Portland Trail Blazers Must Overachieve Again to Matter in Western Conference
With an uncanny ability to avoid the injury imp and previously unseen production levels from nearly all key components, the Portland Trail Blazers were a force in the NBA's treacherous Western Conference last season.
This year, the challenge is greater than merely repeating that success. The Blazers must continue climbing up the conference ladder, a taxing test sure to require internal growth, better balance and similarly infrequent trips to the training room.
Obviously, quite a few things need to fall in Portland's favor for all of the above to come to fruition. But, in so many ways, that's precisely what led the Blazers to becoming shadow contenders out West last season.
"Few teams can claim to have enjoyed such a charmed season in 2013-14: A 54-win Portland team seemed to max out its potential behind great health, career years from nearly every starter and an unforgettable three-pointer by Damian Lillard to eliminate Houston in the first round," wrote Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver.
Based on their career per-game averages entering the 2013-14 campaign, the Blazers should have planned on getting 69 points a night from their five starters: Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez. They got 84.4 points out of that group instead.
Three of those starters—Lillard, Matthews and Aldridge—set new personal bests in scoring. Lopez (11.1 points per game) missed matching his his career high by 0.2 points per game (11.3). Batum (13.0) easily outperformed his career scoring average (11.5).
The fact all of these breakout years happened concurrently was not simply coincidental. Portland's front office had assembled a talented, complementary starting five, and head coach Terry Stotts showed the vision needed to bring all of the puzzle pieces together.
"The starters in Portland have constructed an offense against which it's impossible to load up," ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz noted last December. "It's a testament to careful roster construction and to a mindfulness that...diverse skill sets need to complement one another on the basketball court."
That quintet compiled an impressive plus-8.5 points per 100 possessions net efficiency rating during its time together, a number that checked in ahead of the San Antonio Spurs' league-leading plus-8.1 mark.
Yet, one could argue the most mind-numbing figure on Portland's stat sheet had nothing to do with quality. Rather, one simple, quantifiable statistic was responsible for turning the most heads: Games played.
There were 12 players in the entire NBA who started all 82 games last season. Four of them suited up in Stotts' opening lineup: Lillard, Matthews, Batum and Lopez. Aldridge, the lone exception, started 69 games, a number cleared by only 78 other players across the league.
Considering the Blazers received just 23.6 points a night from their reserves (the fewest in the NBA, per HoopsStats.com), the importance of keeping their starters on the floor is impossible to overstate.
The Blazers' bench should be better this season. Not only did Portland add proven commodities Steve Blake and Chris Kaman to Stotts' second team, it also starts this campaign with a healthy C.J. McCollum, the 10th overall pick in 2013.
Even with the added depth, though, the Blazers will still lean heavily on their starters. Blake (21.7 minutes per game) and Kaman (21.0) are the only reserves who received double-digit-minute workloads during the team's first three games of this season.
Granted, injuries can derail any team at any time. But potential problems could be even more concerning in Portland. After all, the team's incredible run of luck in that department last season netted nothing more than 54 wins and the fifth overall seed in the West.
But the Blazers need more than health to avoid regression. They also must find the consistency that eluded them in 2013-14.
The team's performance was essentially a story with three acts. The Blazers stormed out to a 24-5 start and closed the campaign by winning nine of their final 10 games. In between those torrid runs, though, they were a sub-.500 team (21-22).
The margin for error in this conference is wafer-thin. Just ask the Phoenix Suns, who missed the 2014 postseason festivities despite rattling off 48 victories.
A setback can be a death sentence in the West. And the Blazers are starting this season on rocky ground after having suffered consecutive losses to the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors.
More concerning than the losses themselves is the manner in which the Blazers have dropped those contests. Their biggest weapon from last season, offensive efficiency, has yet to make an appearance.
Portland currently sits a disappointing 18th in the category, down 13 spots from where it finished last season. Matthews (53.7) and Aldridge (47.4) are the only starters shooting above 46 percent from the field. Batum (34.5) and Lillard (26.8) are trapped below the 40-percent mark.
While it's far too early to panic, this is still an issue that needs to be addressed.
"Our offense hasn't been as sharp as it was last year or as sharp as we want it to be," Aldridge said, per Joe Freeman of The Oregonian. "I think our execution isn't as sharp as it needs to be, especially with guys not being in a really good rhythm right now."
Even in early November, the clock is ticking for the Blazers to figure this out. It never stands still in a conference this deep.
With the injury-riddled Oklahoma City Thunder reeling, the Blazers have the opportunity to claim both a Northwest Division crown and a top-tier playoff spot no one thought would be available.
But the healthy Denver Nuggets are also eyeing the division title. And whenever the Thunder can shake the injury bug, they'll surely make a run of their own.
Outside the division, teams like the Warriors and Dallas Mavericks have their own sights set on swiping a top-four seed. Moving down the pecking order, the Suns, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings are all hoping to quench their playoff thirsts.
These clubs are not going to wait for the Blazers to find their form. The longer it takes for them to ignite their engine, the steeper their climb back to relevance becomes.
And remember, this team isn't trying to relive last season's success. With Aldridge, Matthews and Lopez all working on the final year of their contracts, there is an obvious need to maximize this team's full potential sooner than later.
It took a miraculous blend of overachieving and impeccable health to work up some magic in Rip City last season. This time around, the Blazers need a similar concoction of career years and injury relief, plus added doses of defense and a punch from the second team, to keep progressing through the minefield that is the NBA's Wild West.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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