College Football Conference Power Rankings Post-Week 10
We are two-thirds of the way through the regular season, which means enough time has passed to rank the 11 FBS conferences and have it mean something.
A lot can change between now and bowl season, but a 10-week sample is enough with which to make some telling judgements.
This list relied heavily on the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, an opponent-adjusted efficiency metric whose predictive powers get stronger as the season goes on (i.e., as more data becomes available). Unless otherwise noted, all mention of team rankings on the slides that follow (and there are a lot) refer to F/+.
Did the SEC retain its top spot despite the impotence of its lesser division? Is the Pac-12 the nascent juggernaut some projected at the start of the year? Which power-five conference ranks the lowest, and which group-of-five conference exceeds the rest?
Sound off below to let us know what you think.
11. Sun Belt
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| % of Teams | – | .09 | .09 | .18 | .64 |
The Sun Belt is even worse than it appears on the table above.
The sole Top 50 team (Georgia Southern) checks in at No. 46, and the only other Top 75 team (Arkansas State) checks in at No. 75. To wit, 100 percent of the Sun Belt falls outside the national Top 45, and 91 percent of the Sun Belt falls outside the national Top 74.
That 64 percent of Sun Belt teams rank outside the Top 100 is the worst of any conference—and that, too, is even worse than it appears at first glance. Four of those bottom-grouping teams (New Mexico State, Georgia State, Appalachian State and Troy) rank among the seven worst teams in the country.
Georgia Southern has been a legitimately nice story and almost beat NC State and Georgia Tech in nonconference play. But even the Eagles are a bittersweet conference leader. Because they are in the first year of their FBS transition, they are not eligible to win the league they have dominated or play in the postseason*.
It's been that kind of year in the Sun Belt.
*If you're so inclined, however, you can sign the petition on change.org to help get Georgia Southern bowl-eligible!
10. MAC
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| % of Teams | – | – | .15 | .31 | .54 |
The MAC is the only conference without a team in the national Top 50. Its highest-rated team is Western Michigan, which has enjoyed a fine year under head coach P.J. Fleck but isn't on par with previous MAC flag-bearers such as Northern Illinois and Ball State.
The falloff of Northern Illinois, which ranks all the way down at No. 95, has been the MAC's most troubling development of the season. The Huskies are 6-2 overall but lost a home game by 17 points to Central Michigan, a result that validates their low ranking.
But the MAC does have one sliver of hope: the youth of its best teams' head coaches. Fleck is 33 at Western Michigan, and Matt Campbell is 34 at Toledo (the only other Top 75 team in the league).
As long as those guys don't get poached by bigger schools in the immediate future, this conference might rebound nicely.
9. Conference USA
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| % of Teams | .08 | – | .08 | .54 | .31 |
Marshall is the only Top 25 team (besides Notre Dame) to hail from a non-power conference, sneaking in ahead of Duke at No. 25.
But the rest of C-USA has done it no favors.
Louisiana Tech is the only other team in the Top 75 but doesn't even play the Herd during the regular season. And six of the seven teams ranked between No. 76 and No. 100 (Middle Tennessee State, UAB, Western Kentucky, Florida International, Rice and Florida Atlantic) rank among the bottom 10 of that grouping.
In other words, 69 percent of C-USA ranks outside the national Top 90.
According to Brian Fremeau's strength of schedule ratings at BCFToys.com, Marshall has the easiest schedule in the country. Part of that has to do with its nonconference opponents. Part of that has to do with missing out on Louisiana Tech. But most of that has to do with the fact that C-USA just isn't very good at football.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
8. American Athletic
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| % of Teams | – | .09 | .36 | .18 | .36 |
The American was conceived as a sort of middle ground between the power five and the group of five, a conduit between the best leagues in the country and the worst. Up until last year, the former Big East still received an automatic bid to one of the BCS bowls.
But the first year of the College Football Playoff has seen the American stripped of that privilege...and also of its best team, Louisville, which defected to the ACC. Both of those things have sunk the American to its current position, i.e., below the midpoint of FBS conferences.
The five AAC teams that rank inside the national Top 75 (Memphis, Central Florida, East Carolina, Cincinnati and Houston) are tied atop the conference with a 3-1 league record. Memphis ranks the highest, but none is discernibly better than the other four.
Also, SMU is the worst team in college football.
7. Mountain West
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| % of Teams | – | .25 | .17 | .33 | .25 |
The Mountain West does not have any great teams, but it does have a lot more good teams than the other non-power leagues.
Boise State and Colorado State are both candidates to sneak into an access bowl although the Rams need some help to get there. They only have one loss to Boise State's two, but their one loss came head-to-head at Boise State, giving the Broncos the division tiebreaker.
According to the CFP's official website, the selection committee is responsible for selecting "the highest-ranked champion from the five conferences without New Year's bowl contracts." Champion.
If Boise State wins out, it will nullify Colorado State's attempt to make an access bowl. But would the committee pick a two-loss Boise State team over an undefeated Marshall team? Based on schedule, that wouldn't be as counterintuitive as it sounds.
The MWC is a (much) tougher league to win than C-USA.
6. FBS Independents
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| % of Teams | .25 | .25 | .25 | – | .25 |
Always the toughest "conference" to rank, the FBS Independents come in at a solid No. 6 thanks to Notre Dame's CFP candidacy.
But the Irish rank all the way down at No. 22 on the F/+ ratings, which puts this position in doubt. If they lose one of their remaining games against Arizona State (No. 21), Louisville (No. 17) or USC (No. 23), the Independents do not have a contender to hang their hat on.
If not for Taysom Hill's injury at BYU, the Cougars would be good enough to compensate. But ever since Hill went down, their team rating has gone down correspondingly. And Navy, while solid, is 4-5 with curious losses against Rutgers and Western Kentucky.
