Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills return from their bye week on Sunday to host a hot Kansas City Chiefs team that rides a three-game winning streak into Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Chiefs have won and covered the spread in their last three games, while the Bills are looking to extend their winning streak to three following a 43-23 rout of the New York Jets two weeks ago as three-point road underdogs.

Point spread: Chiefs opened as two-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.2-24.2 Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Outside of the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City is one of the hottest teams in the AFC right now and actually has a better point differential than the Denver Broncos at plus-62. The Chiefs are 2-2 on the road this season straight up and 3-1 against the spread, with both of their losses decided by a touchdown or less.

They beat another AFC East team on the road in the Miami Dolphins, 34-15, back in Week 3, starting a stretch of five wins in six games. Kansas City is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven games and 6-1 versus the line in its past seven as a road favorite.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings with the Chiefs and 6-1 versus the line in the past seven. The Bills have split the last two games between the teams at Ralph Wilson Stadium over the past couple years after winning two of three at Arrowhead Stadium in what has been an annual matchup since 2008. Buffalo will be coming off a bye and has thrived in that situation at home, going 8-3 ATS in its last 11.

The Bills needed the extra time off to try to get healthy, especially at the running back position, where C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson were each lost due to injuries. While Spiller and Jackson are not expected back soon, their replacements, Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon, should be better prepared to handle a bigger load and help balance out the offense.

Smart pick

This is a huge game for both Kansas City and Buffalo, who are chasing two of the AFC’s best in their own divisions in the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, respectively. Neither the Chiefs nor the Bills are expected to beat out the Broncos and Patriots this year, but they are battling each other for potential wild-card playoff spots down the road.

Buffalo is 8-3 versus the line in its last 11 games as a home underdog, which is significant here when you add in the team’s success as the host off a bye. Kansas City is a good team but has gone 4-9 ATS in its past 13 games against AFC East opponents, going 2-8 SU in the last 10 on the road. The Bills should be primed to earn another cover as a home dog and pull off the upset victory.

Betting trends

• Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games
• Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing at home against Kansas City

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.