Fantasy Basketball 2014-15: 10 Studs to Buy Low on After Slow Starts
The 2014-15 NBA season hasn't been short on surprises through the first week-and-a-half, which gives fantasy basketball owners a unique opportunity to buy low on slow-starting studs.
Take the 1-3 Cleveland Cavaliers, for example. Fresh off a 102-100 loss to the Utah Jazz in which the Cavs totaled all of six assists, fantasy owners of LeBron James and Kyrie Irving could be having sudden regrets about burning early-round picks on those two. This could be your only opportunity to land either player for less than top-20 value.
Likewise, it's clear that new Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy has yet to settle upon his ideal frontcourt rotation. While Greg Monroe is off to a roaring start following his season-opening two-game suspension, third-year center Andre Drummond can't say the same.
By comparing predraft rankings to players' early-season performances, you can figure out who is due to rebound, making them ideal buy-low targets. These 10 studs in particular are ones you should target, as they're sure to bolster their fantasy value in the weeks and months ahead.
Honorable Mentions
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These three players' spots on ESPN's Player Rater are all relatively close to their FantasyPros.com consensus predraft rankings, which means they're not true buy-low candidates. However, each player should only improve upon his Player Rater rank as the season progresses, making all three tantalizing trade targets in the early going.
Kyle Korver, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks
ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 104
Korver started the season hot against the Toronto Raptors, finishing with 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting (including six three-pointers and three blocks), but cooled off significantly over his next two games. In Atlanta's 94-92 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Nov. 5, the sharpshooter had just seven points on 3-of-10 shooting with only one three-pointer in 36 minutes.
The 12-year veteran missed practice Monday due to an undisclosed illness, per Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, which could have played a role in his abnormally subpar night against San Antonio. There's reason to believe Korver will bounce back quickly enough, though.
Through three games, he's hit nine of his 15 three-point attempts, which is where his fantasy value ultimately lies. So long as he keeps bombing away from deep with regularity, his shot should start falling soon enough, making him a strong trade target for any roster in need of long-range shooting.
Jeremy Lin, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 92
Lin's first few games in Lakerland haven't gotten off to the smoothest start for his fantasy owners. He's only attempted at least 10 shots in one of the Lakers' first five contests, a 118-111 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Halloween night, which was also the only time he's dished out more than six assists.
Kobe Bryant is already singling Lin out in the media, telling reporters that "the biggest thing for him to learn is to play relentlessly…He's just getting used to playing that kind of effort and attitude." The Harvard product earned Kobe's respect by waving him off in the final few minutes of that Clippers game, but it's clear that the two have yet to establish symbiotic chemistry with one another.
"I have to get comfortable," Lin told reporters before the loss to the Clippers. "The biggest thing is the communication. There are some things I need to do better for sure and run the team better. There are some ways the team can help me and create a system or structure to have that opportunity to do what I do best."
Once Lin and Kobe grow more comfortable with one another, the former's fantasy value should begin skyrocketing. Buy low now and reap the rewards later.
Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 43
Conley's buy-low window already may have slammed shut after he erupted for 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting, 11 assists and two steals in Memphis' 102-91 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Nov. 5. It's worth reaching out to his owner and seeing whether he or she thinks the hot performance was a one-game fluke, however.
In Conley's first four contests this season, he averaged just 13.3 points, 5.5 assists and 2.5 rebounds while shooting 31.6 percent overall and 25.0 percent from deep. For a player widely considered a third- or fourth-round pick heading into the year, the slow start had to incite a bit of panic amongst his fantasy owners.
He's never been the sexiest fantasy player, which could have less knowledgeable owners ready to sell low for a hot starter in exchange. If you're able to flip someone like Tony Wroten or Brandon Knight for Conley, you'll be getting away with murder.
Al Horford, PF/C, Atlanta Hawks
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ESPN Player Rater Rank: 97
Through three games, Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford is averaging just 14 points, eight rebounds and two blocks while shooting a career-low 46.5 percent from the field. Owners who burned a third- or fourth-round pick on him can't be pleased with the early returns, especially if they bypassed Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol.
If the Horford owner in your league is already looking to jump ship, run, don't walk, to oblige him or her. Barring another injury, his fantasy value is unlikely to ever be lower, making this the perfect time to buy low on him.
The Florida product is working his way back from his second season-ending pectoral tear in three years, so head coach Mike Budenholzer is wisely limiting his playing time in the early going. He's averaging just 30 minutes per game so far this season, a far cry from the 37.2 he played two years ago.
