Full New England Patriots Report Card Heading into Week 10 Bye
It's hard to envision a team experiencing a greater first-half split than the New England Patriots. The Pats have occupied both extremes of the national perception, moving from a washed-up dilapidated dynasty to the consensus Super Bowl favorite after five consecutive wins.
Thus, while the first nine weeks have not presented the Patriots' customary consistency, the 7-2 record leaves New England in familiar position with seven regular-season games remaining. Despite stiffer division competition and a quietly improving AFC, the Pats still look like top favorites, along with the Denver Broncos, to represent the conference in Super Bowl XLIX.
Of course, as the past 10 seasons have illustrated, earning that elusive fourth Lombardi Trophy is anything but a given, despite New England's impeccable form over the past month. In looking back at the Patriots' first half, it is instructive not only to evaluate past performance but also to identify future roles and questions that will shape the second half's complexion.
Note that this evaluation is weighted more toward the recent games, as the personnel and schemes from those contests are more relevant moving forward. Breaking things down position by position, let's take a comprehensive look at the state of the Patriots at the bye.
Quarterback
1 of 10
No player has embodied the Patriots' turnaround more than Tom Brady. The future Hall of Famer has never faced more scrutiny after a wretched opening month, but a blistering five-game stretch has suddenly vaulted Brady to the forefront of the MVP discussion.
It's hard to remember the last time a quarterback exhibited similar splits as Brady has over the first two months. The numbers really are astounding—after completing just 59.1 percent of his passes for a meager 5.77 yards per attempt in September, Brady's completion percentage has skyrocketed to 68.9 percent in the five games since. Along with 8.1 yards per attempt and 14 touchdowns to one interception, Brady essentially leads every major passing category since October.
The key has partially been in his supporting cast, as Rob Gronkowski's return to full speed coupled with the offensive line's stability has certainly aided Brady. Nonetheless, Brady's improved accuracy and pocket comfort has equally aided New England's offensive resurgence, as his rapport with Brandon LaFell has opened up access to the perimeter. Increased play-action usage has also kept defenses off balance early, as Brady's completion percentage is 9.4 percent higher on play action versus regular dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
It's hard to envision Brady maintaining this pace, even by his lofty standards. The last time he experienced a similarly incendiary streak was back in 2012, when he threw for 14 touchdowns and no interceptions during a five-game winning streak. Brady will experience a small dip at some point, but as he has proven over the past month, any decline should be considered a blip rather than a long-term issue.
Grade: A-
Running Back
2 of 10
Stevan Ridley's season-ending ACL tear had the potential to submarine this group. Unlike last season, when LeGarrette Blount seamlessly replaced Ridley after a bout of fumblitis, the Pats had no natural power back replacement for their starter in 2014.
Nonetheless, the Pats have survived in Ridley's absence, though it would be inaccurate to suggest that they have thrived. Fellow fourth-year back Shane Vereen has seen an uptick in snaps since Ridley's Week 6 injuries, playing 65.5 percent of the snaps over the past three games. Some of that is game plan-oriented—the Pats were in spread personnel for most of the Denver game, for example—but it is clear that the Patriots are leaning toward more shotgun utilization, regardless of whether they roll out three receivers or two tight ends. Consequently, Vereen should set a new career high in snaps by season's end.
Surprisingly, preseason afterthought Jonas Gray has tapped in for Ridley on early downs. Gray had a solid game against Chicago, rushing for 86 yards on 17 attempts. At 5'10" and 225 pounds, the bruising third-year back consistently exhibits a strong finish and low pad level on interior gap-blocking runs. With 2.13 yards after contact per attempt, Gray leads all Patriots running backs in that category this season.
Ridley himself had showed signs of rebounding from a disappointing 2013 campaign. His career-low 3.6 yards per attempt mark is misleading, as he demonstrated improved vision and elusiveness running behind a tattered offensive line in the first month. Had he stayed healthy, it seems likely that Ridley's yards per carry mark would have nudged over 4.0 and that he would have recorded his second 1,000-yard campaign.
