Power Ranking Top Playoff Contenders by Their Offenses
Auburn handed Ole Miss its second loss of the season on Saturday, knocking out the last College Football Playoff contender that relied chiefly on its defense to win.
With the Rebels seemingly eliminated from the playoff discussion, its starting to look a lot more likely, if not downright probable, that we get an offensive-centric final four.
But which contender's offense is the best?
To answer that question, this list relied heavily on the S&P+ rankings at Football Outsiders, an opponent-adjusted efficiency metic that weighs myriad factors such as success rate, explosiveness, etc.
But the S&P+ rankings were not adhered to stringently when the eye test or knowledge of injuries came into play. Ultimately, this was a subjective judgement call on which offenses I would prefer. The S&P+ ratings informed but did not dictate that judgement.
Sound off below to let me know where you disagree.
Note 1: The 10 teams used for this list were the Top 10 teams from Sam Chi's mock CFP rankings for Bleacher Report
Note 2: All national yardage stats via cfbstats.com
10. Arizona State
1 of 10
S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 34/23/60
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 23/22/46
It's weird to think of Arizona State as a playoff contender in spite of its offense. If I told you before the season that it would be 7-1 after 10 weeks, you would have thought that Taylor Kelly, D.J. Foster and Jaelen Strong were the biggest reasons why—correct?
But Kelly missed a good chunk of the season with a foot injury and hasn't looked right in his first two games back. Foster has been great out of the backfield as a receiver but hasn't lifted ASU above No. 60 in rush offense S&P+. And Strong…well, never mind.
Strong has been exactly as good as advertised.
The Sun Devils offense has a ceiling higher than the way it has been playing. Kelly shaking the rust off is imperative. The last three games have all come against very good defenses (Stanford, Washington and Utah), but it's odd to see a Mike Norvell offense this out of sorts.
9. Kansas State
2 of 10
S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 30/34/44
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 59/50/58
Kansas State does not have a bad offense by any means. Quarterback Jake Waters is plucky and underrated, and Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton form a nice receiver duo. Plus…I mean…they have a Gronkowski.
You can't be that bad with a Gronkowski.
The problem with the Wildcats is the lack of a consistent running game. They have not been bad in this regard, but they have not compared with the teams ahead of them on this list. They rushed 30 times for 40 yards against Auburn, a Mike Leach-ian average of 1.33 yards per carry that, in many ways, cost them the game.
This passing offense is good, but it's not good enough to balance out Kansas State's relative rushing problems. KSU ranks No. 97 in the country in S&P+ on offensive passing downs.
8. Notre Dame
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S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 17/19/30
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 36/27/60
Notre Dame has bolstered its numbers against some inferior competition, hanging 48 points on Rice, 50 points on North Carolina and 49 points on Navy.
When Everett Golson is on—as he has been for stretches of every game this season—he is a singular weapon and one of the best players in college football. But when he is not on, he has been more turnover-prone than the QB of any other team on this list.
The running game has been a revelation since Tarean Folston started getting the majority of the touches three games ago, but it still ranks toward the bottom of the teams on this list. Arizona State's improved-but-not-quite-good defense will be a good litmus test in Week 11.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Michigan State
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S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 8/5/19
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 10/43/17
Michigan State has made immense offensive improvements since the beginning (and even the end) of last season.
It ranks No. 5 in the country with 45.5 points per game, No. 17 with 254.9 rushing yards per game and No. 6 with 9.1 yards per pass attempt. The QB-RB-WR triplet of Connor Cook, Jeremy Langford and Tony Lippett is one of the five best in the country, giving the Spartans one of the most balanced units in program history.
The only reason MSU doesn't rank higher is because of red-zone struggles against quality opponents. It scored touchdowns on just three of seven trips against the two best teams it has played, Oregon and Nebraska. It will lose its second game of the season if it doesn't finish drives against Ohio State on Saturday.
This defense is no longer good enough to overcompensate.
6. TCU
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S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 14/33/4
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 3/6/33
TCU could not get its offense going against West Virginia, which in parts can be attributed to the weather, the atmosphere and the improvement of the West Virginia defense.
It can also be attributed to some serious offensive problems.
The Mountaineers played press man-to-man coverage against TCU's receivers, daring Trevone Boykin to beat them on the outside. Boykin had been sublime coming into the week, even being mentioned as a Heisman candidate, but was not up to the task in Morgantown.
"After the 82 [points scored in Week 9 against Texas Tech], we knew what was gonna happen," said head coach Gary Patterson after the game, per Ben Glicksman of SI.com. "It never comes that easy."
For a slightly better offense, though, it does.
