Texas A&M vs. Auburn: How Tigers' Loss Reshapes Playoff Picture

The SEC chaos theory is one step closer to actually happening.

The No. 3 Auburn Tigers are almost certainly out of the playoff hunt after a 41-38 upset at the hands of the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday.

Auburn has ridden its luck a ton in the past, and sooner or later, the Tigers were bound to be on the opposite side:

A week after Ole Miss wide receiver Laquon Treadwell fumbled on the goal line to preserve a 35-31 victory for Auburn, Tigers quarterback Nick Marshall fumbled twice in the fourth quarter, ending two comeback attempts and giving the win to the Aggies.

With the Tigers' defeat, the Top Four could look something like this when the selection committee unveils its newest batch of rankings next week.

Seed	Team	Record
1	Mississippi State Bulldogs	9-0 (5-0 SEC)
2	Florida State Seminoles	8-0 (5-0 ACC)
3	Oregon Ducks	8-1 (5-1 Pac-12)
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	7-1 (4-1 SEC)

Back on Oct. 28, as Auburn was preparing to play the Rebels, head coach Gus Malzahn remained confident that if his team won out, it would be in the playoff, per AL.com's Brandon Marcello:

"

My thoughts are tonight does not concern me at all. We have three top 10 teams on the road. I don't think there's another team in college football that can say that. We already went to Kansas State, which is No. 11, we already went to the No. 1 team on the road. The ball is on our court and we'll worry about that when it gets to the end.

"

That might've been the case before Saturday.

Considering how unpredictable this season has been in college football, it might not be accurate to say that Auburn has zero chance of making the playoff. As long as it's not mathematically impossible, the Tigers are still in the hunt, albeit on the periphery.

Despite the heartbreaking nature of their defeat Saturday, the Tigers can't wallow in their misery. As Sports on Earth's Matt Brown pointed out, they'll have to handle a fresh Todd Gurley when they play Georgia next week:

With three losses, you could officially eliminate Auburn from playoff contention.

Auburn's defeat carries ramifications that go beyond the Tigers as well. The SEC's hope of sending two teams to the playoff is a mere pipe dream now. Alabama will likely be fourth next week if the Crimson Tide beat LSU, but that won't last.

For the last few weeks, many have argued about whether the SEC West could possibly send two teams into the playoff.

On one side of the aisle were those who wondered how a team that didn't even win its division could possibly qualify. On the other were those who believed that if the playoff was truly for the four best teams in the country, then a one-loss SEC West runner-up deserved recognition.

NFL.com's Chase Goodbread wrote Wednesday that history isn't exactly in the SEC's favor:

"

Lest anyone forget, Alabama's berth in the BCS National Championship Game after the 2011 season, having failed to win not only the SEC but the SEC West, was something of an impetus for college football's power brokers to first entertain the idea of a playoff. And the fact that the Crimson Tide dominated division rival LSU in the title game that year did nothing to appease those fundamentally convinced that the nation's two best teams couldn't possibly come from the same half of one conference.

"

As is often the case, the system corrected itself, making all of that early SEC debate redundant.

There's the slim chance that Alabama beats Mississippi State next week but the Bulldogs win out and somehow sneak into the Top Four. More than likely, however, the Bulldogs or Crimson Tide will be the only SEC team in.

Of course, the prospect still exists that some combination of Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU and Auburn all finish with two losses atop the SEC West, throwing the division into disarray. Should that happen, all bets are off.

Having somebody lose the division on a three-team tiebreaker could provide the selection committee with enough of an out to send in two SEC teams.

But we'll cross that bridge when it comes.

The biggest winners after the Aggies' win are the Big 12 and the Big Ten. Going by the most recent batch of playoff rankings, Auburn will fall out of the Top Four, opening the door for the winners of TCU/Kansas State and Michigan State/Ohio State to edge that much closer to the playoff.

The Big Ten and Big 12 looked the most likely to be cast aside in the event the SEC had two playoff teams. The Pac-12 is deeper from top to bottom than either the Big Ten or Big 12, so a one-loss Pac-12 winner will in all likelihood finish higher in the rankings.

Now, the fourth playoff spot is a head-to-head battle between the Big Ten and Big 12.