Ranking the Biggest Trap Games Left on the Schedule for CFB Playoff Contenders
With 14 power-five teams at one loss or less, it looks almost certain that the first-ever College Football Playoff will be embroiled in ugly controversy.
Though many folks are already predicting which teams will get left out in the cold, keep in mind that the committee may not be tasked with anything more than a simple exercise of filling in the blanks. It could be as easy as penciling in the names of the only four teams that didn't lose after Week 10.
With six games remaining that pit one legit playoff team against another, the plot thickens. Six losses are a certainty, dropping the number of potential candidates to eight. Add in the four major conference championship games and the field shrinks even further.
Here’s a look at 13 potential playoff teams and 13 opponents—ranked by the level of threat—that could add that telltale first or second loss.
Some of these games are more obvious than others, but all present a potential statistical mismatch that could make a contender or pretender in 60 minutes.
13. Oregon-Colorado
1 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 22, Eugene, Oregon
Given that Colorado hasn’t beaten a ranked team since knocking off No. 21 West Virginia in 2008, an upset win over No. 4 Oregon seems ridiculous.
All supposed logic aside, Colorado is 2-7 with one of the most dangerous big-play offenses in the nation. The Buffaloes have had 145 plays go for 10-plus yards, ranking No. 26 overall.
They’ve really shined in long pass plays, racking up 99 passes of 10-plus yards for a No. 17 ranking.
Pair this with an Oregon defense that has given up 162 plays from scrimmage for 10-plus yards, the fourth most in the entire FBS. Only Cal, Miami (Ohio) and Bowling Green have given up more.
The planets align again by breaking down the Ducks’ performance specifically versus pass plays, where they’ve given up a whopping 108 of 10 or more yards.
How bad is that? They're tied for the fourth most in the FBS ranks.
12. Baylor-Texas Tech
2 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 29, Arlington, Texas
With games remaining with No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 7 Kansas State, Texas Tech looks like the least of Baylor’s concerns.
On paper, the Bears look like the Red Raiders’ absolute worst nightmare, but that’s exactly what makes Texas Tech so dangerous.
The truth is, Texas Tech becomes scarier for Baylor each week that it can successfully start a healthy quarterback who can run Kliff Kingsbury’s potent offense. Despite being down to its third-string signal-caller, Tech still ranks No. 12 in passing yards.
And though Baylor’s No. 57 rank in pass defense doesn’t look like an egregious crime, remember that the Bears gave up 346 aerial yards in its comeback win over TCU, 322 in its loss to West Virginia and then 288 to Kansas—which ranks No. 95 in passing yards—last week.
If healthy and motivated (or desperate), Texas Tech is dangerous, despite its 3-6 record. The Red Raiders hung up 394 passing yards against Oklahoma State, 301 against Kansas State, 348 versus West Virginia and 345 in the disaster versus TCU.
11. TCU-Iowa State
3 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Dec. 6, Fort Worth, Texas
This is another unlikely upset. Iowa State looks like the very least of TCU’s late-season concerns, with the exception of maybe its Nov. 15 road trip to Kansas.
What makes the Cyclones dangerous is their propensity to hang onto the ball. They only have nine turnovers, the fifth least in the nation.
This is a big deal to a team like TCU, which has made its way by being opportunistic: The Horned Frogs have 26 takeaways, the most in the nation.
TCU has scored 12 of its 49 touchdowns (24 percent) and six of its 14 field goals (43 percent) off turnovers this season. Critically, the Horned Frogs scored on a pick-six in their narrow 37-33 upset of then No. 4 Oklahoma and had two touchdowns off turnovers when edging No. 20 West Virginia 31-30 last Saturday.
If Iowa State can continue its careful ways and force the Horned Frogs to score conventionally with a full field in front of them, it could have a chance to do the unthinkable.
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10. Florida State-Miami (Fla.)
4 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 15, Coral Gables, Florida
Of all the legit contenders, Florida State has what looks like the easiest path to the CFP: Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Boston College and Florida. Though the Gators look much scarier after knocking off No. 11 Georgia last Saturday, the biggest threat lies farther south.
What the Hurricanes have to offer is pass defense, and lots of it. Miami ranks No. 12 against the pass, holding teams on average to 180 yards per game.
This is a big deal to a Florida State attack that has been woefully one-dimensional, ranked No. 9 in passing yards versus an awful No. 102 in rushing. This means if you can shut down the Seminoles’ aerial attack and force them to run, you have a chance.
