Kramer's College Football Playoff Notebook: Committee Not Afraid of Huge Moves
We had our doubts—and the final verdict is nowhere close to taking shape—although the College Football Playoff selection committee is doing enough in its infancy to give you hope that this chaos-driven weekly exercise might actually work.
Now, please don’t smother this group of human beings with praise just yet; not that this scenario ever entered your mind after only two weeks. Call it an orientation.
Ultimately, none of this really matters until it actually does.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
It’s the final product—the four teams tabbed once all conference champions have been decided—that will determine our confidence in the group moving forward. Nothing else. And yet, with Week 11's College Football Playoff Top 25 unveiled, provided courtesy of USA Today's George Schroeder, the selection committee’s mindset is starting to come into focus:
"Week 2 @CFBPlayoff Top 25: pic.twitter.com/1Sn1thB3np
— George Schroeder (@GeorgeSchroeder) November 5, 2014"
We learned that, for the most part, the teams scattered throughout the Top 25 are generally where they’re supposed to be. There are discussions to be had over placement—and a few general omissions to have concern with—but the committee seems to be operating under the guidelines it promised, which is significant.
Perhaps most importantly, however, is that the committee seems completely unafraid to give teams a larger jump or drop than we’ve seen in recent years. It didn’t just stand pat in its second week of work, sliding down the losers and propping up the winners in assembly-line fashion, similar to what we saw from the BCS. It made a handful of head-turning decisions.
The committee gave Arizona State an enormous boost for its win against Utah, lifting the Sun Devils from No. 14 to No. 9. It took the bottom out of the Bulldogs, following their lackluster showing in a 38-20 loss to the Florida Gators, dropping Georgia down to No. 20 from No. 11. It also bounced Ole Miss from No. 4 to outside the Top 10.
These larger, notable moves are the ones that matter, at least at this point in the season. If the committee is willing to take these types of stands off one-game performances—celebrating the power of a remarkably limited sample size—then ultimately it will continue to adjust these rankings without worry of shocking the system.
This is a good thing, especially when you consider how much the system will be shocked. (Perhaps as early as this upcoming weekend.)
Here are other observations regarding the committee’s work and what they mean moving forward.
Here Comes the Pac-12 Love
Arizona State’s surge to the No. 9 spot isn’t the only notable move in the Top 10. In fact, it’s not even the most impactful jump as it stands right now.
Following their 45-16 drubbing of Stanford—along with Auburn’s win over former No. 4 Ole Miss—the 8-1 Ducks entered the playoff if it just so happened to start right now, sliding up from No. 5 to No. 4. Although Oregon never truly received consideration to jump any higher, it makes no difference.
As committee chairman Jeff Long stated (via Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel):
"Long: "There was a clear voting difference between No. 2 FSU and No. 3 Auburn, Auburn solidly into No. 3 position ahead of Oregon."
— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) November 5, 2014"
If the Ducks win out, they’re in. It's that simple. And in a strange turn, Arizona State—with a game against Notre Dame coming—might be in the same position. The Sun Devils, if all goes according to plan, could draw Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game. If that’s the case, you could be looking at a true under-the-radar CFB playoff resume taking shape before our eyes.
Elsewhere, Utah—despite losing 19-16 in overtime to Arizona State—didn’t budge from the No. 17 spot, which speaks volumes about what the committee thinks of the conference. And UCLA, still a mystery to us all, jumped four spots from No. 22 to No. 18.
Not bad for one week.
Irish Fans, Be Happy You Just Got Jumped
Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff lifespan has been uneventful but also fascinating due to the lack of movement. In a bit of a surprise, the Irish debuted at No. 10 in the initial rankings. After struggling against Navy on the road—still coming away with a double-digit victory, 49-39—Notre Dame didn’t move at all, even as Ole Miss exited the Top 10.
Cause for concern? Absolutely not. In fact, given the team cruising past it, this is a positive development for Notre Dame.
Arizona State’s move past the Irish comes at the perfect time. In desperate need of that resume-boosting win—rather than holding up its near win over Florida State for the world to see—Notre Dame has a chance to turn heads this week as it heads to Tempe, Arizona.
If Brian Kelly’s team takes down Arizona State, a team the committee is clearly high on, then you can expect the anticipated movement upward to occur. If not, well, then you have permission to riot, Irish faithful.
As it stands, however, don’t view the selection committee's Week 11 conclusion as further disrespect; look at it as an opportunity and a way to make up ground with the bigger picture in sight.
Big Ten Still Waiting, Watching and Hoping
With its most important game on the horizon, the Big Ten is still embracing standing still. This isn’t necessarily a positive or negative, but rather it's a product of the intrigue swarming elsewhere.
Michigan State, No. 8 in the latest rankings, will welcome No. 14 Ohio State this weekend. Ultimately, the team to come away victorious in East Lansing will receive a boost by the committee. If the Spartans win, they will certainly jump past a Big 12 team. TCU and Kansas State—No. 6 and No. 7, respectively—meet up this weekend, which means MSU would have to move up.
A Michigan State victory would also put Mark Dantonio’s team in prime position to slide up further once more chaos comes in front of it, and it will come. An Ohio State victory would make this picture slightly more complicated, although the Buckeyes would undoubtedly begin their late playoff rise.
How high this rise can go depends a great deal on how the committee views OSU’s loss to Virginia Tech, although the perception would certainly start to shift. And with Nebraska very quietly sitting at No. 13 in the latest standings, a meaningful Big Ten Championship could be forming oh so quietly.
If that’s the case, it will serve as a significant boost for the conference when it matters most.
Power-Five Lockout
As you move down Week 11’s College Football Playoff Top 25, you can’t help but notice one glaring trend: The power-five conferences aren’t just in complete control of the postseason as expected; they're also in complete control of all 25 vacancies. There's not a non-power-five team to be found.
East Carolina’s ugly loss at Temple dropped the Pirates out of the Top 25 entirely, which should come as no surprise. It’s moderately surprising, however, that Colorado State (8-1) and Marshall (8-0)—two quality teams with one loss between them—are both still on the outside looking in.
This is significant for a few reasons, and it starts with the obvious: One non-power-five team will play in a marquee bowl when it's all said and done, although the absence of these schools from the latest rankings gives us little idea about which one that would be.
Unless this trend changes, this could stay the case moving forward. Brian Murphy of the Idaho Statesman provided insight, confirmed by the CFB Playoff committee, about what would be released:
"Confirmed with @CFBPlayoff that committee will only release Top 25 tonight, whether or not G5 team is included. Will not give G5 update.
— Brian Murphy (@murphsturph) November 4, 2014"
More significant to this lack of non-power-five schools, however, are the bigger-picture implications. The College Football Playoff didn’t just make life on the little guy harder. With a continued focus on quality wins and strength of schedule, it changed the situation entirely.
The uphill climb for these smaller schools will remain a constant, regardless of timing.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