Brandon Bolden remains a special teams contributor, while rookie James White is not yet ready for significant snaps, a notion set forth by his subpar preseason. The Patriots do not employ any dominant game-changers at this position, but the cerebral backs do have complementary skill sets, which should allow the running game to continue skating by.
Grade: B-
Wide Receiver
3 of 10
For a while, it appeared this season's passing game was going to become a 2013 redux. The Pats became overly reliant on Julian Edelman last year, and while "Minitron" continues to pace this unit, there are other players who have since provided complementary options.
Edelman is where this discussion needs to start, however. With 54 catches and 556 yards through nine games, Edelman is roughly on pace to match his career-best 2013 campaign. As he was last year, Edelman has run the full route tree as both a slot receiver and in-motion "Z" flanker, serving as the primary option on numerous plays. Edelman's 75 targets account for 44.6 percent of all targets to Pats wide receivers, illustrating how he has remained a Welkerian safety blanket for Brady.
However, it is Brandon LaFell's emergence that has made this unit a true net positive. LaFell was quiet over the first month, but has since compiled 25 catches, 329 yards and four touchdowns in the past four contests. As the team's top option at the "X" split end, the 6'3" LaFell represents New England's best perimeter option since Randy Moss' departure.
Unlike Moss, however, LaFell's value is not as a deep threat, but rather as a complete receiver whose route-running and feel for body position allows him to run a fuller route tree. Consequently, LaFell's square-ins and comebacks have become signature drive-starters for the Pats, as his 18 first downs over the past four games ranks fifth-most among receivers over that span, per Pro-Football-Reference.
The rest of the unit has been considerably more disappointing. While he was arguably the team's MVP in a Week 7 win over the New York Jets, Danny Amendola has seen a drop in snaps and production. Confined exclusively to the slot on three-receiver packages, Amendola has played just 43.4 percent of the snaps this season, accruing just nine catches for 82 yards.
Brian Tyms provided a pleasant surprise upon returning from his suspension, as his leaping 43-yard touchdown against the Buffalo Bills was one of the season's brightest highlights. That play still stands as Tyms' only reception of the season, but he has at least been on the game-day roster this season, unlike Aaron Dobson. The former second-rounder has been arguably the team's most disappointing player, sinking deep down the depth chart and appearing like another sunk cost.
Still, LaFell's presence and Edelman's consistency give this unit a solid grade. Injuries to either would be disastrous, though, as the depth is questionable at best here.
Grade: B
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Tight End
4 of 10
It is hardly a secret that Rob Gronkowski's health holds the key to New England's Super Bowl aspirations. Though Gronk was shaky over the first month in playing limited snaps, he has finally worked up to full speed and recaptured his customary All-Pro form.
Despite playing a relatively modest 67.1 percent of the snaps thus far, Gronk has re-established himself as the league's top tight end by virtually any statistical measure. Gronkowski leads all tight ends in receptions, yards per game and targets, while ranking third with eight touchdowns. PFF ranks him second in yards per route run (minimum 25 percent of snaps), illustrating his efficiency on a per-play basis.
As one might expect, the red zone is where Gronkowski has truly reshaped the Patriots offense. After ranking 18th with a red-zone touchdown percentage of 54.6 at the end of September, the Pats have scored touchdowns on 62.5 percent of their red-zone trips over the last three games. Gronk himself has turned seven of his nine red-zone targets into touchdowns, good for a remarkable 77.8 percent scoring rate. Only Julius Thomas has exceeded Gronk's seven red-zone touchdown receptions.
While Gronkowski is arguably the most important non-quarterback on the roster, Tim Wright has also played an underrated role in goosing the Patriots' offense. After playing only 50 snaps the first month, Wright has since become a staple in New England's base 12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB). His five-catch, 85-yard performance against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5 was vital for a team facing a crossroads. Moreover, Wright represents a dangerous red-zone target when teams double Gronk, catching three red-zone touchdowns to help form an irrepressible tight end tandem near the goal line.
Michael Hoomanawanui and James Develin are depth options at this point, but both have provided capable blocking in power personnel. Develin in particular has endeared himself to fans as a battering ram and occasional play-action target.
