Bowl Projections 2014: Predicting Biggest Postseason Matchups Going into Week 11
Is the bowl discussion starting already? Where did the college football season go?
Every year, college football fans have debated which schools most deserve a shot at the national championship. And rather than stifling the discussion, the implementation of the four-team College Football Playoff has only opened the door for more teams, thus bringing more fans into the fold.
With the new playoff, bowl bids are a bit different. For those unaware of the how the system works, ESPN.com's Brett McMurphy penned a handy breakdown back in May.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Obviously, the Big Ten and Pac-12 champions won't be playing in the Rose Bowl, just as the SEC and Big 12 champions won't battle in the Sugar Bowl.
This year, the Orange Bowl is the only one of the six New Year's Day bowls to have any sort of conference tie-in. The selection committee is responsible for figuring out the remaining bowl games, which creates a ton of possibilities. As McMurphy wrote, "Bowls can no longer skip teams in the rankings to pick a lower-ranked team that travels better."
Sugar Bowl (No. 1 Seed vs. No. 4 Seed)
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Oregon Ducks
Having stumped for TCU over the last few weeks, I'm coming around on the Oregon Ducks. The totality of their 45-16 win over Stanford has them jumping ahead of the Horned Frogs. The Cardinal offense might be a complete disaster, but dropping 45 points on their defense can't be ignored.
As long as Oregon runs the table—which it should do, based on Saturday's victory—it will have the fourth seed in the playoff at the very least.
The Ducks have a nearly 41 percent chance of winning out, per ESPN College Football:
One could argue that Florida State deserves the top spot right now, but if Mississippi State goes unbeaten, it will firmly jump ahead of the Seminoles. The Bulldogs still have to play Alabama, Ole Miss and potentially the SEC East champion.
If they can do all of that, they'll be the unquestioned No. 1 team in the country.
Rose Bowl (No. 2 Seed vs. No. 3 Seed)
Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers
The closest thing to a lock in the playoff is Florida State.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher discussed how winning a national title last year has only enlarged the bull's-eye on FSU's back, per ESPN.com's Andrea Adelson:
"Last year, the championship game, that was a big turning point. We’re a different team because people look at us differently. Last year, we were the team that was trying to climb, so sometimes they know you’re a good team, but when you’ve won a championship and you’re winning the way we’re winning now, people are going to give you their A-game. They’re going to come prepared, and our kids are learning to do that and learning to persevere in those situations.
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The 'Noles could trip up against Florida at the end of the regular season or against Duke in the ACC championship, but all signs point to them finishing in the top four.
While Florida State is a veritable guarantee, the fourth and final spot remains a massive unknown. Some would argue that one conference shouldn't send two teams to the playoff, because it defeats the idea of deciding things on the field.
However, should Auburn wind up with one loss and lose the SEC West, the Tigers would warrant inclusion. While they wouldn't have won their conference, they would have run a tougher gauntlet than either TCU/Kansas State or Ohio State/Michigan State.
Auburn's biggest remaining hurdles are Ole Miss and Alabama. The Rebels will be weaker after Laquon Treadwell's injury, so the Tigers' fate will likely hinge on the Iron Bowl, and after last year's incredible finish, nothing is sacred in that rivalry.
Cotton Bowl
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Michigan State Spartans
This would be a nice matchup of two one-loss teams spurned by the selection committee and thus motivated to make a statement following their respective slights. TCU and Michigan State are also two aesthetically different teams, which would lead to a nice clash of styles on the field.
The Horned Frogs and the Spartans are right on the fringe and stand to benefit the most in the event the SEC sends only one team to the playoff.
As alluded to earlier, a one-loss Auburn team would have a stronger resume than either Big Ten champion Michigan State or Big 12 champion TCU.
It may not send a good message to send two teams from the same division into the playoff, but if the playoff is truly for the four best teams in the country, the Tigers would deserve to be there.
Orange Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Barring an unforeseen catastrophe, the Orange Bowl will be selecting the second-best team in the ACC. Right now, that would be the Duke Blue Devils, but by the time all is said and done, it will likely be the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson's toughest remaining game is against South Carolina, which looks easier and easier with each passing week and won't affect the Tigers' standing in the ACC. One-half of the Orange Bowl looks set.
The other spot is reserved for the Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC. If the SEC sends two teams to the playoff, then Notre Dame will be the strongest bet for the Orange Bowl.
The Fighting Irish's schedule looked daunting before the season but has gotten weaker as the season has unfolded. They're unlikely to make a strong enough case for the playoff even if they go 11-1 during the regular season.
Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Holy Joe Germaine and Jake Plummer!
Ohio State and Arizona State have met exactly twice, with the last meeting coming in the 1997 Rose Bowl. Plummer put the Sun Devils ahead 17-14 with an 11-yard touchdown run with one minute, 40 seconds left in the game. Then, Germaine led the Buckeyes down the field and found David Boston in the end zone for the winning touchdown 20 seconds from the final whistle.
It's not like these two schools have any sort of heated rivalry, but that '97 Rose Bowl would add a nice backdrop for a potential New Year's Day meeting between the two teams.
It would also be an opportunity for Ohio State and Arizona State to test themselves outside of the conference. The Buckeyes' biggest nonconference game of the season was an upset at the hands of Virginia Tech, while the same fate could befall the Sun Devils when they take on Notre Dame.
The winner could use the Fiesta Bowl as a springboard going into 2015.
Peach Bowl
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
It will be interesting to see who gets paired with the highest mid-major champion. The selection committee can't stick two lesser-regarded schools together; that could be a ratings disaster. However, the committee also doesn't want to make the matchup too one-sided, or fans will turn the channel after one or two quarters.
On paper, Alabama and Marshall aren't really close.
The Crimson Tide are one of the most talented teams in the country, while the Thundering Herd haven't proved themselves against any opponent of note. Their strength of schedule is a major albatross around their neck:
But it would be nice to see Rakeem Cato tested against the Tide defense. He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and he'd have a chance to display his talent to a national audience.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
