Nov. 29.
Despite there being only two true contenders left, there are still plenty of games involving SEC teams left that could shape the College Football Playoff picture. Our picks for the most important games left are in this slideshow.
Nov. 15: Mississippi State at Alabama
1 of 7
The biggest game in a generation for No. 1 Mississippi State is nothing more than a normal November game for No. 4 Alabama.
The Bulldogs will roll into Tuscaloosa with a chance to put a stranglehold on the SEC West title race, while the Crimson Tide will need a win to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
"It’s a big-time game this week," Bulldog head coach Dan Mullen said in postgame press conference after the UT-Martin win. "This is what you play for. We’re in the middle of November, competing for first place in the SEC West, which is what it’s all about. That’s what you come here for. That’s what we want our program to be like."
The ramifications for this one will be massive. A Mississippi State win all but assures a spot in the SEC Championship Game and, even if it loses the Egg Bowl, a one-loss regular season. (Yes, I'm assuming the Bulldogs can get by Vanderbilt.) That'll play well in the eyes of the selection committee.
An Alabama win, however, will further the ongoing cannibalization of the SEC West and could make selection Sunday very interesting around the south.
Nov. 15: Auburn at Georgia
2 of 7
The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry doesn't carry a ton of playoff ramifications, but it does carry plenty of SEC Championship Game ramifications for both teams. So, as a result, we'll call it a true "elimination game."
If No. 9 Auburn wins, it keeps hopes alive for an SEC West title. Sound crazy? It's not that crazy.
"AU would be in. RT SECstats: 4 way tie IS STILL POSSIBLE. Tiebreaker: Combined H2H among the tied teams. #Chaos pic.twitter.com/8QC9OGQZuO
— Barrett Sallee (@BarrettSallee) November 10, 2014"
In that scenario, Auburn and Ole Miss would both be 2-1 among the tied teams, while Alabama and Mississippi State would be 1-2. Auburn would go to Atlanta by virtue of its win over the Rebels. A win in Atlanta would still place the Tigers in the "long shot" category, but don't forget that dominoes fell in the Tigers' favor last year on Championship Saturday.
For Georgia, it's the same situation. The Bulldogs need to win their SEC finale against Auburn on Saturday and hope Missouri loses one game along the way. If they get to Atlanta, a win over Auburn and then a win over whoever represents the West would be a strong way to close the season.
That probably wouldn't be enough to get into the playoff, but there's still some life in Athens.
Nov. 22: Missouri at Tennessee
3 of 7
Wait, what?
Missouri and Tennessee don't have playoff hopes, are both unranked and have been remarkably inconsistent this year.
That's all true.
If there's a two-loss SEC West team in the SEC Championship Game in search of style points, the last thing it wants to see is unranked Missouri in the SEC Championship Game.
The reason has nothing to do with Missouri's strength or weaknesses, though. It has everything to do with Indiana. The Tigers lost to the Hoosiers at home on Sept. 20, and if Missouri upsets the SEC West champ in Atlanta, that would eliminate the West contender. Even if the SEC West team wins ugly, style points would come into play against other teams around the country.
The transitive property is overrated in college football discussions, but it could factor into the committee's decision-making.
The Tennessee game is one Missouri must lose for Florida to have a chance, and it needs to lose at least once for Georgia to have a chance if the Bulldogs get by Auburn.
Ideally, any SEC West team in search of a strength-of-schedule boost should want to see 16th-ranked Georgia in Atlanta. It'd settle for unranked Florida (especially if Florida gets hot and gives Florida State a game). It shouldn't want unranked Missouri.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Nov. 29: Florida at Florida State
4 of 7
OK, so technically Florida vs. Florida State isn't a true SEC game, but it does involve an SEC team that will likely be looking to play spoiler.
Florida State has a hurdle to clear this weekend at Miami, but unless there's an upset along the way, head coach Jimbo Fisher's crew will likely host Florida on rivalry weekend unblemished and ranked either No. 1 or No. 2.
Standing in their way is a Florida defense that ranks 18th in the nation in yards per game (334) and 23rd in yards per play (4.85). Not the easiest task for a Florida State offense that has struggled in pass protection at times, and Vernon Hargreaves III and the rest of the Gator secondary will challenge 'Noles quarterback Jameis Winston.
A Florida upset of Florida State on the final weekend of the regular season could open the door for Ohio State or a second SEC team to join the College Football Playoff discussion.
Nov. 29: Mississippi State at Ole Miss
5 of 7
Ole Miss needs all kinds of chaos to ensue to get into the SEC Championship Game, so even if the Rebels finish with two losses, it's unlikely that they'll even have a division championship to show off to the selection committee.
Mississippi State, on the other hand, could have everything on the line when it travels to Oxford during rivalry weekend. Even if it loses to Alabama, a one-loss Mississippi State team could still earn some consideration from the selection committee, especially if things get crazy down the stretch.
If the Bulldogs beat Alabama, it would create one of the biggest Egg Bowls of all time. Ole Miss would have the opportunity to spoil Mississippi's State's perfect season as the regular season comes to a close, send the Bulldogs to Atlanta (yes, I'm assuming Mississippi State beats Vanderbilt) on a sour note and send the entire college football world into chaos.
Nov. 29: Auburn at Alabama
6 of 7
After Chris Davis took a missed field goal 109 yards for a touchdown as time expired last year and ran into college football history, the 2014 Iron Bowl already had all the makings of being "can't-miss television."
It also could serve as a must-win game for one or both programs in the race for the playoff.
It Alabama beats Mississippi State this weekend, it would still be fighting for the SEC West title on rivalry weekend. If they lose to Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide would need to beat Auburn to finish at 10-2 and retain any hope of making the playoff as long as mass chaos ensues around the country.
For Auburn, the same rules apply—although, as mentioned in the Auburn-Georgia slide, there still could be West title hopes hanging in the balance for the Tigers.
In the end, though, state bragging rights take precedence in the Iron Bowl. There might be playoff hopes, too, but that state title means everything for those 60 minutes.
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game
7 of 7
In 2012 and 2013, the SEC Championship Game served as a de facto national semifinal in the age of the BCS. Now that we're in the College Football Playoff era, it could carry huge postseason ramifications in 2014 as well.
Most likely for the SEC West participant.
Unless the SEC West doomsday scenario mentioned in the Auburn-Georgia slide happens, the winner of the West will walk into the Georgia Dome knowing that, with a win, they'll land in the inaugural four-team bracket.
For the East participant, more likely than not, it will be serving as the "spoiler" for teams on the outside looking in heading into Championship Saturday. That means whoever represents the East will let it all hang out against a team that has everything on the line.
Get your popcorn ready.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a co-host of the CFB Hangover on Bleacher Report Radio (Sundays, 9-11 a.m. ET) on Sirius 93, XM 208.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are courtesy of CFBStats.com and all recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