5. Florida State
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S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 7/8/6
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 34/9/102
Florida State has played some of the worst offensive halves of any playoff contender. Even if you toss out the Clemson game, which was played without suspended quarterback Jameis Winston, it still had the first half of the Notre Dame and Louisville games.
But Florida State has also played some of the best offensive halves of any playoff contender. Winston's near-perfection against Notre Dame and Louisville come to mind. The Cardinals entered last week with the best defense in the country, per the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders.
The Seminoles dropped 35 second-half points on them in Louisville.
Winston might be the best player in the country, and wide receiver Rashad Greene is on the short list of Biletnikoff candidates, but FSU cannot climb any higher until it fixes the bugs along its offensive line. A unit projected to be one of the best in the country has been an abject disappointment, and it has been that way since Week 1.
Also, even though it's promising for the future to see the Noles relying on blue-chip freshmen such as running back Dalvin Cook and receivers Ermon Lane and Travis Rudolph, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence as the games, situations and stages start to get bigger.
True freshmen are still true freshmen.
4. Mississippi State
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S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 3/6/5
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 8/38/16
Mississippi State might have the best backfield in the country. Quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Josh Robinson have both played at an All-SEC level this season, the latter picking up the slack when Prescott has struggled the past two weeks.
Because of that backfield, the Bulldogs have been able to run the ball effectively and keep their offense on schedule. They are No. 1 in the country in unadjusted success rate (52.1 percent), doing damage on first and second down to avoid getting stuck in third down.
If it wants to move up this list, however, Mississippi State needs to get receiver Jameon Lewis back to full strength. He was its best playmaker last season but missed two games with an injury before returning to catch one pass for two yards the past two weeks.
That Mississippi State has been so good without Lewis is encouraging.
But it needs to get him going against Alabama and Ole Miss.
3. Alabama
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S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 4/2/20
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 11/24/30
Blake Sims has been more than just fungible as Alabama's quarterback; he has been downright impressive. He is running the offense with confidence, hitting his marks, delivering the ball with accuracy and making a good amount of plays with his legs.
Good as Sims has been, though, this offense has revolved around Amari Cooper, the best receiver in the country. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has made a point of funneling the ball to Cooper early, as evidenced by his 48 first-half receptions and 812 first-half yards.
No other player has more than 704 first-half receiving yards.
Entering the last stretch of the season, the only question the Crimson Tide have to answer revolves around their offensive line. Ranking No. 20 in rush offense S&P+ is low for a modern Alabama team, and its best run-blocker, true freshman left tackle Cam Robinson, suffered a high ankle sprain against Tennessee before the bye.
According to Michael Casagrande of AL.com, Robinson has not been ruled out for the LSU game this weekend, which is big. But if he can't play or shows an obvious sign of being hurt, it would throw a huge wrinkle in Alabama's left-side-of-the-line-heavy ground game.
2. Auburn
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S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 2/1/8
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 18/77/9
Auburn's offense is peaking at the end of the season for the second straight year. It just ripped off five offensive touchdowns (including four in a five-possession span) against an Ole Miss defense that had allowed just eight touchdowns the entire season.
Woah.
Looking at the numbers, the scariest thing about Auburn's offense is the efficiency with which it has passed the ball. Last year, this was a run, run, run-first offense that could throw just well enough to win. This year, it ranks No. 1 in the country in pass offense S&P+.
The biggest reason for that jump has been the improvement of Nick Marshall, but a shoutout also goes to the receivers. JUCO transfer D'haquille Williams has looked like a future first-round draft pick, and Sammie Coates is one of the best vertical weapons in the sport.
Cameron Artis-Payne is finally emerging as the lead tailback this offense requires, too. If the ground game works as well as it did against Ole Miss for the rest of the season, watch out.
1. Oregon
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S&P+ Offensive Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 1/3/1
Yards Per Game Rank (Total/Pass/Rush): 5/16/25
Oregon ranks No. 1 in total offensive S&P+, despite a two-game stretch against Washington State and Arizona in which left tackle Jake Fisher was injured and its offensive line morphed into a sieve.
A big—no, a massive—part of that is to the credit of Marcus Mariota, who is well on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy. His QB rating of 187.21 falls in line with previous Heisman winners, and that's before one even factors his 410 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs.
Freshman power-back Royce Freeman and sophomore Thomas Tyner combine with Mariota to form the best rushing offense in the country, bar none. And preseason questions about who would catch the ball have been answered by a stable of receivers/tight ends that includes six players with at least 19 receptions and 297 yards.
"Oregon's offense appears to be peaking again, just in time for next week's showdown with another physical defense in Utah," wrote Matt Brown of Sports on Earth. "After the way the Ducks handled Stanford [45-16 in Week 10], though, it's hard not to like their chances to run the table and secure a playoff bid."
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
