Bowl Projections 2014: Predictions for College Football Playoff Semifinals

Each week of the college football season brings plenty of surprises, but none of it really matters until the end of the year.

The new College Football Playoff system has kept more fans interested in the process than ever before, which has led to plenty of complaining over rankings. However, it matters a lot more where the teams sit in the final Dec. 7 standings compared to anything in October or November.

Everything that happens from this point forward is significant, which means predicting outcomes is just as important as analyzing past results. Instead of wondering which teams will be in the playoff if the season ended today, here are projections for the two semifinal matchups (Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl) at the end of the year.

Sugar Bowl	No. 1 Florida State	No. 4 TCU
Rose Bowl	No. 2 Alabama	No. 3 Oregon

The first thing most people will notice in this list is that it only features a single SEC team. This would be a bit of a surprise considering how dominant the conference has been all year, especially the West division.

When the first set of playoff standings were released, three teams fit into the top four spots, while Alabama was not far behind at No. 6. However, Nick Saban said it best at the time, via Michael Casagrande of Al.com:

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To me, none of it matters. What does it matter? I mean, it only matters where you end up at the end. So what matters to us is how we do in each and every game that we have to play. We have four games left to play, and if we can be successful in those games, maybe there's a chance we will play in the SEC Championship Game as well.

"

Ole Miss already learned this lesson after losses to Auburn and LSU. Despite having the No. 1 defense in the country, the squad will have a tough time playing its way back into the playoff.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State and Auburn still have difficult schedules ahead, including a road battle at Alabama for each team. The Bulldogs also have to travel to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, while the Tigers have to face Georgia on the road plus play a home game against Texas A&M.

As good as each of these teams have been to start the year, it will be difficult to win out, and any loss could result in elimination from contention.

On the other hand, the biggest mark against Alabama has been a lack of quality wins, as Dan Wolken of USA Today argues:

However, this will not be a problem with upcoming home games against the No. 1 and No. 3 teams in the nation. The only road game remaining is Saturday against LSU, which Alabama goes into as a 6.5-point favorite, according to Odds Shark.

With the No. 2 scoring defense in the country and a quarterback in Blake Sims who has seven touchdowns and no interceptions in the last three weeks, the Crimson Tide have what it takes to win the SEC title.

As the rest of the SEC teams suffer losses, it will be difficult to put them over the rest of the field.

Florida State should earn its spot as long as it remains undefeated. This should not be hard with a relatively easy schedule going forward. Andrew Siciliano of NFL Network summed up the last win perfectly as the Seminoles came back from down 21-0 to win:

Although Florida State might not be as good as it was last year, all it needs to do is avoid losses and it will be in the playoff.

Oregon should be able to join these teams after getting over its biggest mental hump in Stanford. The Ducks lost the last two years to the Cardinal, but Marcus Mariota was fantastic yet again to get his team to 8-1.

Games at Utah and Oregon State, along with a potential Pac-12 Championship Game, could represent a challenge, but Oregon is the most talented team in the conference and should be able to come through with a win.

TCU might be the most surprising one on the list, but the Big 12 squad has been outstanding this year with the No. 2 scoring offense in the country at 48 points per game.

The Horned Frogs already have wins over three ranked teams this year and almost earned a fourth in Baylor until it blew a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter. Despite a tough schedule, they still have a good chance to keep winning, according to ESPN:

It will not be easy beating Kansas State, but the team could be home free if it earns a win. The resume at the end of the year should be enough to earn a spot in the playoffs.

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