The College Football Playoff Elimination Game Nobody Saw Coming

Bill Snyder, master of chalkboards, play sheets and press conferences, shaped Kansas State’s upcoming landscape-alerting matchup in a way only he could.

“Big game, I guess,” the Kansas State coach said at his weekly press conference. “That’s what you’d say.”

His enthusiasm, reserved as anticipated, is consistent with a coach who has forgotten more football knowledge than we could ever hope to acquire in our collective lifetimes. Despite his unwillingness to embrace Week 11 as an elimination game for two unforeseen hopefuls, that’s precisely what it will serve as.

This was always the case, of course. Long before the season began, we knew that Week 11 would ultimately decide the Big 12. We also understood that if all went according to plan, a College Football Playoff spot would be won or lost on November 8.

That part hasn’t changed. But the participants have.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma—once thought to be your pseudo-conference championship game—will give up center court to the current No. 6 and No. 7, according to the College Football Playoff’s selection committee. They will be replaced by a team surging thanks in large part to its 75-year-old leader and a program that oh so famously acquired the “Little Sisters of the Poor” label four short years ago.  

Once thought to be on the outskirts of interest due to a power program-heavy slate of games, Kansas State and TCU take a backseat to no one. Not Alabama-LSU, not Arizona State-Notre Dame, not Ohio State-Michigan State, not Oregon-Utah.

Operating with vastly different styles and coaching philosophies, each team has put itself in prime position for a spot in the postseason. The path to get here wasn’t likely or entirely reasonable, but it wasn’t a fluke either.

It was imperfect, which is how it’s supposed to be. And in a year lacking dominant teams, the winner of this matchup that will take on a quarterfinal-ish feel will make an emphatic statement to the group tasked with deciding the postseason.

The Case for TCU: The Rise of a Quarterback

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Having just pulled one of the great escapes of the season, the TCU football team huddled in the Morgantown, West Virginia locker room to pray.

Shortly after it concluded, quarterback Trevone Boykin stood up and apologized to the entire team for his lackluster 12-of-30 performance through the air.

“All head coaches would be happy when one of your leaders shows a sign of maturity and growing up to become what you need them to become,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson said. “I thought he did a great job because nobody prompted him to do that.”

Perhaps we found out more about Boykin—the most improved player in all of college football—in a game in which he suddenly looked human. His development on the field has been one of this season’s most significant storylines. But his growth off of it is an aspect of this maturation that can easily go unnoticed.

Before struggling in the elements against West Virginia last weekend, Boykin had been practically perfect. After bouncing around through much of his career—even changing positions due to injuries and depth concerns—he has exploded.

You can match up his statistical performance over the course of the season with just about any other quarterback. Even with last weekend’s dud factored in, Boykin has been one of the nation's most productive players.

Player	Team	Passing Yards	Rushing Yards	Total Touchdowns
Trevone Boykin	TCU	2472	423	26
Marcus Mariota	Oregon	2541	410	33
Dak Prescott	Mississippi State	2025	725	27
Jameis Winston	Florida State	2279	44	18

Part of this, of course, is the result of experience gained. But it’s much more than that, especially when you look at the evolution of the offense he’s leading and the new influences around him.

“No. 1, he’s older. And No. 2, I think the change of the offense fit him better,” Patterson said. “I think Coach Cumbie and Coach Meacham have done a great job of growing him up. Matt Joeckel coming from A&M really gave him competition and taught him how to run the offense.”

Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie were perhaps college football’s most important free-agent signings of this past season. Meacham came from Houston, where he was the co-offensive coordinator. Cumbie, just 33, was the co-offensive coordinator at Texas Tech. The two arrived with a mission to transform a stagnant offense, and the results have been staggering.

Their influence was immediate, and more importantly, it has allowed Boykin to utilize his skill set. This transformation may seem like a surprise to us, although the man tasked with slowing him down come Saturday saw this coming.