His per-36-minute averages of 16.8 points and 9.6 rebounds are right in line with what he produced over the past four seasons, while the six blocks in three games are a further positive development for his fantasy value. Over his seven-plus-year career, he's blocked a shot in three or more straight contests just 38 times, not including this current streak.
As Horford works his way back toward the 35-minute-per-game mark, his box-score impact should rise accordingly. There aren't many players capable of delivering 20 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks and a field-goal percentage of .500 or more; thus, landing one for less than full value is a major heist for any fantasy owner.
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 221
Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond appeared to enter the 2014-15 season on the precipice of a massive breakout. He finished last year ranked second in field-goal percentage (.623), second in rebounds (13.2) and 10th in blocks (1.6), and his new head coach, Stan Van Gundy, nurtured Dwight Howard into one of the league's best big men.
Through four regular-season games, those positive preseason vibes have yet to carry over, however. Drummond is averaging just 10.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 27.3 minutes per contest, shooting a dismal 44.2 percent overall and 31.3 percent from the charity stripe.
Foul trouble deserves much of the blame for the UConn product's early-season struggles. He fouled out of Detroit's season opener against the Denver Nuggets in just 27 minutes and racked up five fouls in each of the Pistons' next three games.
Van Gundy shrugged off Drummond's foul trouble, telling reporters, "It's a process. We're asking him to do more things. We're not letting him just do the same thing all the time." Though his free-throw shooting will continue to submarine you in that category, his other per-game averages should rise as the season progresses.
If any owners in your league are panicking about Drummond's slow start, try swiping him for 80 cents on the dollar, especially in head-to-head formats. This might be your last chance to buy low on the Pistons big man, as he's certain to grow more comfortable with Van Gundy's schemes in the coming weeks.
Carmelo Anthony, SF, New York Knicks
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 95
Carmelo Anthony's fantasy owners likely aren't huge fans of the triangle offense. The unanimous first-round pick is averaging a career-low 19.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.0 free-throw attempts and 0.6 steals while shooting a paltry 40.6 percent overall, although his 4.4 assists per game would shatter his previous best.
Still, you didn't burn a top-10 pick on Anthony for him to become a rich man's Nicolas Batum. Fantasy owners expected scoring in droves, along with a healthy sprinkling of rebounds, three-pointers and free throws, which has yet to come to fruition under new head coach Derek Fisher.
After erupting for 25 points on 9-of-17 shooting against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Oct. 30, Anthony's fantasy needle appeared to be pointing up. However, his combined 31 points on 13-of-44 shooting against Washington and Detroit on a back-to-back Nov. 4 and 5 was a major red flag for his owners.
Following the 98-95 loss to the Pistons, ESPNNewYork.com's Ian Begley offered his take on Melo's struggles, writing, "It seems as if Anthony isn't comfortable yet in the Knicks' triangle offense." Right before the start of the season, Anthony preached patience with the Knicks, telling reporters, "It's a work in progress now. It's going to be a work in progress until the end of the season."
In other words, Anthony hasn't suddenly forgotten how to light up scoreboards; he and his fellow teammates are simply learning their way around the triangle offense. As the Knicks grow more comfortable with this new system, Anthony's fantasy value is certain to rise, making him a tantalizing buy-low target if you can acquire him for someone like Rudy Gay or Klay Thompson.
Goran Dragic, PG, Phoenix Suns
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 147
Phoenix Suns point guard Goran Dragic is well aware of his early-season struggles. The 2014 Most Improved Player is averaging just 12.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 0.4 steals through five games, a far cry from the career-high 20.3 points he put up last season.
After the Suns' 102-91 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Nov. 5, Dragic admitted his frustration, per Garrett Benson and Dave King of Bright Side of the Sun:
"I'm still looking for my spot. It's tough, but at the same time, I try to do what is good for the team. It's different for me this year, but hopefully we are going to find that quick.
[…]
I'm shooting the ball bad. My confidence is not so high, for sure. It's just different looks for me this year than last year, so maybe because of that. I'm working on that, hopefully it's gonna come back.
"
The addition of Isaiah Thomas was always bound to crimp Dragic's per-game averages, as there simply aren't enough minutes to go around between those two and Eric Bledsoe. As the Suns' three-headed point-guard monster grows more acclimated with one another, their statistics should rise accordingly.
