49ers vs. Saints: Breaking Down San Francisco's Game Plan
Is there a way for the San Francisco 49ers to bounce back after an embarrassing and offensively underwhelming performance against the St. Louis Rams in Week 9?
If there is a way, the 49ers will have to figure out how to do so when they take to the road to face the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, November 9, at 1 p.m. ET.
At 4-4, San Francisco is standing on the edge of a steep cliff. There is plenty of time for the 49ers to turn things around en route to another potential playoff berth. But, at the same time, we've seen clear evidence that San Francisco's problems are perfectly capable of derailing the team's season.
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Those problems were revealed in utmost clarity against St. Louis. Defensively, the 49ers were sound enough to put the team in a position to win. Yet on offense, everything was a mess.
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times, the offensive line was a sieve, the running game was all but abandoned again, and two costly turnovers proved to be difference-makers.
And all of this was to a previously 2-5 banged-up Rams squad whom the 49ers had two weeks for which to prepare.
No wonder there is speculation about whether or not San Francisco has a chance to make it back into the playoffs—an aspect described further by Bleacher Report's Adam Lefkoe and Chris Simms below.
These woes have led to all kinds of speculation. Will Jim Harbaugh return in 2015? What is the identity of the offense? How much is offensive coordinator Greg Roman's play-calling holding this team back?
The list goes on and on.
But to simply count this team out at this point is premature. There remains plenty of football left to be played. And this quest will continue in Week 10 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
The Opponent: New Orleans Saints
After getting off to a lackluster 1-3 start, the 4-4 Saints have shown a little bit of resurgence over the last two weeks. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back victories over the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers in Weeks 8 and 9, respectively.
During that two-game span, the Saints outscored their opponents 72-33.
Quarterback Drew Brees is completing 69.6 percent of his passes and has 15 touchdowns against eight interceptions—good for a 97.1 quarterback rating.
Brees' favorite target continues to be tight end Jimmy Graham, who leads all Saints receivers with 46 receptions for 518 yards and five touchdowns.
The wide receiver combination of Marques Colston and rookie Brandin Cooks are also proven threats. Both have crested at least 45 receptions and more than 400 receiving yards.
| TE Jimmy Graham | 46 | 518 | 11.3 | 5 |
| WR Brandin Cooks | 43 | 410 | 9.5 | 2 |
| WR Marques Colston | 28 | 444 | 15.9 | 1 |
| WR Kenny Stills | 24 | 373 | 15.5 | 1 |
No. 1 running back Mark Ingram has six rushing touchdowns on the year and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
The offense ranks No. 8 in the NFL with 227 points scored. New Orleans also ranks No. 5 in total passing yards (2,456) and No. 10 in rushing yards (1,036).
Defensively, the Saints rank as a middle-of-the-pack type of team. They have given up the 15th-most points (198), allowed the 13th-fewest all-purpose yards (2,964) and have just nine turnovers gained by the defense.
New Orleans has given up 817 yards on the ground—ninth lowest in the league. This number is skewed somewhat by the frequent shootout contests New Orleans has found itself in. Weeks 1, 5 and 8 are perfect examples of this.
Against opponents' passing games, the Saints rank No. 22 in the league with 2,147 yards allowed.
With these numbers in mind, we can speculate that this should be a relatively high-scoring affair, right?
Maintain Defensive Prowess
San Francisco's offense is clearly going to get the bulk of attention during this game. It is also the unit that has drawn the most questions, so we'll save that for last.
Defensively, the 49ers will look to continue the efforts showcased against the Rams in Week 9. San Francisco's defense held the Rams to just 193 total yards and one touchdown last week, forcing two turnovers in the process.
Yet that was against the Rams—a team that has lost offensive contributors like wide receiver Brian Quick and left tackle Jake Long to season-ending injuries. New Orleans figures to be a much more difficult challenge.
San Francisco has given up the 10th-fewest points on the season (178), and it ranks No. 2 in the league with only 2,335 yards allowed.
In spite of a relatively lackluster pass rush—one that has generated just 13 sacks on the season—the 49ers pass defense has given up just 1,650 yards through the air, which is the third lowest in the NFL. San Francisco is almost as formidable against the run, having given up the fifth-fewest yards gained on the ground (685).
The numbers stand in stark contrast to the early concerns that surrounded this team entering the year. One might have worried how well a revamped secondary would jell in 2014. Further concerns included the absences of linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith.
These, combined with further losses of Patrick Willis and Tramaine Brock over lengthened periods, have been solved by the stellar play of players like cornerback Perrish Cox and rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch.
Cox is tied for second in the league with four interceptions, and Lynch continues to showcase his pass-rushing abilities while Smith continues to serve his nine-game suspension. Veteran safety Antoine Bethea also continues to have a worthy impact.
Defensively, the 49ers are as sound as they could have hoped for entering this matchup. Yes, the pass rush remains an issue, but at least San Francisco has some fortitude with which to work.
This fortitude will again be put to the test against Brees and a potent Saints offense Sunday.
Rediscovering the Offensive Identity
Just who are the 49ers when it comes to evaluating the offense?
For years, San Francisco was a run-first, run-heavy team that featured backs like Frank Gore powering over defenses for a 60-minute period. The 49ers didn't need to beat you in a shootout fashion. They were perfectly content winning 21-10 or 24-14 in games that featured a time-consuming, physical ground-and-pound attack.
Gore is aged now, and it is safe to say the 31-year-old no longer possesses the same first step and burst that made him one of the premier backs in the league. Rookie Carlos Hyde is in line to be the preeminent back of the 49ers' future, but he has gotten just 50 rushing attempts and is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry.