“I’ve never felt that he was anything other than an excellent talent. I’ve always felt that,” Bill Snyder said. “They were playing within a system at that point and time and it was well coordinated with the rest of their program. His numbers are obviously far greater, but I’ve always thought he was a good talent.”

The Case for Kansas State: Embracing the Constant

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Patterson opened his weekly press conference by saying very little. This was the anti-marketing way to tease a game, the opposite of a pay-per-view-ian sell to attract more interest.

“Back at home, game nine,” Patterson said, planning his exit. “Really good Kansas State team, but you don’t really have to say much about them. They’ve been doing it for a while.”

In many ways, Patterson’s Cliff's Notes assessment of K-State is impeccable. It won’t sell tickets or lure viewers, but this is precisely who they are. It’s a label the university wears proudly under its coach, who also moonlights as mascot, university billboard and coaching legend.

“He’s won at a place where nobody could ever do it before,” Patterson added. “He’s won big ball games and done about everything.”

Under Snyder, Kansas State has taken on many forms. The constants of these teams, however, regardless of the surrounding talent, are the little things that give the Wildcats an edge against anyone.

Even when they are at a talent disadvantage—and they often are—they have certain pluses that cannot be countered in areas of importance that can be easily overlooked.

Category	National Rank in 2014	National Rank in 2013	National Rank in 2012
Penalties	No. 2	No. 51	No. 5
Turnover Margin	No. 25	No. 61	No. 2
Red Zone Conversions	No. 6	No. 27	No. 23
Third Down Conversions	No. 10	No. 13	No. 7

“You want to have good people that have a value system in place that tells you they’ll be committed to what it is you’re trying to do,” Snyder said. “Guys that have a selflessness about them and will play within the framework and work within the framework of what our program is all about.”

Led by quarterback Jake Waters along with gifted wideout Tyler Lockett, the Wildcats offense is outperforming its scoring output from last season by nearly a touchdown. As promising as the offense appears, the defense is even better.

As it stands, Kansas State leads the Big 12 in yards allowed and total points allowed. The 18.6 points per game the Wildcats allow is No. 12 nationally. The lone loss, of course, came at the hands of Auburn, the No. 3 team in the latest College Football Playoff Top 25.

Even this defeat had plenty of positive takeaways. And since then, momentum has been building to the point where Kansas State’s familiar voice of reason has had to intervene.

“I’m proud of whatever they've achieved up until this point in time, but all of that is behind us. That’s in the past,” Snyder said. “It’s just about what takes place now. We start looking forward to games down the road or what the polls are going to say at the end of the season, and then we’re looking in the wrong direction.”

There’s something to be said about this sentiment and the unique ability to admire what's at work—an opportunity so close you can almost touch it. And yet there's the necessity of perspective.

The playoff is one of the few football-related matters that Snyder has yet to explore, only because—like everyone else—he’s still figuring out how the thing works. That doesn’t mean he isn’t in tune with his team or the possibility of this dream scenario becoming a reality.

“The preparation isn’t any different. The approach isn’t any different,” Snyder said. “But I’m not naive to all the hoopla around the playoffs. It’s how you handle it.

Live to Fight Another Week

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The expectations have changed.

Kansas State and TCU, thought to be fodder in a year with two overwhelming Big 12 favorites, have seized control for the time being. It happened gradually, but the moment of clarity feels remarkably sudden.

Nothing about this matchup has changed. The date, Nov. 8, has not shifted. The location, Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, will serve as the setting as expected.

The only difference is that TCU and Kansas State suddenly have complete control of their football fates—an unlikely position—even with both programs just a few years removed from a BCS cameo. In football time, it feels like ages ago.

“Both of us are told a lot that you’re not supposed to do what you’re able to do,” Patterson said.

But they have done, outside of a lone blemish apiece, almost anything they please. As a result, an unlikely playoff run will pick up continued steam this Saturday. Another will reach a sudden, crushing halt.

There are no guarantees that either program will end up crashing the College Football Playoff, although the victor will stay alive for another week. In doing so, it will state a tremendous case to the selection committee as the 2014 season inches closer to its conclusion.

Big game, I guess.

Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.