Dragic won't match his top-20 fantasy finish from last season, but he's also not going to finish outside the top 100. If you're able to convince his owner that Thomas and Bledsoe have irrevocably destroyed his fantasy value, you could wind up with a top-15 point guard without trading away a major asset.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 256
San Antonio Spurs swingman Kawhi Leonard has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of fantasy basketball this year. Though his Player Rater rank is artificially depreciated due to him having missed the first two games of the season, he hasn't come anywhere close to living up to his pre-draft top-20 value.
Heading into the season, Leonard appeared primed for a monster year. He was fresh off winning the 2014 Finals MVP, having averaged 17.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.2 three-pointers, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 61.2 percent overall and 57.9 percent from three-point range against Miami, and figured to see an increase of playing time given his eruption in the Finals.
The San Diego State product openly lobbied Spurs coach Gregg Popovich for more minutes heading into the year, telling Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News, "I'm going to have to get consistent minutes to play at a consistent level [like I did in the Finals]." Pop also preached consistency as the key with Leonard this season, saying, "To be in that top echelon of players in our league, it's a huge responsibility to have to come and do that every night."
Through his first three games, however, Leonard has been anything but consistently dominant. He's averaging just 8.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.7 steals in 27.5 minutes per game while shooting a dismal 26.9 percent overall and an even more ghastly 14.3 percent from three-point range.
The fourth-year swingman finished last season ranked 45th on ESPN's Player Rater, so anyone who drafted him as a first- or second-round pick this year was bound for a letdown. After missing almost all of the preseason with an eye infection, he'll round into shape soon enough, making this possibly the last buy-low window you'll have with Leonard this year.
Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 69
Without paying heed to Kemba Walker's efficiency, you wouldn't know he's been off to a somewhat dismal start. His per-game averages of 15.2 points, 4.0 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 2.2 three-pointers and 1.2 steals don't exactly justify the four-year, $48 million contract extension he just received, but they're not too horrific.
Shooting efficiency continues to be Walker's bugaboo, however, as he's hit just 36.9 percent of his field-goal attempts through five games. He had a brutal 1-of-11 night in the Charlotte Hornets' 71-69 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Nov. 1 but bounced back convincingly against the Miami Heat four nights later, finishing with 18 points on 5-of-6 shooting, seven dimes, four boards and two steals with just one turnover.
Field-goal percentage has long been Walker's biggest negative in terms of fantasy value, as he shot just 39.8 overall through his first three seasons. He finished last year with a minus-2.38 in terms of field-goal percentage, per ESPN's Player Rater, which caused him to wind up as the 49th-best fantasy player.
Had he shot even 45 percent overall in 2013-14, he would have finished the year as a top-30 fantasy value. Likewise, the minus-1.51 he's earned in field-goal percentage this season is all that's keeping him from a top-50 ranking on ESPN's Player Rater.
Though it's foolish to assume Walker will suddenly being shooting in the high 40s, there's reason to believe his efficiency will improve once he and Lance Stephenson get a better feel for one another. If you're able to swipe Walker for a guy like Jrue Holiday or Deron Williams, it's an absolute no-brainer on your part.
Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 132
Kenneth Faried opened the 2014-15 season with a 22-point, 17-rebound explosion against the Detroit Pistons, seemingly portending an impending breakout for the fourth-year forward. In the three games since, however—all Denver Nuggets losses, mind you—he's combined for just 21 points, 21 rebounds and five assists.
Head coach Brian Shaw explained away Faried's early-season struggles following the Nuggets' practice on Tuesday, via Benjamin Hochman of The Denver Post:
"[Faried's] consistency will kind of be directly related to Ty Lawson's consistency, and Ty's really had just one [good] half in our three games, the second half of the OKC game. When Ty's not being aggressive, when he's not getting it going, it affects Kenneth and Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari and everyone else. Everybody's kind of interlinked, and right now, everybody's struggling for the most part. ...
And just because of the success he had on the U.S. team, and how he played the last month of last season, he's not a go-to guy. His success is with rebounds and energy. He produces that on his own. He's dependent on Ty setting the table.
"
Hochman didn't fully buy that excuse, however, writing, "If this dude is as good as people say he can be, then he must get up for all games, not just exciting big games." Faried's post-All-Star-break per-game averages from last season—18.8 points and 10.1 rebounds—proved that he's capable of consistent dominance, but he's fallen back into his maddeningly inconsistent routine to start the year.
With Lawson already having battled minor hamstring and ankle ailments, the Nuggets need Faried more than ever to be their go-to guy. So long as he averages at least 30 minutes, he'll be a nightly double-double threat, which makes him one of the top buy-low targets given how cheaply you can likely acquire him.
Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 75
Some fantasy owner in your league likely spent a top-20 pick on Kyrie Irving this year, figuring the arrival of LeBron James and Kevin Love in Cleveland would lead to a huge increase in his field-goal percentage and assist totals. Through four games, said owner is likely mortified about that decision.
Irving hasn't had much trouble in terms of scoring, as evidenced by his season-high 34 points in the Cleveland Cavaliers' 102-100 loss to the Utah Jazz on Nov. 5. However, the Cavs' offense has looked extraordinarily disjointed, which is crippling Irving's fantasy value elsewhere.
James and Irving reportedly "exchanged words" in Cleveland's locker room following the team's 101-82 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Nov. 4, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst, with James "voicing concerns about the direction of the Cavs' offense." The four-time MVP later told reporters, "There's a lot of bad habits, a lot of bad habits been built up the past couple years," which appeared to be a not-so-veiled shot at Irving and Dion Waiters.
As the Cavaliers grow more accustomed to one another, Irving's assist totals are destined to rise accordingly. He's currently 11th in the league in touches per game (87.5) but is tied with Detroit Pistons forward Josh Smith for 42nd in average assist opportunities and is 19th in passes per contest.
Irving may never achieve top-20 fantasy value this season, as there are simply too many mouths to feed in Cleveland. However, he's a lock to improve upon his current rank of 75—think top-40 as his floor, ultimately—which means you should prey on his fantasy owner's fears and swipe him for someone like Eric Bledsoe if possible.
Lance Stephenson, SG, Charlotte Hornets
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 131
Lance Stephenson's offseason move to the Charlotte Hornets appeared as though it would be a boon to his fantasy value. Through the Hornets' first five games, however, it's been anything but.
Stephenson has cracked the double-digit point threshold just once so far, having scored seven, two, two and eight in the Hornets' other four games, respectively. He's shooting a ghastly 26.7 percent overall and has yet to hit a three-pointer, having attempted just five shots from downtown to date.
Beyond his atrocious scoring figures and field-goal percentage, however, there's a lot to like about Stephenson's start. He's averaging an eye-popping 10.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game, both of which would shatter his previous career highs.
"I'm getting more comfortable now," Stephenson told reporters following the Hornets' 96-93 loss to the New York Knicks on Nov. 2, where he finished with 14 points, nine rebounds, eight assists and three steals. "I've just got to be more consistent."
Just like the disjointed Cleveland Cavaliers, Stephenson is still growing acclimated to his new surroundings. Once he finds his way in the coming weeks, he'll likely skyrocket into being a top-50 fantasy option, making him one of the top buy-low candidates if his owner is getting impatient with his slow start.
LeBron James, SF/PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 21
Once Kevin Durant went down in the preseason with his foot fracture, LeBron James vaulted to the top of many fantasy owners' draft boards. After seeing James struggle with inconsistency to start the year—compared to Anthony Davis, who is now the NBA's new unibrowed overlord—those owners must be furious with themselves.
Let's keep things in perspective, though. First, even with him averaging 23.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.8 three-pointers per game while shooting just 41.3 percent overall, he's ranked 21st on ESPN's Player Rater.
More importantly, he's well aware the Cleveland Cavaliers' offense isn't running at peak efficiency at the moment. Before the Cavs' 102-100 loss to the Utah Jazz on Nov. 5, James spoke with reporters about the balancing act he's currently battling:
"It's a fine line. I've had two games where I've played a little passive and been more of a set-up guy and it's resulted in two losses. And I've had a game where I've been very aggressive and we won. Is winning the ultimate thing? Or us being the best [team] we can be [as a whole] or winning one game? It's something that's going on in my mind right now. I'm trying to figure out. I definitely can't go into a game having 12 shot attempts. That's me personally.
"
In other words: James isn't just being passive for no reason. He's made the conscious decision not to reward his teammates' dismal offensive efforts by bailing them out with Herculean performances, having seen how far that method of team building can carry him after his last stint in Cleveland.
This may be your only chance this year—or, hell, in the next five years—to pry James away for less than top-five value. Anyone who can flip a guy like Chris Bosh, Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol for the four-time MVP shouldn't think twice before hitting "accept" on that trade offer.
All player statistics via Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted, and current through Thursday, Nov. 6. All team rankings and ESPN Player Rater rankings are current through Wednesday, Nov. 5.
