Bowl Predictions 2014: Updated Playoff Projections Before Critical Week 11
Let your couch cushions know that you plan on getting very familiar with them on Saturday.
The Week 11 college football slate features six marquee contests that will shape the College Football Playoff discussion for the rest of the season. There will be teams eliminated from competition with losses on Saturday, but the winners will make a loud statement to the selection committee with a month remaining in the season.
Among the Saturday showdowns are clashes between Ohio State and Michigan State, Oregon and Utah, Alabama and LSU, Arizona State and Notre Dame, Kansas State and TCU and Oklahoma and Baylor.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
November is when the pressure really sets in on the college football calendar, and we will see which teams are capable of delivering in the clutch on Saturday.
The College Football Playoff projections will likely look different after such a loaded week of games, but here is a look at where they stand now.
Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State
Rose Bowl: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal Winners)
Florida State already won its difficult games on the schedule. The Seminoles are going to win out and will have the opportunity to defend their national title.
Alabama is hitting its stride as it enters November, and the Crimson Tide will also win out and clinch the SEC title. That will get Nick Saban’s team into the field of four.
Mississippi State’s only loss will be to Alabama, and wins against SEC heavyweights like Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss will get the Bulldogs into the playoffs.
Michigan State will knock Ohio State out of the national title race for the second consecutive season and win the Big Ten. The Spartans will benefit from a number of losses in the Big 12, Pac-12 and from Notre Dame down the stretch and seize one of those coveted four spots.
Under-the-Radar Week 11 Game to Watch: Oregon at Utah
While the lion’s share of the college football attention will be directed toward games in the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 on Saturday, the late-night showdown between Oregon and Utah in the Pac-12 figures to be just as entertaining and important in the College Football Playoffs race.
The Utes may be eliminated from postseason consideration with two losses, but the Ducks are right in the thick of it. However, a second loss of the season on Saturday would prove crippling to their playoff chances.
The critical matchup in this one features the Oregon offense against the stout Utah defense.
Oregon brings a balanced and intimidating offensive attack to the table on Saturday. It is 16th in the nation in passing yards per game and 25th in rushing yards per game, and quarterback Marcus Mariota is on the short list of everyone’s Heisman contenders with 2,541 passing yards, 410 rushing yards and 33 total touchdowns.
Mariota makes plays with his arms and legs and has come through in the clutch for the Ducks in tense moments against UCLA, Washington State, Michigan State and Stanford. The defense has to constantly focus on Mariota and preventing his big-play abilities, which opens up the field for the running backs and wide receivers to make plays in space.
However, the Utah defense means this will be a strength-against-strength matchup.
The Utes have three players among the Pac-12’s top six in tackles for loss and have yet to give up 30 points in a single game this season, which is an impressive accomplishment in the quarterback-loaded Pac-12. Utah is giving up 21.3 points a game and will challenge Mariota and the Ducks.
Hans Olsen of 1280 The Zone and Football Writers Association of America member Patrick Schmidt believe the Utah defense will have a big impact on this game:
Utah will be motivated after a heartbreaking loss to Arizona State with a chance to make a national statement against one of the most respected programs in the country. What’s more, the crowd should be rocking under the lights, which could influence Oregon’s up-tempo offense.
Oregon coach Mark Helfrich certainly thinks the crowd could be a problem, via Gary Horowitz of the Statesman Journal, “You have to be on point in every phase to get it done. We’re going to a very hostile environment against a very good team.”
Ultimately, the problem for the Utes will be scoring the ball.
They are 111th in the nation in passing yards per game at 175.3, and things look even worse after leading receiver Dres Anderson was lost for the season with a knee injury. The Utes will rely on their rushing attack behind Devontae Booker, who is second in the Pac-12 with 123.8 yards per game.
Oregon’s defense struggled against California two games ago, but it redeemed itself against Stanford. The Golden Bears exploited the Ducks through the air, while the Cardinal rely on the run. Oregon is beatable if you bring a solid passing attack to the table, but Utah does not.
The Utes will contain the Ducks’ offensive attack for most of the game, but they won’t be able to score enough points to come away with the win.
You can only ask so much of the defense against Mariota and Oregon, and the Ducks will eventually break through for a decisive touchdown late in the game. Oregon will be tested, but it will do enough to win and maintain its inside position for a College Football Playoff spot.
Prediction: Oregon 31, Utah 17
Follow me on Twitter:
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