Florida State’s poorest passing performance came against Notre Dame, when it managed 273 yards through the air. It’s no coincidence that this was also its closest call this season.
If Miami can stop Florida State through the air and utilize its No. 32-ranked rush defense to squash a ground attack that’s averaging only 132 yards per game, things could get stormy in the Sunshine State.
9. Ohio State-Michigan
5 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 29, Columbus, Ohio
Saying that Michigan is Ohio State’s trap game is either genius or ridiculous; it's the classic conundrum in any heated rivalry game that pits a successful team against a struggling one.
The Wolverines present a hazard for the Buckeyes because they have proved themselves against the run, ranking No. 16 nationally. Of all the wrongs Michigan has committed this season, it’s held five of its nine opponents to less than 90 yards of rushing.
This presents an interesting matchup to Ohio State, a team that has relied on the run, ranking No. 14 in rushing yards per game versus No. 55 in passing yards.
Other than Penn State, the best rushing defense that the Buckeyes have faced this season is Virginia Tech, which sits at No. 65. The Hokies held Ohio State to a season-low 108 ground yards, fueling a 35-21 upset in the Buckeyes' only loss of the season.
As for the Nittany Lions, who rank No. 1 versus the run, they coughed up 219 rushing yards but still managed to push the Buckeyes into double overtime. Ohio State narrowly escaped with a 31-24 win.
8. Auburn-Texas A&M
6 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 8, Auburn, Alabama
After getting waxed 59-0 by Alabama in Week 8 and then barely edging Louisiana-Monroe 21-16 last Saturday, Texas A&M looks about as threatening as the New York Jets.
Add in the quarterback controversy and the plot thickens for the Aggies and each of their three remaining opponents.
Auburn should fear Texas A&M because if the Aggies can reignite their passing attack, which is a probable scenario given Kevin Sumlin’s track record, they could torch the Tigers.
Auburn ranks No. 97 versus the pass, allowing 416 yards to South Carolina in a 42-35 win two weeks ago and 341 to Ole Miss in last weekend’s 35-31 triumph.
A&M still ranks No. 7 in passing yards, averaging 335 yards per game. Before dropping off the radar in the loss to Alabama, the Aggies put up 365 air yards against Mississippi State and 401 versus Ole Miss.
7. Notre Dame-Louisville
7 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 22, South Bend, Indiana
Louisville presents a challenge for Notre Dame for more reasons than what sounds like a bad question on the SAT test: “If the Cardinals can almost beat Florida State, then can they also almost beat a team that also almost beat the Seminoles?”
If you look at the Notre Dame-Florida State box score, what stands out is how the Irish performed on fourth down, going 2-of-5 for 40 percent.
What’s significant isn’t the poor success rate on fourth down; it’s the fact that they went for it in the first place. Chew on this: Other than the five tries in the Florida State game, the Irish have attempted just four other fourth-down conversions this season.
What the Seminoles are good at is stopping opponents inside the red zone, preventing teams from scoring 72 percent of the time for a No. 15 ranking in the nation. This mark makes Notre Dame’s spike in fourth-down attempts easier to understand.
As for Louisville, it’s been even better inside the 20, allowing a score only 68.1 percent of the time (No. 6) and giving up a touchdown only 31.8 percent of the time—the best mark in the FBS.
6. Michigan State-Penn State
8 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 29, State College, Pennsylvania
If No. 8 Michigan State can survive its game this Saturday with No. 14 Ohio State, the probability of winning out is favorable, since Sparty finishes the season with Maryland, Rutgers and Penn State.
Though the Nittany Lions seem the obvious trap game of the three, what makes them a legitimate threat begins with margin of victory.
Penn State’s margin of victory/defeat against power-five teams is 7.2 points; if you throw out its 29-6 loss to Northwestern, the number drops to 3.25.
This makes the likelihood of Penn State playing a team to the wire (remember it pushed No. 13 Ohio State to double overtime) high. This prospect presents a huge challenge for a team like the Spartans.
Why?
Michigan State ranks No. 107 in field goals, attempting 12 this season and only converting seven for 58.3 percent. It’s the worst mark of any team in the Top 25.
5. Kansas State-Baylor
9 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Dec. 6, Waco, Texas
K-State still has three games against ranked foes (No. 6 TCU, No. 23 West Virginia and No. 12 Baylor), which makes every week a potential trap with the exception of its Nov. 29 date with Kansas.
