Florida State vs. Miami: Complete Game Preview
The Miami Hurricanes and No. 2 Florida State Seminoles are preparing for the 59th meeting between the programs, which will take place on Saturday, Nov. 15 at Sun Life Stadium.
Al Golden's Miami (6-3, 3-2 ACC) team dominated its previous two outings, but FSU provides the biggest test of the season.
Florida State (9-0, 6-0) recently fought through a couple of scares to remain undefeated, hoping for a return trip to the national championship game. The Noles have won the last four matchups.
As of this writing, per OddsShark, Florida State is favored by 2.5 points. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET and will be televised on ABC.
Florida State Keys to Victory
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Win the Points After Turnover Battle
Florida State has been relatively turnover-prone this year, committing 19 turnovers—which ranks 104th nationally. Conversely, the Noles have 18 takeways, a respectable mark at No. 30 in the FBS.
But it's what happens after those giveaways that decides the game.
Overall, the Seminoles have held their opponents to either zero or three points after a turnover 10 of 19 times, while scoring a touchdown or sealing a victory after 13 of 18 takeaways.
Miami has dropped all three games to FBS opponents when it committed more turnovers. Florida State's offense must capitalize on that trend by capitalizing on gifted opportunities, and the defense needs to continue limiting the consequent damage.
Dominate the Trenches on Both Sides
Speaking of the Noles defense, they currently allow the 25th fewest yards per rush in the nation. On the opposite side, five of the Hurricanes' six wins focused on the success of their running game.
Whoever controls the line of scrimmage when Miami's offense is on the field will hold a significant edge Saturday night.
When the situation is flipped, though, the Canes are even better against the run—No. 17—and Florida State has struggled to be consistent on the ground.
However, if the offensive line is dominating up front, Miami will be forced to bring more pressure. Jameis Winston is prolific against blitzes, which plays into the Seminoles' hands quite nicely.
If Florida State accomplishes both, this one won't be close.
Miami Keys to Victory
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Sustain a Running Game for 60 Minutes
Though this has been discussed previously, Miami's ability to utilize Duke Johnson and Co. for 60 minutes is paramount to springing an upset on the Noles.
For example, Louisville tallied 115 yards and two scores on 17 attempts during the first half and led 21-7 at the break. Then, the Cardinals recorded just 43 yards on 16 attempts and were outscored 35-10 in the latter frames.
During the Canes' last three outings, Johnson tallied 588 yards and six total touchdowns, while Joe Yearby and Gus Edwards alternated 100-yard outputs and scored a combined four times.
While Miami has game-breaking speed at receiver, that quickness is irrelevant without a rushing attack to complement it all night.
Don't Allow the Explosive Quarter, Win the 2nd Half
Just twice has the Hurricanes defense allowed more than 10 points in one quarter this season, ceding 14 to Nebraska and 21 to Cincinnati.
However, Florida State has ripped off 21-point frames against both Louisville and Virginia that proved to be the difference in the outcome.
What's more, the Seminoles have managed six 14-plus point quarters during the last four series meetings, including a 67-32 advantage in the second half.
Recent history and current success suggests Miami will remain close after 30 minutes, but gaining the upper hand during the final 30 is a critical part of earning the victory.
Florida State Players to Watch
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Jameis Winston, Quarterback
"I've got to stop turning the ball over," Winston said after the win over Virginia, per Kareem Copeland of the Associated Press.
Which quarterback will show up? The dominant freshman who tossed 40 touchdowns compared to only 10 picks, or the beleaguered sophomore who's already thrown 11 interceptions?
Winston is known for testing his luck by throwing into double or even triple coverage, and that arm confidence has started to bite him in 2014. The only two games in which he wasn't picked off were against FCS foe Citadel and ACC cellar-dweller Syracuse.
But this is a rivalry game and an excellent opportunity for Winston to reverse his regrettable season trend. An outstanding performance opposite Miami shouldn't be a surprise.
Then again, it wouldn't reflect his spotty year on the field.
Terrance Smith and Reggie Northrup, Linebackers
Florida State boasts a linebacker tandem among the nation's premier duos, those stars being Terrance Smith and Reggie Northrup.
Smith registered a team-high 10 tackles against the Canes last year and has racked up 66 stops in seven games, an FSU-leading average of 9.4 per appearance.
According to Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel, Northrup—who paces the Seminoles defense with 72 tackles—has dreams of knocking people out.
The juniors will be flying around, looking to contain Miami's star running back and force quarterback Brad Kaaya to throw.
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Miami Players to Watch
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The Outside Linebackers
Between Jermaine Grace, Thurston Armbrister and Raphael Kirby, Miami has a formidable group of outside linebackers.
They have recorded the third-, fourth- and fifth-most tackles, respectively, on the Hurricanes much-improved defense. Additionally, the trio has combined to record 13.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks and two interceptions, while forcing four fumbles and recovering two.
Opponents have only managed 3.8 rushes of 10 or more yards per game, a number that ranks 14th-best in the FBS and is a testament to their collective ability at the second level.
If Virginia can limit the Noles to 115 yards on the ground and 2.9 yards per attempt, Miami can, too. But the outside linebackers must remain a constant force in order to keep FSU's running backs under control.
Deon Bush, Safety
The Hurricanes employ a zone-heavy defense, which means safety Deon Bush will provide over-the-top help on vertical routes.
He was one of the fortunate handful to pick off the Florida State gunslinger last season, and the junior might just have a repeat performance Saturday evening.
Louisville's Gerod Holliman grabbed two interceptions, benefiting from Winston's aforementioned arm confidence.
Of course, Bush will also contribute in run support, an area that's helped him register the team's second-most tackles while knocking the ball loose four times.
What They're Saying
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Florida State
According to Sonnone, head coach Jimbo Fisher said the current defense was sometimes caught up in performing to the 2013 squad's standards—one that was completely dominant—but is starting to "play together."
Tim Linafelt of FSU's official athletics site notes Fisher said, as it pertains to interceptions, "No one is harder on Jameis than Jameis."
Miami
Following the dominant victory over North Carolina, per Christy Cabrera Chirinos of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, Johnson said that behind solid blocking, the Miami offense is clicking.
"I think as an offense, we're in a zone. We're hitting in every way we can, passing and rushing. Guys up front are doing a great job week in and week out providing holes and protection so Brad Kaaya and I can do what we do best.
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Recently, Johnson said he circled this matchup on the calendar because he sustained an injury during last season's meeting, one that ended his sophomore campaign.
From Chirinos: "Duke Johnson was asked today if he circled FSU game because he knows so many of the guys on the other side. 'I circled the date I got hurt.'"
Prediction
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The Noles thrashed the Canes in 2010, held off a desperate fourth-quarter comeback in 2011, controlled the second half of the 2012 matchup and outclassed Golden's team in 2013.
Saturday night will feature the most competitive 60-minute clash since Miami's thrilling goal-line stand during the 2009 meeting. But the result will change, too.
Florida State has dropped numerous games in the rivalry due to missed field goals, but Roberto Aguayo is capable of changing that. And he will.
Though Johnson and the Hurricanes offensive line carry "The U" to a slim lead at halftime, the Seminoles become a field goal too much when zeros light the scoreboard.
Prediction: Florida State 27, Miami 24
Note: Stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Bleacher Report college football writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
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