San Francisco 49ers: How to Win a Must-Win Game Against the New Orleans Saints

When the NFL realigned its divisions prior to the 2002 season, it was supposed to mark the end of the road trips to Louisiana for the San Francisco 49ers.  The New Orleans Saints used to be in the NFC West along with the 49ers, but the two teams were separated into different, more geographically logical divisions.  Thus, the 49ers would stop having to travel across the country to play in the Superdome every season.

Or, at least, that was the theory. 

The last three years have felt like a blast back to the old NFC West, as the 49ers have had to travel to New Orleans in November in 2012, 2013 and this season.  This will actually be the sixth time the 49ers have played in the Superdome, excluding Super Bowl XLVII, since realignment—about once every other year.  By comparison, the Saints have traveled to San Francisco only three times in that span.

It hasn’t exactly been a great place for the 49ers either—they’re 1-4 on the road against the Saints since realignment, with the only win coming in 2012 in Colin Kaepernick’s second start.  It’s not the best draw for a must-win game for San Francisco if it's to keep pace in the wild-card hunt.

Dave Martin/Associated Press

A controversial call hurt the 49ers last season—Ahmad Brooks was flagged for roughing the passer on a borderline hit on Drew Brees, an infraction for which he was not fined.  The 49ers still had a chance to win but allowed Drew Brees to march down the field as time expired, and the Saints kicked the game-winning field goal.

With the way the 49ers have been playing the past month, they shouldn’t have any chance to win this game.  They lost to the essentially dead St. Louis Rams in Week 9 after being pulverized by the Denver Broncos the week before.  By the time the game kicks off on Sunday, it will have been nearly a month since the last time San Francisco looked like a solid squad, when they won decisively over the Rams back in Week 6.

A month ago, this seemed like a great chance for the 49ers to earn their playoff stripes. With the team sitting at 4-2, riding a three-game winning streak, they seemed poised to make a deep run at the division title.  Meanwhile, the Saints had to go into overtime to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and were floundering at 2-3 heading into their bye week.

Since then, the Saints offense has found its footing, averaging 426 yards a game.  The 49ers have only topped 426 yards once this entire season, and that’s what New Orleans is averaging.  This has the potential to go pear-shaped very quickly for the 49ers.

There is, of course, a silver lining.  Just as San Francisco’s offense has struggled to get anything going, the Saints defense has struggled to stop anyone.  It has allowed 355 yards of offense per game over the past three weeks, and that’s actually an improvement over its season averages.  The Saints were torched by the Atlanta Falcons to the tune of 568 yards—an Atlanta Falcons team that sits at 2-6 and is only alive thanks to the fact that the entire NFC South has been subpar this season.  The Green Bay Packers went for 491 yards, the Dallas Cowboys for 445 yards. This is a defense that can be exploited.

Where the Saints defense is really struggling is in pass coverage.  If the 49ers are going to upset the Saints and right their season, it’s going to be by attacking through the air.  The three main defensive backs targeted have been Keenan Lewis, Corey White and Kenny Vacarro...and they all have been vulnerable:

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yds/Rec	TD	INT	PD	Rating
Keenan Lewis	49	27	374	13.9	3	1	7	91.7
Corey White	54	37	446	12.1	3	3	2	89.0
Kenny Vacarro	20	15	176	11.7	0	1	1	80.4

Of course, to take advantage of these targets, Colin Kaepernick needs to stay upright for more than three seconds.  According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Kaepernick has a quarterback rating of 107.8 when he has 2.6 seconds or more in the pocket.  That’s not just good, that’s the fourth best in the NFL, behind only Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.  When pressured, however, that drops to only 86.3, 23rd best in the NFL.  That’s a huge gap—only Ben Roethlisberger’s rating drops by more when he’s forced to hurry.

Oddly, Kaepernick hasn’t been sacked on these quick plays, which sounds good at first glance.  That’s not because of efficiency, however; that’s mostly because Kaepernick is an expert at scrambling away from danger.  He can add an extra half-second or so onto plays with his legs when he’s forced to scramble.  When he does that and gets away, he’s a top-five NFL quarterback.  It’s just difficult to get away on every snap.

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Kaepernick’s been under pressure on 36 percent of his pass attempts this season, according to PFF, and he’s been sacked 27 times—the most in the NFL.  When he’s not under pressure, he does great, but his offensive line hasn’t given him that time.  At this point in his development, when he’s forced to scramble and make plays, Kaepernick reverts to being a one-read passer.  He’s not yet at the level where he can avoid the pressure and reread the defense.  He’s still developing.

So, for the 49ers to have a chance to win this one, the offensive line has got to keep the pressure at bay and give Kaepernick time in the pocket.  That mostly means stopping Junior Galette, the one true pass-rushing threat the Saints have. 

Gallette has 36 pressures on the season, according to Pro Football Focus, and he’s coming off of his best game of the season against the Carolina Panthers and Cam Newton.  The NFC Defensive Player of the Week leads the team in sacks and forced fumbles and is a menace.  Furthermore, he tends to lineup on both sides of the line, meaning he’ll challenge both Joe Staley and Anthony Davis.  If they’re able to keep him in check, the 49ers might have a chance to pull this one out.  Otherwise, it’s hard to see them getting close.

I’ll admit, I’m pessimistic.  The 49ers we’ve seen over the last month are not a team capable of beating the Saints.  They need to go back to the way they were playing the first month of the season—those guys throttled Dallas and even played well in a couple of their early losses.  That’s a team you can count on to make the playoffs; the way they’re playing right now...I’d guess they would lose by double digits to a motivated New Orleans.

Tim Ireland/Associated Press

The 49ers can get back control of their own destiny with a win and a loss by either Green Bay, Dallas, Detroit or Philadelphia.  A loss on the other hand—while it may not cripple them—will heavily wound them.

The website PlayoffStatus.com does a very interesting mathematical breakdown of various teams playoff chances, using “what if” scenarios.  As it stands right now, they have the 49ers with a 68 percent chance of missing the playoffs—or rather, an average 4-4 team playing a schedule roughly as difficult as the 49ers have would have a 68 percent chance.  That’s not great, but it’s not a lost cause.

Lose to the Saints, however, and that number jumps up to a 77 percent chance—less than one in four 4-5 teams would be expected to ride out San Francisco’s schedule and still clinch a playoff berth in the tough NFC environment.  The loss wouldn’t mathematically eliminate them from anything, but it would be time to stop dreaming Super Bowl dreams and resort to trying to figure out how the 49ers could bounce back in any capacity.

Like I said, I have a bad feeling about this game.  Perhaps the 49ers will turn it around and pull off the upset and be back in the thick of the playoff race.  As a fan, that’s what you should be hoping.  As an objective viewer, however, it’s hard to see the team, as it’s been playing recently, standing a chance on the road.

Prediction: New Orleans 34, San Francisco 14

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.