Power Ranking 2014 College Football Coach of the Year Candidates
Being named the Associated Press Coach of the Year has been a blessing and a curse.
Obviously, it means one's team has enjoyed a fine season, and that one's work has not gone unnoticed. But the last four AP Coaches of the Year—Gus Malzahn, Brian Kelly, Les Miles and Chip Kelly—lost the national title game soon after receiving their award.
Has any coach done enough to break the trend this season? That is, can anyone both make and win the national title? Does a team even have to be in the College Football Playoff discussion for its coach to be considered a viable contender?
All this and more is…not what this article is after. Not directly, at least.
Instead, this article lists my own hypothetical ballot after 10 weeks. It is not a projection of where each team is going or who stands the best chance of actually winning. It's a judgement on where I think each coach belongs if the season ended today.
The main thing I was looking for was success relative to expectation and talent. I do not have any sort of algorithm to measure that, so in the end it came down to a subjective call.
Who has done the most with the least?
First Five Out
1 of 9
Steve Addazio, Boston College
Boston College lost a lot from last year's team, chief among it Heisman finalist Andre Williams at running back. For the Eagles to be bowl-eligible after 10 weeks with a win over USC says a lot about the sustainability of the program Steve Addazio is building.
P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan
What a turnaround! Western Michigan finished No. 117 in the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders last season, but this year it's all the way up to No. 57—tops in the MAC. P.J. Fleck is only 33 years old and might soon be one of the hottest young names in coaching.
Justin Fuente, Memphis
Justin Fuente took over at Memphis in 2012 on the heels of 2-10, 1-11 and 2-10 records the three prior seasons. He had the Tigers playing respectable ball in his first two years (7-17 combined) but really turned the corner with this current iteration, which is 5-3 despite briefly losing star defensive lineman Martin Ifedi to an injury.
Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia
West Virginia has three losses, but those losses have come to a pair of playoff contenders (Alabama and TCU) and a team ranked No. 6 in the F/+ ratings (Oklahoma). Dana Holgorsen entered the year on the hot seat but has more than just played his way off of it: He has played his way into the coach of the year discussion.
Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
Rich Rodriguez lost a senior quarterback (B.J. Denker) and an All-American running back (Kadeem Carey) from last year's team but somehow has this year's group playing better. And he's done it despite relying heavily on underclassmen to replace those pieces. The Wildcats lasted 10 weeks in the playoff race before losing their second game at UCLA, and they might be ripe to last longer in 2015.
8. Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss
2 of 9
Ole Miss is 7-2. Its only two losses came by the slimmest of margins: three points at LSU two weeks ago and four points (and one tragic yard) against Auburn last weekend. It is one play here or there from being 9-0 and most likely ranked No. 1 in the CFP standings.
In that case, Hugh Freeze probably would have topped this list. That Ole Miss lost those games is enough to bump Freeze down to No. 8, but he shouldn't be docked too hard for "one play here or there."
Freeze has built one of the best defenses in the country and an offense good enough to weather the storm when good Bo Wallace becomes Mr. Hyde.
Ole Miss is the highest-ranked two-loss team in the country.
7. Sonny Dykes, California
3 of 9
Matt Brown of Sports on Earth wrote earlier this season that "Cal hiring Sonny Dykes was the best thing that could have happened to late-night weird Pac-12 football."
It was also the best thing that could have happened to Cal.
That did not appear to be the case after Dykes' first season, during which the Bears went 1-11 and finished No. 103 in the F/+ ratings. But Dykes in year two has turned Cal into exactly what the school had hoped: a rich man's version of Louisiana Tech in 2012.
The Bears beat Oregon State 45-31 last week and are 5-4 with three games remaining. If they can mine one win out of a road trip to USC and home games against Stanford and BYU, they will make a bowl game.
With quarterback Jared Goff, all four of the team's leading running backs, all nine of the team's leading wide receivers and three of last week's starting offensive linemen all slated to return next season, bowling in 2014 might be the start of something much, much bigger.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
6. Jim McElwain, Colorado State
4 of 9
Jim McElwain has engineered a quick reversal of fate in Fort Collins. He took over at Colorado State in 2012 after three straight 3-9 seasons but led the Rams to a wild bowl win over Washington State in his second year.
His third year, however, has seen the Rams go from Mountain West upstart to Mountain West juggernaut. They are 8-1 with wins over Colorado and Boston College and rank No. 26 in the latest Associated Press poll.
Because it lost head-to-head against Boise State, which also has one MWC loss, Colorado State does not control its own fate in its division or conference. It cannot make an access bowl as the highest-ranked group-of-five champion unless the Broncos lose another game.
If they do, though, 12-1 Colorado State could make an interesting case for ranking higher than undefeated Marshall. If that is how this plays out, expect for McElwain, Nick Saban's former offensive coordinator at Alabama, to be a hot name on the carousel this winter.