So long as Gronkowski is healthy, the Patriots will be able to flummox opposing defenses and force them into undesirable matchups. No. 87's long-term health is always tenuous, but with a full-strength Gronk the Pats offense is as dangerous as any in the league.
Grade: A
Offensive Line
5 of 10
The team's most beleaguered unit over the first month, the offensive line has since stabilized after unearthing the stability that eluded them throughout September. The starting five of Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell and Bryan Stork is not perfect, but it is clear that this group possesses the grit and chemistry necessary to allow the skill positions to thrive.
Solder and Vollmer have especially secured the bookends after some early-season struggles. Vollmer has been steady outside of a tough Week 1 against Cameron Wake, but Solder's turnaround has been an underrated factor in the offense's improved overall health. After conceding three sacks and four hits over the first four games, Solder has allowed just one sack and two hits over the preceding five games. Last week highlighted the tackles' progression, as they conceded just one sack, three hits and three hurries to Denver's All-Pro edge-rushing tandem of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.
On the interior, Wendell has exceeded expectations more than any other offensive starter. Following a rough 2013 at center, Wendell signed a modest two-year, $6.85 million deal with less than $1 million in signing bonus, leading some to project him off the roster in the preseason. However, Wendell has thrived at right guard (while also playing center in Stork's stead), allowing three hurries, no hits and no sacks over 135 pass-blocking snaps at the position.
Connolly and Stork have also been fairly steady, though both have missed multiple games with injuries. Stork has been up-and-down as the center, as one would expect for a fourth-round rookie. Nonetheless, even with the occasional penalty or missed block, Stork has exhibited a nasty edge and physicality in the middle. There will be growing pains, but considering that Bill Belichick gave Stork the job in the fourth quarter of a one-possession game against the Oakland Raiders, it is clear that the Pats hold a great deal of faith in the rookie.
The depth here is shaky, as reserves Marcus Cannon, Jordan Devey, Cameron Fleming and Josh Kline have all struggled in starting opportunities (though Cannon has rotated with Vollmer at right tackle). The miserable opening month lowers the grade a bit, but this unit on the whole is trending upward.
Grade: C+
Defensive Line
6 of 10
Chandler Jones' injury had the potential to cripple this unit, but thus far the Pats have held things together with rookies and Scotch tape. There's not enough depth here for the defensive line to become a considerable strength, though schematic alterations have kept things afloat.
Virtually every advanced metric sees this defensive line as a roughly league-average unit. The Pats' sack percentage of 5.26 over the past three games without Jones ranks 22nd in the league, per TeamRankings.com. Meanwhile, Football Outsiders ranks the D-line 22nd in run defense based on adjusted line yards and 13th in pass defense based on adjusted sack percentage.
Nevertheless, this should not diminish iron man efforts from Rob Ninkovich and Vince Wilfork. The former has played a remarkable 91.8 percent of the defensive snaps, accruing four sacks and consistently setting the strong-side edge against the run. Ninkovich's run-stop percentage of 5.5 ranks 11th among all 3-4 outside linebackers (his official position, though he essentially acts as a defensive end).
Wilfork's comeback from a torn Achilles has been even more remarkable. For a 33-year-old behemoth to play 76.3 percent of the snaps after such a debilitating injury is nearly unfathomable, yet Wilfork has been his typical All-Pro self, defying the expected aging curve. Wilfork's plus-6.6 run defense grade ranks eighth among all 3-4 defensive ends, highlighting his ability to two-gap and control the interior from any position along the line.
Jones' right end spot has seen a turnstile in his absence. Dominique Easley and Zach Moore rotated during the Week 8 game against the Chicago Bears, while Akeem Ayers played nearly every snap at the position in Week 9 against Denver. Moving forward, look for Ayers to play the position, as he possesses the athleticism and length to mirror Jones' two-way role, with an emphasis on pass-rushing from a variety of techniques.
