Making Sense of the Carnage of College Football's Elimination Saturday
It was billed as the Saturday of the college football season; a day where playoff resumes would blossom while others would be left in ruins.
While the sport does not always cooperate in terms of living up to such remarkable expectations and standards, it did in Week 11. Top 10 teams fell, playoff hopes were crushed, conferences were given newfound hope and others—looking in your direction, Alabama—saw their postseason lives flash before their eyes.
Although some felt that a four-team postseason would de-emphasize college football’s regular season, it has turned out to be the exact opposite. As a result, there were games played throughout various hours of the day Saturday in different parts of the country—from Tempe, Arizona, to Fort Worth, Texas, to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and beyond—where everything was on the line.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
November football is hard to beat.
And from Auburn, Alabama, where we didn’t expect a story, came the weekend’s biggest headline. The Tigers’ loss to Texas A&M creates a fascinating mess for the selection committee; it's one it’ll have only a few days to sort through.
As for everything we learned—and more importantly, what it means going forward—here are some observations from the elimination-packed weekend.
The Big 12 Had Itself a Weekend
It wasn’t just the fact that TCU and Baylor looked deadly in wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma, respectively, although let’s start there. The Horned Frogs' 41-20 win at home over Kansas State was eye-opening; it also further silenced those still questioning the validity of this team’s College Football Playoff resume.
For Baylor, the lone team to beat TCU, Week 11 provided a similar response. The Bears beat Oklahoma 48-14—making it look simple at times—and in doing so, they stated their playoff case.
Although the debate over TCU vs. Baylor will rage on—and how the Bears’ weak out-of-conference schedule stacks up to their outright win against the Frogs—one thing is certain: The conference is suddenly in superb playoff shape as we hit the homestretch.
The schedules are manageable, particularly for TCU, and the lack of a conference championship game suddenly doesn’t feel like the roadblock it did weeks ago.
Losses from Auburn and Michigan State were almost as important for the Big 12 as the conference wins, and as strange and far-fetched as it seems, the Big 12 is now the most likely candidate to get two teams from one conference into the playoff.
While that scenario is still incredibly unlikely, it’s also still possible. That’s what kind of Saturday it was.
Auburn Is out, Alabama Is in, and the SEC Seems Strangely Playoff-Vulnerable
Auburn’s 41-38 loss to Texas A&M served as the weekend’s primary shocker. The effects of this game, beyond the enormous hit to the Tigers, could be significant and far-reaching.
The talk of getting two SEC teams into the College Football Playoff suddenly feels like a distant memory. No, the perception of the conference and the SEC West hasn’t shifted all that much, but the losses have started to mount. And there are more to come.
Alabama nearly added another one to this list, and it looked all but doomed in its game against LSU. A late drive and an overtime touchdown gave the Crimson Tide a 20-13 win and, more importantly, kept their playoff hopes alive.
With Alabama and Mississippi State set to meet up next weekend, another SEC contender will suffer a setback. Looking past this game—regardless of the outcome—both teams still have challenging matchups to follow.
The idea that the SEC could somehow be left out of the postseason is not one that should be taken seriously, at least not right now. But given the way the results have started to unfold, this doomsday scenario is not out of the realm of possibility.
On Tuesday, however, two teams will again represent the SEC. It may last only five days, but the conference will stay in this position of power for at least one more Top 25 reveal.
You Should Probably Start Taking Arizona State Seriously
Arizona State controls its playoff destiny, which cannot possibly be stressed enough.
Following the Sun Devils’ 55-31 win over Notre Dame, which was a blowout, close for a while and then a blowout again, Todd Graham’s team has played its way into the playoff picture without anyone truly noticing.
That changed somewhat last week when the selection committee tabbed Arizona State at No. 9 in its latest Top 25. We took note of the Sun Devils, acknowledging their existence, but did we take them seriously? More importantly, are we doing so now?
With games against Oregon State, Washington State and Arizona remaining, Arizona State should win out in the regular season. If this scenario unfolds—and you should by no means take anything for granted—the Pac-12 championship matchup against Oregon would serve as a quarterfinal for the playoff.
This isn’t just part of the equation for the Ducks; include Arizona State in this conversation. Given the way the Sun Devils have played, they've earned it.
Ohio State Isn't Dead Yet
The selection committee has a real conundrum on its hands. How does it handle a team that inexplicably lost to Virginia Tech in a game that seems like ages ago?
Since that defeat, Ohio State has found its quarterback. The defense has improved. The overall quality of play has skyrocketed to a point to where the Buckeyes are a different group entirely.
That much was evident as Urban Meyer’s team dismantled Michigan State, 49-37, on the road Saturday. Behind J.T. Barrett, Ohio State looked dangerous. And in beating Michigan State, it has regained control of the Big Ten. What this means beyond the obvious conference implications is where this gets complicated.
As it stands, the Big Ten is likely out of the playoff. With further chaos to develop, however, Ohio State should by no means be out of the discussion entirely. There are far too many impressions to be made and games to be played. More importantly, there are more losses to take place.
Beyond beating Minnesota, Indiana and Michigan, Ohio State’s best hope of crashing the playoff may rest in the hands of Nebraska. If the Cornhuskers can finish the regular season with only one loss, the Big Ten championship will suddenly carry more significance.
If that’s the case, Ohio State (and Nebraska, for that matter) could still have a shot at cracking the top four. One thing’s for certain: The Buckeyes are not a team you’re really lining up to play at this moment in time.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