The 49ers obviously want to put more of the offense on the shoulders of Kaepernick. During the offseason, they surrounded him with a plethora of new receiving targets—Brandon Lloyd, Stevie Johnson and rookie Bruce Ellington.
These were to combine with incumbents Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.
For the first time in the Harbaugh era, the 49ers have emerged as a pass-first offense. San Francisco has a total of 262 passing attempts to just 231 rushes.
| WR Anquan Boldin | 45 | 540 | 12.0 | 2 |
| WR Michael Crabtree | 37 | 362 | 9.8 | 3 |
| WR Stevie Johnson | 28 | 356 | 12.7 | 3 |
| TE Vernon Davis | 16 | 161 | 10.1 | 2 |
We could go further into the results, but the win-loss record should tell us enough. Combine that with an offense that has generated 2,765 all-purpose yards—No. 24 in the league—and you can see this approach has not yielded the results.
So wherein does the problem reside?
It is easy, and perhaps deserved, to say that play-calling schemes from Roman are throwing this unit out of whack. Bleacher Report's Sean Tomlinson described how Roman's approach is having a more devastating effect on the offense than at any other time during his tenure with the team.
But we cannot entirely place the blame on Roman.
Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area writes:
"The offensive coordinator has not been able to find the answers and push the right buttons. I think everybody can agree on that. But I do not believe Roman is the problem with the 49ers’ offense. I think the problems are widespread. ... But Roman does not block anyone. He does not handle the center-quarterback exchange. He is not responsible for throwing the ball. He is not responsible for catching the ball. He is not responsible for holding onto the ball.
"
Maiocco does point out a flurry of problems, not all of which fall upon Roman himself.
The offensive line, which has lacked continuity for much of the season, has been a prime culprit—further described by David Neumann of Niners Nation.
This unit was known for being an elite squad of run-blocking guys up front. In pass protection, this hasn't exactly been the case. From 2011 to 2013, San Francisco gave up a total of 124 sacks (11th highest over that stretch) despite the fewest passing attempts during that time frame per Eric Branch of SFGate.com.
With this stat in mind, we can deduce that the O-line's strength resides in the ability to move the ball on the ground effectively and continuously throughout games. Such has not been the case with San Francisco's approach in 2014.
But the problems do not stop there.
One can also call into question the decision-making process of Kaepernick. His sometimes-frequent flashes of brilliance are often offset by poor mistakes and untimely lack of execution. Take his fourth-quarter, final-drive pass to Crabtree last week.
Had that ball been thrown just a few feet higher, Crabtree walks into the end zone and the 49ers come away with a victory.
But Crabtree and Davis also figure into the problematic offense. Davis has caught just 16 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns on the season—a far cry from what we were hoping for out of the two-time Pro Bowler.
Crabtree has also underwhelmed during a contract year. He has just 37 receptions for 362 yards despite being targeted 60 times. Stevie Johnson, on the other hand, has been far more efficient in spite of a reduced role—an element pointed out by Maiocco.
So how exactly do the 49ers get their offense back on track?
It's safe enough to state the current approach is not working. If the definition of insanity truly is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results, then one has to wonder what changes need to be made.
Let's hope San Francisco returns to its strength—a power-run game that feeds into play action and an opportunistic passing game.
Now this doesn't mean the 49ers should just run Gore straight up the middle 75 percent of the time. The 49ers had some success running swing plays and misdirections last week against the Rams. There were a few well-timed screens mixed in as well.
Perhaps we should see more of these as they can prove vital to offset a Saints defense that will look to be aggressive against a permeable O-line.
San Francisco can still use combinations of four- and five-wideout sets, but it doesn't have to be featured all the time. The O-line is struggling in one-on-one matchups, so there should be no need to consistently rely on this approach.
Get back to your strengths, San Francisco. Do what you do best, and make your adjustments accordingly.
Find Red-Zone Paydirt
The 49ers' fourth-quarter and red-zone woes have plagued this team all season long. San Francisco has scored just one offensive touchdown in the final quarter of games this year—an Ellington TD reception in garbage time against the Denver Broncos in Week 7.
This is another area in which the 49ers will have to improve.
It can be offset and/or bolstered by an increased effort in the red zone.
San Francisco's red-zone offense is last in the league—a unit that has generated just 10 touchdowns in 25 red-zone attempts per Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News.
This stands in stark contrast to the 11th-best overall effort in red-zone efficiency last year (31 scores in 55 attempts).
Perhaps a sizable portion of the 49ers' red-zone woes can be attributed to Davis. Out of Davis' 55-career touchdowns, 34 have come within the red zone. This season, he has just one.
Another shocking stat is that Gore has just one rushing touchdown on the season. His lack of use in the closing moments of San Francisco's Week 9 loss to the Rams surprised many, including Bleacher Report's Matt Miller.
Again, the 49ers have to rethink their approach when they get inside the opponent's 20-yard line. This is a factor made ever-more critical given that field goals will likely not cut it when San Francisco squares off against the Saints on Sunday.
On one hand, the 49ers have an excellent chance to bounce back after what many might argue was the worst loss in the Harbaugh era.
They'll have to do so against a talented yet inconsistent Saints squad that is riding a hot streak and has a perfect 3-0 record at home this year.
But for the 49ers, an approach that allows the team to get back to the basics will likely be the best game plan to formulate any chance for success.
Let the overcomplicated schemes end, and implement a plan that best utilizes the strengths contained within the team.
That is, by far, the only way San Francisco can get back on its feet.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive for 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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