The depth here should improve after the signing of veteran Alan Branch and the return of nose tackle Sealver Siliga from short-term injured reserve. Branch and Siliga can spell Wilfork in the interior down the stretch, with Chris Jones and Casey Walker likely on the periphery of the roster as the line gets healthier.
This unit's primary focus moving forward will likely be on stopping the run game. New England has had a few slipshod efforts in that department, most notably in games against the Dolphins, Chiefs and Jets. And yet, considering the strength in the back seven, even average play will not deter the Pats from putting together a top-10 defense.
Grade: B-
Linebacker
7 of 10
Given that the Patriots play the majority of their snaps from sub-package personnel, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower are going to take nearly every snap for this position the rest of the season. Though that leaves the Pats with no margin for error in terms of injury luck, both Hightower and Collins have proven versatile and durable in accepting increased roles over the past month.
Jerod Mayo's season-ending knee injury robbed this defense of its hub, the heady jack-of-all-trades that held a multitude of important roles. While neither Hightower nor Collins can totally replicate Mayo's skill set, the pair have formed a two-man committee to fulfill important roles in coverage, edge-rushing, interior blitzing, run-fitting and play-call organization.
Despite missing two games with a knee injury, Hightower has experienced a breakthrough campaign in his third season. The former first-rounder is no longer a pure "Sam" linebacker, having spent significant snaps at inside linebacker, outside linebacker and defensive end this season. Without Mayo, Hightower now plays the majority of his snaps as an off-line middle linebacker, where his cumulative plus-8.7 grade ranks fifth at the position, despite playing up to 150-200 snaps fewer than the other top-graded middle linebackers.
Collins has experienced a more inconsistent sophomore campaign, not a totally unexpected development given the big jump in responsibilities and expectations. His inconsistencies in coverage have been particularly concerning, as he has conceded a reception once every 10.3 coverage snaps, which ranks a middling 24th among inside linebackers. On the bright side, Collins has been noticeably more active and physical since Mayo's departure, accruing 23 tackles and eight quarterback pressures over the last three games.
Trade acquisitions Ayers and Jonathan Casillas should also bolster the depth and provide the starters the occasional breather in sub-packages. We've already discussed Ayers' role as a likely edge option, but Casillas could serve as a coverage linebacker when Collins and/or Hightower blitz the A-gap. At the very least, the two veterans provide playable options in the event of an injury, while undrafted rookie Deontae Skinner also looms on the practice squad after receiving some playing time in base packages earlier this season.
Grade: B
Secondary
8 of 10
Along with Brady and the passing game, this is the other half of the formula upon which New England's championship hopes rest. The secondary has experienced some turbulence, particularly in the first month, but the pass defense has since stabilized to become the defense's biggest strength.
Overall, numbers suggest that the Pats have not been a particularly potent pass defense. Football Outsiders ranks their pass defense 16th overall, while Advanced Football Analytics ranks the Pats 13th in pass defense success rate. However, while the inconsistent pass rush can leave the secondary exposed at times, the last two weeks against Chicago and Denver have illustrated the havoc New England's big press coverage corners can inflict on a passing game's rhythm.
Darrelle Revis has mostly been his lockdown self, apart from a couple blips against Oakland and Kansas City. Revis' plus-6.6 overall grade ranks 10th among cornerbacks, and opposing quarterbacks have compiled a meager 73.4 quarterback rating when targeting the Pats' top corner. New England is able to utilize Revis in a variety of coverages and alignments, as he represents the cornerstone for this unit.
Devin McCourty and Brandon Browner aren't far behind Revis in terms of importance to the defense. The former fulfills a role no one else on the roster can touch, serving as an elite center fielder who provides the safety blanket for the corners to funnel their receivers toward. Browner's relentless mugging has already drawn seven penalties in three games, but he is also one of the few corners in the league capable of neutralizing freakish tight end mismatches like Julius Thomas and Martellus Bennett.
In the pleasant surprise department, Patrick Chung and Kyle Arrington have emerged from rough recent campaigns to fulfill important roles. Chung is a fixture as a hybrid box safety/linebacker in big nickel packages, but has also received more coverage snaps against two-tight end packages. Meanwhile, the oft-criticized (and unfairly so) Arrington has conceded a 79.4 quarterback rating to opposing quarterbacks. Arrington is perfectly playable as a pure slot corner, as Pats fans who still treat him as a whipping boy now appear hopelessly ignorant.