The MWC is creeping up fast.
5. Big Ten
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| % of Teams | .29 | .29 | .29 | .14 | – |
The Big Ten slots 58 percent of its teams in the national Top 50, but that number is a bit misleading. The four teams that fall in the second grouping above (Iowa, Maryland, Penn State and Minnesota) all rank between No. 41 and No. 45.
So yes, the Big Ten slots 58 percent of its teams in the national Top 50.
But it only slots 29 percent of its teams in the national Top 40.
Every other power-five conference has a higher percentage of Top 25 teams (between 33 and 43) than the Big Ten has Top 40. The No. 4 conference on this list slots 50 percent of its teams in the Top 27, the No. 3 conference slots 58 percent of its teams in the Top 34, the No. 2 conference slots 57 percent of its teams in the Top 30, and the No. 1 conference slots 36 percent of its teams in the Top 10.
In short, the Big Ten is not in danger of dropping below the FBS Independents or the Mountain West. No power conference ever is. Ohio State, Michigan State and Nebraska all rank inside the Top 15, and Wisconsin (No. 24) is not far behind Notre Dame (No. 22).
But compared with the other power conferences, the Big Ten is more than just last. It's a distant last. That doesn't mean it should get shut out of the Playoff, necessarily, but it's something the committee will consider if a one-loss team emerges from the league.
4. Big 12
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| % of Teams | .40 | .10 | .30 | .10 | .10 |
The five best teams in the Big 12 can hang with the five best teams in any other conference. The problem is what happens behind them.
Oklahoma, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor and West Virginia all rank in the Top 27, but the next Big 12 team does not show up until Texas at No. 62. That's a 35-team drop between the worst team in the top half of the conference and the best team in the bottom half.
And that, my friends, is patently absurd.
Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech all had varying hopes of being good this year, but each team in that trio has underachieved.
If even one was playing at a Top-50 level, the Big 12 might have moved up a spot. If two were playing well, it might have leaped all the way up to No. 2. As it stands, however, there is no way to move a conference so devoid of a middle class any higher than No. 4.
3. Pac-12
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| % of Teams | .33 | .33 | .17 | .17 | – |
The Pac-12 has not been the juggernaut many expected (or hoped for) this preseason, but that does not mean it has been bad.
In fact, it might still be the deepest conference in the country. The only Pac-12 teams that rank outside the Top 75 are Colorado (No. 76) and Washington State (No. 78). Every other conference has at least one—and in most cases more than one—team outside the Top 80.
But the Pac-12 is hurt by a lack of quality at the top. Oregon is ranked No. 2, but none of its other league-mates are in the Top 15. The other four power conferences have three, three, three and five teams in the Top 15, respectively.
No Pac-12 team is undefeated in conference play, and only Oregon and Arizona State have less than two overall losses. The depth of this league has done it no favors in the race to make the Playoff.
But in a vacuum, depth is still looked at as a good thing.
2. ACC
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| % of Teams | .36 | .36 | .21 | .07 | – |
The ACC gets a bad rap, but the numbers say it has been the second-best conference in college football this season. And they say that, unexpectedly, despite not being sold on Florida State (No. 8).
Instead, the ACC has been buoyed by depth in its top two-thirds. Miami has been playing like a Top 15 team, and Clemson—provided quarterback Deshaun Watson is healthy and in the lineup—could hang with just about any opponent on a neutral field.
(The craziest part of that? Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya and Watson are both true freshman. This might be the start of something big.)
The ACC has five teams in the Top 25 and three more (Duke, Boston College and—somehow—Virginia Tech) ranked between No. 26 and No. 30. It has been a strangely competitive league from top to middle, and if Florida State navigates its way to a 13-0 record, there should be no argument about its worthiness for the Playoff.
1. SEC
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| F/+ Rank: | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100 | 101+ |
| # of Teams | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| % of Teams | .43 | .36 | .14 | – | .07 |
The SEC is closer to the pack than it has been in previous seasons.
The West division has been exactly as good as advertised, placing four teams in the Top Five and five teams in the Top 10. Its seven teams have lost 14 combined games—13 to one of the other six teams.
The SEC East, however, has been exactly as bad as advertised. It's the only power-conference division without a team in the national Top 19. Its highest-rated team is Georgia at No. 20, and its next highest-rated team is Missouri all the way down at No. 35.
Compare this with the other power-five divisions:
| Best Team | Second-Best Team | Two-Team Average | |
| SEC West | AUB (1) | MSST (3) | 2.0 |
| Big Ten East | OSU (7) | MSU (11) | 9.0 |
| ACC Atlantic | FSU (8) | CLEM (13) | 10.5 |
| ACC Coastal | MIA (12) | LOU (17) | 14.5 |
| Pac-12 South | UCLA (16) | ASU (21) | 18.5 |
| Big Ten West | NEB (14) | WIS (24) | 19.0 |
| Pac-12 North | ORE (2) | STAN (33) | 22.5 |
| SEC East | UGA (20) | MIZZ (35) | 27.5 |
As bad as the East has been, however, the West has been strong enough for the SEC to keep its place atop the mountain.
That is not the "SEC Bias!" talking—for the sake of transparency: I'm a New Yorker who grew up rooting for a Big Ten school, then attended a different Big Ten school, then transferred to a small private school in Los Angeles with no football team; why on earth would I be biased toward the SEC?—it's just the plain and simple truth.
"[SEC teams] go on the big stage, and they win big games," said Ohio State graduate and ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit, per Chance Linton of 247Sports. "What do you want us to do, ignore them?"
When Herbie has a point, he has a point.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