5. Brian Kelly, Notre Dame
5 of 9
The job Brian Kelly has done extends far past Notre Dame's record: an impressive 7-1 with a down-to-the-wire loss at Florida State.
It is more about the storm he has weathered.
Five key players—chief among them projected top receiver DaVaris Daniels and projected top cornerback KeiVarae Russell—were suspended for academic reasons during the middle of fall practice, throwing Notre Dame's plans for the season out of orbit. At that point, it would have been easy for the Irish to fold.
Instead of folding, though, they have rallied around their head coach and played even better than expected. Have they played as well as their current ranking? No, not in my opinion. But that they have only one loss and will almost definitely make the playoff if they finish the season without another says a lot about the job Kelly has done.
If Notre Dame goes 11-1, he will deserve at least some sort of award.
4. Gary Patterson, TCU
6 of 9
Gary Patterson made this list 11 months ago.
Sensing a systemic trend in college football, he decided this his old mode of offense—a pro-style, grind-out-wins methodology—had to go, so he hired a pair of proven spread offensive coordinators in Sonny Cumbie and Doug Meacham.
"I think with this offense, it evens the playing field," Patterson said this offseason, per Mike Heika of The Dallas Morning News. "I think both at Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, where [Meacham and Cumbie] came from, they did it where people didn’t think you could do it. They’ve both been successful at it, doing more with less."
To say people "didn't think TCU could do it" this offseason seems apt. It was coming off a 4-8 season in which current quarterback Trevone Boykin played so poorly he was moved to (and looked far more natural at) wide receiver. There was no reason sans the new coordinators to think this team might suddenly turn great.
Ten weeks into the season, the Horned Frogs are 7-1 and ranked No. 6 in the CFP standings. They are No. 2 in the country in points scored per game (48.0). The coordinator switch went better than anyone could have hoped, and Patterson has supplemented the offense with one of his patented, aggressive, turnover-happy defenses.
He has been nothing short of brilliant all season.
3. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern
7 of 9
Georgia Southern has been one of the best stories in the country this season, no matter that you haven't paid attention.
First-year head coach Willie Fritz has the Eagles at the top of the Sun Belt with a 7-2 overall record and an undefeated run in conference play. Their only two losses came by one point at NC State in Week 1 and four points at Georgia Tech in Week 3. If not for late comebacks, they would be 9-0 with a pair of road wins over ACC teams.
Did we mention they're in the first year of an FBS transition?
Seriously: That's the truth. And it holds true for both team and coach. Georgia Southern is the FCS team that upset Florida last season, and Fritz is coming over from FCS power Sam Houston State.
Because of that transition, however, the Eagles are not eligible to play in the postseason. That is a shame not just because it deprives them of playing in any bowl game but because it deprives them from being discussed as a sneaky contender for an access bowl.
GSU ranks No. 46 on the F/+ ratings, trailing only No. 25 Marshall, No. 31 Boise State and No. 32 Colorado State from the group-of-five conferences. They are the only team on that list, sans undefeated Marshall, that has not lost to another group-of-five school.
Sign the change.org petition to get Fritz's team bowl-eligible here!
2. Bill Snyder, Kansas State
8 of 9
There is nothing new to say about Bill Snyder. Everything pithy and useful that can be already has been. Former Oklahoma head coach Barry Switzer put it best a few years back, saying of Snyder, "He's not the coach of the year, he's not the coach of the decade, he's the coach of the century!" per Mark Janssen (via ESPN.com).
And this might be his best coaching job to date.
Kansas State is 7-1 and ranked No. 7 in the CFP standings. The only thing that separates it from a perfect record and a spot in the top four is a comedy of unforced errors against Auburn. If not for a few shanks by kicker Jack Cantele or a drop-turned-interception-turned-touchback by receiver Tyler Lockett, that is where it would be.
Regardless, Snyder has coached his team of walk-ons and JUCO transfers to a point where if they beat TCU this weekend they are still firmly in play for the playoff. They might even be considered favorites—not to win it, of course, but to finish 11-1 and get there.
Although who in their right mind would ever bet against a wizard?
1. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
9 of 9
Best not to overthink this.
Until Mississippi State loses a game, every Coach of the Year honor is Dan Mullen's to lose. His team was unranked and received just 22 votes in the preseason AP poll. (Florida, by contrast, received 87.)
Now his team is No. 1 in the country.
Mullen didn't enter this year on the hot seat, but neither did he enter on a cold one. If not for a late push to make a bowl game last season, he might have been coaching for his job in 2014.
As it happens, the way he's coached this year might be enough that he leaves Starkville in 2015 anyway. Only this time, it wouldn't be because of a firing or any sort of failure to meet benchmarks.
It would be because some other (bigger) school wants him.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