It hasn't all been perfect, however, as the Pats' young defensive backs have seemingly all regressed. The trio of Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon have all slid down the depth chart after fulfilling vital roles in 2013. With the Pats moving toward a more physical brand of coverage, none appear particularly well-suited for the system, as Dennard in particular has struggled with double moves downfield.
Nevertheless, all have experience and provide important depth if/when injuries strike. As tenuous as things are on the front seven, the secondary looks like the deepest unit capable of carrying the defense.
Grade: B+
Special Teams
9 of 10
Per usual, the Patriots possess one of the best special teams units in the league. Bill Belichick has always invested more resources than most teams on the third phase, and the Pats have ended up with the third-ranked special teams unit by Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.
Stephen Gostkowski continues to be one of the league's best kickers, as he has gone 24-for-25 in field-goal attempts this season. His lone miss came after a low snap from long snapper Danny Aiken, who has been shaky at times this season. Gostkowski's kickoffs also result in near-automatic touchbacks under normal weather conditions, providing a field position advantage for the Pats.
Ryan Allen has been a little shakier, as he ranks just 23rd in the league with 38.7 net yards per punt. Allen has also had a punt blocked against Miami, the Pats' first blocked punt since 2012. However, the second-year punter continues to entice with his leg strength, as punts like his 67-yarder against Denver can be invaluable in flipping field position.
Julian Edelman has been mostly quiet in the punt return game, apart from his 84-yard touchdown against the Broncos. Before that touchdown, Edelman was averaging just 9.8 yards per return, which would have set a new career low. Nevertheless, his explosive track record makes him a safe proposition to continue holding the role.
Belichick continues to de-emphasize the kick return game, refusing to commit to a pure returner for the second consecutive season. Danny Amendola showed some promise against the Jets, returning four kicks for an average of 26.3 yards during that game. Amendola has also occasionally spelled Edelman on punt returns over the last two weeks.
The coverage game remains excellent, led by special teams captain Matthew Slater. Slater leads the league with 10 special teams tackles, even as he plays through a nagging shoulder injury. With top-end talent in all four phases of special teams, this unit will not represent a pressing concern this season.
Grade: A
Coaching
10 of 10
It seems ironic to praise Bill Belichick the coach, given that much of his excellence this season stems from difficulties Bill Belichick the general manger created. Nonetheless, Belichick and the coaching staff deserve immense credit for not only holding together an ostensibly fractured squad but somehow propelling them to a higher level and maximizing their capabilities.
Belichick has faced scrutiny for dubious morality in the past, such as Spygate and his tendency to see players as commodities, coldly selling high on numerous veteran fan favorites. But Belichick's brilliance as a roster-building architect and coach had never come into question until this season, when even the smartest writers (subscription required) believed that Belichick had torpedoed his roster in the offseason.
Since then, Belichick has made some tangible adjustments to complement the palpable sense of urgency that entered Foxborough following the Week 4 debacle against the Kansas City Chiefs. With injuries thinning out the front seven, Belichick has switched to a more versatile 4-3 "Over" system, utilizing mixed coverages and hybrid gapping concepts to keep offenses off balance. Essentially, Belichick has managed to accentuate the defense's strength in the secondary while beefing up the run defense and experimenting with more blitz patterns.
Offensively, Josh McDaniels has committed stronger to the running game, maintaining New England's ability to exploit teams through the air with play action. The switch to 12 personnel has been key, as the playbook has opened up considerably after a stagnant and frustrating first month.
Of course, peaking midseason does no good, as the 2007 Patriots discovered. On the heels of the team's biggest win, many are now praising the Patriots as the league's top team. Belichick's new challenge is to keep his team locked in over a difficult monthlong stretch following the bye, ensuring that the Pats sustain the same intensity and attention to detail that has paid dividends over the last five games.
Grade: A
Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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