Post-Week 10 College Football Playoff Projections from Analytics Guru Ed Feng
After ESPN aired the release of the inaugural College Football Playoff poll, the question on everybody's minds was: What will the rankings look like when they matter on Dec. 7?
My algorithm projects just that in the sortable table above. Now, allow me to explain my rankings...
Why Week 10 Favorites Won't Make the Playoff
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The top three teams in the committee's rankings did not impress this weekend. Perhaps it's a sign that my projections are correct and none of these teams will make the playoff.
Top-ranked Mississippi State has a 27.9 percent chance to make the playoff, only good for eighth-best in the nation. Last week Dan Mullen's squad started the fourth quarter tied with Arkansas.
The Bulldogs survived, but they won't be so lucky against Alabama (30.1 percent win chance) or Ole Miss (45.7 percent win chance), according to my projections.
After a terrible first half on the road against Louisville, second-ranked Florida State looks most vulnerable among these three teams. Both The Power Rank's numbers and likely Vegas, per ESPN Radio host R.J. Bell, peg the Seminoles as an underdog to resurgent Miami on November 15. A one-loss ACC champ will likely be on the outside looking in.
Third-ranked Auburn looked like it surrendered a late lead to Ole Miss when Laquon Treadwell plunged into the end zone. However, replay showed Treadwell had fumbled the ball before crossing the plane, and the Tigers' season was saved.
Auburn has a 29.3 percent chance to make the playoff.
How Does Ole Miss Still Have a Shot?
Ole Miss suffered a crushing 35-31 loss to Auburn on Saturday night. The Rebels dropped from fourth to 11th in the committee rankings. However, the precedent this large drop set might benefit the Rebs in the future.
Let me explain.
The simulation that calculates the playoff probability assumes that a team drops seven spots when it loses. This distribution seems about right after seeing how the committee and The Associated Press poll reacts to losses.
The simulation can also be run with an average drop of four spots. With this smaller drop after a loss, Ole Miss' playoff probability falls from 35.1 percent to 25.8 percent.
It is not out of the question that a two-loss team makes the playoff. As of Week 10, Ole Miss is the highest-ranked two-loss team, and the Rebs are favored in each of their remaining games. According to my stats, they should finish the season 10-2 with victories over Alabama and Mississippi State (54.3 percent win chance).
Of the 10 teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss, three are guaranteed to lose head-to-heads to one another. For example, if sixth-ranked TCU loses to Kansas State this weekend, a seven-spot drop would put the Horned Frogs below Ole Miss.
Hugh Freeze could get the Rebs back in the conversation in late November if a few teams above them lose and they take care of business against Presbyterian, Arkansas and Mississippi State.
Arizona State Is Overrated
The Pac-12 contingent must be winning arguments on this committee.
Arizona State struggled at home against Utah this week. Despite the close game, the Sun Devils jumped Baylor and Notre Dame to land at ninth in the committee rankings. To show the conference bias, TCU won a close game against a ranked team (then-No. 20 West Virginia) on the road but didn't jump any teams.
It's unlikely Arizona State makes the College Football Playoff. The Sun Devils have a 52 percent chance to win at Arizona and then would likely be a big underdog in the Pac-12 title game against Oregon.
For these reasons, my numbers only give the Sun Devils a 5.5 percent chance to end in the Top Four.
Michigan State Love Coming Soon
Poor Sparty. Michigan State had a bye in Week 10, and with no game to review, the committee moved Kansas State, which convincingly beat Oklahoma State, ahead of MSU.
This is most likely an indictment of the Big Ten. Michigan State has the 65th-ranked strength of schedule by The Power Rank, and it lost to its top-ranked opponent (Oregon).
However, my numbers like this Michigan State team. To go with its traditionally strong defense, the Spartan offense has risen to seventh in yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule, one of the factors in The Power Rank's game predictions.
Michigan State has a 70.5 percent chance to beat Ohio State at home this weekend, and that's its toughest game before the Big Ten championship. My algorithm thinks a one-loss Big Ten champion still looks pretty good.
The Spartans' 41.0 percent chance to make the playoff is third-best in the nation.
Ed Feng founded The Power Rank and has also written for Grantland and Sports Illustrated. Follow him on Twitter @thepowerrank.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
