Luis Abregu vs. Sadam Ali: Preview and Prediction for Welterweight Bout

Saturday night in Atlantic City, veteran welterweight contender Luis Abregu will face off with undefeated former Olympian Sadam Ali. This bout will be the co-main event on the Bernard Hopkins vs. Sergey Kovalev card. 

Both of these fighters are outside of the top 10, but this is a high-profile fight, and the winner will see his career take an important bump.

For Abregu, it's the opportunity he has been waiting on. For the unbeaten Ali, it's a test he will need to pass if he wants to move up the ladder. 

Tale of the Tape

Per Boxrec	Luis Abregu	Sadam Ali
Record:	36-1, 29 KOs	20-0, 12 KOs
Height:	5'10"	5'9"
Reach:	72"	73"
Weight:	147 lbs	147 lbs
Age:	30	26
Stance:	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown:	Salta, Argentina	Brooklyn, N.Y.
Rounds:	175	90

This is Sadam Ali's first real step up to world-class competition, though at 26, he's not exactly a kid. He's the younger, less experienced fighter, but at age 30, Abregu is still very much in his prime. 

The height and weight are close here. A Brooklyn native, Ali will be fighting relatively nearby in Atlantic City. 

Main Storylines

In my book, Luis Abregu is one of the most underrated fighters in boxing. His only loss came against Timothy Bradley by decision, when he was fighting with an injured hand. In his last trip to the United States, in 2012, he beat up undefeated phenom Thomas Dulorme and stopped him in Round 7.

He's being cast in a similar role for this fight as he was for the one with Dulorme. He's the tough veteran being put up as an opponent for the undefeated, potential star.

Sadam Ali is a Brooklyn native and a 2008 Olympian. Those are good ingredients for building up a draw in boxing, but the fact that Ali has been a pro since 2009 and is only just now stepping up to the world-class level is a red flag to me.

Ali was hardly impressive in his last fight, a split-decision win over Jeremy Bryan in August. Bryan is a light welterweight who has been knocked out three times—and not even by big-name fighters.

Ali was fighting on a big card at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, so maybe he had some jitters that prevented him from putting together a sustained offensive performance. If he can take it up a notch and get by Abregu, he'll have a lot of eyes on him heading into next year.

But that's one gigantic "if." Abregu is levels better than Bryan. To win, Ali is going to have to look like a completely different fighter than he did three months ago.  

Strengths

Douglas Healey/Associated Press

Luis Abregu is a rugged boxer-brawler. He has solid technical skill, but like so many of his fellow Argentine boxers, he can dig in and mix it up.

Abregu has a great sense of distance and does a particularly good job at fading out of range of his opponents' attacks, then following their hands back in and counterattacking with aggression. He has fight-changing power in his right hand.

Sadam Ali has quick feet and good movement. He has very good length and uses it well.

His lead left hook is a dangerous punch. He can check an opponent's aggression with it and also use it to end a fight.

Weaknesses

Luis Abregu started slowly against Thomas Dulorme in his Round 7 TKO victory over the previously unbeaten fighter. That may have been nothing more than a tactical choice while he studied out how to break Dulorme down.

Either way, he's going to want to be careful about giving away too many rounds early against Sadam Ali.

Sadam Ali did not look comfortable for much of his last fight with Jeremy Bryan, a fighter who demonstrated no particular respect for Ali's pedigree or natural talent. A lot of talented amateurs fail to translate well to the much rougher pro game.

I don't like the way Ali gets lazy about returning his lead hook, either. I can see Abregu countering over the top of that with his straight right all night long.

Luis Abregu Will Win If...

Luis Abregu is going to need to watch out for Sadam Ali's lead hook while also looking for the opportunity to counter over the top of it with his right hand. Abregu will need to be ready to lower his level or shift back out of range.

Abregu wants to control the rhythm of this fight and make it a bruising war that is contested in the trenches. Abregu should try to rough up Ali early and get him to doubt himself as the long, grueling seconds of each round tick away.  

Abregu should pound at Ali's torso to slow down his ability to move well. If the Argentine can control the tempo and press Ali with erratic flurries and punches from odd angles, he should be able to push the young fighter well out of his comfort zone and force him to make poor decisions.

When Abregu can force Ali into wild, frantic exchanges, he should look for the opportunity to come over the top of Ali's lead hook with his own big right.

Sadam Ali Will Win If...

USA TODAY Sports

To win this fight, Ali is going to need to box cleanly on the outside. But when Luis Abregu presses the action, Ali has to be prepared to remain comfortable as he holds his ground.

A lot of Ali's success in this fight is going to hinge upon how he uses his lead hook. If he can time it correctly to check Abregu's forward aggression and then circle away and engage again before Abregu is set, he will have a great chance to win.

But if he is sloppy with the hook, Abregu will avoid it and counter hard over the top with his right hand.

Ali is going to need to fight tough and smart for all 10 rounds against a veteran like Abregu. A mental mistake or a moment of passivity could both spell complete disaster for him in this fight.   

Prediction

Sadam Ali is not as technically skilled or athletically gifted as Thomas Dulorme. And Luis Abregu took Dulorme apart.

I also don't think a fighter who struggled to win a split decision three months ago against a fighter like Jeremy Bryan is prepared to step up and take on a veteran as talented as Abregu.

I'll be very surprised if Abregu does not win this fight inside of eight rounds. Ali might win a round or two early, but Abregu will figure out his rhythm and then disrupt it. Abregu will rough Ali up and send him packing for an early night.

I am hoping this will finally mean that we start seeing more of Abregu in the United States. The welterweight division is a crowded field, but there should be room enough for a fighter like Abregu.