Baylor presents the Wildcats with a higher-level threat because of its propensity to get off to a quick start.
No team in the FBS is averaging more first-quarter points than Baylor, with 15.6. Only one team—Michigan State with 28.3—has averaged more first-half points than the Bears, who have posted 27.7.
This ability to start quickly is a disadvantage for a team like K-State, which features more of a slow-and-steady attack than an explosive machine that can score 24 points in a quarter. In other words, the worst-case scenario for the Wildcats is finding themselves in a big hole early.
K-State ranks No. 78 in long scrimmage plays, No. 93 in long rushing plays and No. 61 in long passing plays. In the Wildcats near miss against Iowa State in Week 2, they gave up 21 second-quarter points and needed two fourth-quarter scoring drives to secure a narrow 32-28 win.
4. Nebraska-Wisconsin
10 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 15, Madison, Wisconsin
Though Nebraska-Wisconsin will be billed as the battle between two Heisman-caliber running backs for a ticket to the Big Ten title game, it's defense that will rule the day.
When you have two top-10 rushing attacks squaring off (Wisconsin is No. 3, while Nebraska is No. 8), it becomes a story of who can stop who and how many times.
And this is why Wisconsin—owner of the No. 11-ranked rushing defense—looms so large for Nebraska.
If the Badgers are looking for a blueprint for how to beat the Huskers, they need to look no further than the box score of the Michigan State game—Nebraska’s only loss this season.
The Spartans, who have the No. 6-ranked rushing defense, held the Cornhuskers to 47 ground yards. That's a far cry from Nebraska's average of 281 rushing yards per game this season.
3. Arizona State-Arizona
11 of 13
When/Where: Friday, Nov. 28, Tucson, Arizona
After facing No. 10 Notre Dame this weekend, the Sun Devils’ last big test is a road trip to Tucson in another potential blockbuster, season-ending rivalry game.
Arizona ticks two scary boxes for Arizona State: First, its No. 54-ranked rushing attack presents an interesting challenge for a Sun Devil defense that is No. 90 against the run.
Arizona State gave up 232 rushing yards in a 38-24 win over Colorado, 225 in its 62-27 loss to UCLA and 220 in the narrow 38-34 win over USC. Last week, the Sun Devils allowed 184 in their 19-16 near miss versus Utah.
Though the Wildcats aren’t exactly Auburn, they did ring up 208 rushing yards on Oregon in Week 6 and are averaging 179 yards per game.
Next up, Arizona has registered 22 sacks this season, the twelfth most of any team in the nation. This should be interesting for a Sun Devil offensive line that has allowed 22 sacks, earning it the No. 98 rank out of the 128 FBS teams.
2. Mississippi State-Ole Miss
12 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 29, Oxford, Mississippi
This is another rivalry game that could be declared a trap without any statistical analysis. What makes the Rebels so dangerous is the Bulldogs’ struggling pass defense.
Mississippi State ranks No. 123 versus the pass, giving up an average of 311 yards per game. Only SMU, Western Kentucky, Toledo, Bowling Green and Cal are worse.
Among the lowlights for the Bulldogs are coughing up 435 passing yards to UAB in Week 2, 341 to LSU in Week 4, 365 to Texas A&M in Week 6 and 401 to Kentucky in Week 9.
And while the Aggies rank No. 7 in passing offense, UAB ranks No. 64, LSU ranks No. 101 and Kentucky ranks No. 46. So, it’s not like Mississippi State has faced a string of pass-happy Big 12 teams.
This makes Ole Miss, a team that ranks No. 31 in passing yards with an average of 277 yards per game, look scarier, especially since the Rebels also rank No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense.
1. Alabama-Auburn
13 of 13
When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 29, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
No. 5 Alabama has a trap game every week until the end of the season, with the exception of hosting FCS Western Carolina on Nov. 22.
The Tide travel to No. 16 LSU this Saturday, host No. 1 Mississippi State on Nov. 15 and then close out the season with its annual Iron Bowl meeting with No. 3 Auburn.
What makes Auburn the biggest potential hazard, other than its obvious high rank and billing as a rivalry game, is one crucial part of the turnover-margin equation.
The Tide rank No. 84 in turnover margin. Ten lost fumbles drag the ranking down; that's the fourth most of any team in the country for a No. 113 ranking.
Combine this with opportunistic Auburn, which has 11 forced fumbles, the fifth most in the nation for a No. 13 ranking.
This is just the kind of little thing that could be huge in a tight game between two great teams.
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.
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