Dallas Mavericks Already Flashing Explosive Offensive Potential
When the Dallas Mavericks scooped up Chandler Parsons with a massive three-year, $46 million offer (with a gaudy $16 million player option for year three, according to ShamSports.com), the team's offensive ceiling was raised a few notches.
Through four games, the Mavericks appear determined to shatter that ceiling.
After holding on to defeat the Boston Celtics, 118-113, Monday night, the Mavericks (3-1) now own the league's most efficient offense by a fairly sizable margin.
According to NBA.com, Dallas entered Tuesday night with an offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) of 118.1, 4.2 points better than the Brooklyn Nets' No. 2-ranked unit.
Drag on and on about small sample sizes all you want, but the fact of the matter is head coach Rick Carlisle has quickly tweaked his offense to accentuate Parsons' positive attributes while crafting Dirk Nowitzki into an efficient scoring machine.
With Dallas able to spread the floor in ways that were previously unimaginable, Nowitzki has been free to pick his spots and knock down shots at a 57.9 percent clip from the field. He's also drilling 42.9 percent of his threes.
That production hasn't come from classically efficient spots either.
While Houston Rockets shooting guard James Harden continues to post eye-popping numbers despite owning a sub-optimal field-goal percentage thanks to repeated three-point attempts and trips to the free-throw line, Nowitzki has gashed opponents with an entirely different weapon: mid-range expertise.
According to NBA.com, 36 of Nowitzki's 57 field-goal attempts thus far have come between 16-24 feet. He's converted 23 (63.9 percent) of them.
As a result, 52.6 percent of Nowitzki's total attempts have come via catch-and-shoot opportunities while another 33.3 percent have come in the form of pull-up jump shots.
Following Monday's win, ESPN Dallas' Tim Macmahon provided numbers reinforcing the notion that Carlisle's offense has helped Nowitzki become even more efficient:
"According to NBA.com’s player-tracking data, 22.8 percent of Nowitzki’s shots this season have been wide-open (no defender within 6 feet) and 33.3 percent have been open (defender between 4 to 6 feet away). Those numbers compared very favorably to last season, when 15.7 percent of his shots were wide-open and 30.2 percent were open.
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Nowitzki also touched on his redefined role after scoring 27 points on 9-of-14 shooting (4-of-4 from three), according to MacMahon:
"I’m there to space the floor. I get occasional post-ups here and there, but I feel like I don’t have to grind that much. When we do get our stops, we feel like that’s an easy way to play. That’s a fun way to play where everybody’s touching it, we’re cutting, we’re moving, we’re pick-and-rolling and rolling to the basket and getting some lobs, getting open shots.”
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However, this hasn't been all about the potential for Nowitzki's ultra-efficient renaissance at age 36.
While the German marksman has been a primary benefactor of the retooled scheme, Dallas currently leads the league with a field-goal percentage of 52.4 while knocking down 39.1 percent of its threes.
Spreading the wealth has been the hallmark of Dallas' early-season success, and it's resulted in five Mavericks players averaging double figures in the scoring column.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Dallas also boasts three players (Nowitzki, Parsons and Monta Ellis) with usage rates higher than 23.0 percent.
And since Ellis and Parsons have been doing heavy work off the dribble, defenses have had no choice but to collapse when they've sliced into the paint.
According to Basketball-Reference, both Parsons and Ellis have attempted a plurality of their shots within three feet, a trend that has helped facilitate open looks for Nowitzki, Jameer Nelson and the rest of Dallas' perimeter weapons.
What's frightening is just how much room exists for growth.
As Mavstats noted on Twitter, Monday marked the third straight game in which Dallas bludgeoned an opponent in the first half:
But despite shellacking opponents to the tune of 63.8 points per game in the first half, Dallas' margin of victory sits at 6.8, behind the Nets, Miami Heat, Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors after some horrific third-quarter performances.
Per MacMahon, Dallas is being outscored by 47 points in the third frame:
After nearly blowing a 31-point lead against the Celtics, Carlisle made it clear that his team will need to play with equal energy in both halves.
"They came right at us and we didn’t do a good job," Carlisle told reporters, according to the Star Telegram's Dwain Price. "So we’re going to have to play better, and our guys know that.’’
And if the club's second-half efficiency ticks up in the coming months, it will be easier to live with a defense that's currently hemorrhaging 112.7 points per 100 possessions.
Regardless of those struggles, though, early returns suggest Dallas will be a force to be reckoned with.
Possessing the pieces necessary to infiltrate the Western Conference title conversation, the Mavericks' potent offense may prove capable of writing a code that's too complex for opponents to crack.
All statistics courtesy of NBA.com and current as of Nov. 4 unless noted otherwise.
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